Saturday, October 17, 2009

NY23 UPDATE: Why is Sarah MIA?

Sarah Palin could make a huge difference in the NY23 special election, and everybody knows it. I hinted at this earlier today -- "Lipstick, baby!" -- and as I like to remind my readers from time to time, there are no accidents.

Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman is in the fight of his life against the GOP establishment's hand-picked RINO, in a crucial election that Hoffman's media coordinator Rob Ryan says is "a referendum on the future of the Republican Party."

One point to make clear: No official in the Hoffman campaign has said a word to me about Sarah Palin. But some of Hoffman's supporters are heartbroken that Sarah -- whom I dubbed the "Sweetheart of the Heartland" last year -- hasn't joined the fight against Dede Scozzafava, whom Michelle Malkin has described as "ACORN-Friendly, Big Labor-Backing, Tax-and-Spend Radical in GOP Clothing." Allow me to address myself directly to Mrs. Palin:
Doug Hoffman is your kind of candidate, his supporters are your supporters, and the people at the RNC and the NRCC who are siding with Scozzafava . . . well, ask around, ma'am. Your enemies are Doug Hoffman's enemies.
A smart reporter doesn't burn his sources, so I'll exercise some professional discipline here, and let my friend Josh Painter at Texas for Palin speak:
In New York's 23rd District, for example, Sarah can set herself apart from Newt Gingrich by giving her support to Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, as have Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee. Gingrich, rather inexplicably, has joined the RNC and NRCC in endorsing liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava. . . . It is in individual contests like these where Sarah Palin can go against the GOP establishment and still keep those friends she has and needs inside the Beltway.
Sorry, Josh, I'll disagree here: Forget about everybody "inside the Beltway," Mrs. Palin, and think about the people in NY23 -- decent, honest people who are working their hearts out and praying as hard as they can. The battlefield is there, the battle is underway, and every minute counts. (I'll also dare to disagree with my friend Dan Riehl, but it's merely a disagreement. Nobody smart ever picks a fight with Dan.)

Big money is flooding into NY23, and Doug Hoffman needs every penny he can get. Trust me when I say that there are people working overtime for Hoffman who haven't gotten paid yet and don't know when or if they'll get paid. (Mitt Romney won't give Hoffman a dime, so scratch Mitt from your 2012 list.)

Money isn't everything in politics, however. It wouldn't cost Palin a penny to support Hoffman. All she has to do is issue a 200-word press statement -- or record a 30-second video and put it on YouTube -- and she could make all the difference in the world in NY23.

We are 17 days from Nov. 3. Every minute counts, and let me quote one more source:
"You and I have a rendezvous with destiny. We will preserve for our children this, the last best hope of man on Earth, or we will sentence them to take the last step into a thousand years of darkness."
-- Ronald Reagan, Oct. 27, 1964
This is a time for choosing, Mrs. Palin. A battle rages in upstate New York. Doug Hoffman needs help. And people are praying.

UPDATE: Welcome, Instapundit readers! Prayers are answered. No blogger could be more grateful than I. But sometimes, when it's been weeks without a 'Lanche, I start worrying . . .


  1. Stacy,
    Winning generals pick their battles carefully. Should she back Hoffman and he lose, think what Andrew Sullivan would write once he is done...celebrating.
    Should he win, she's essentially poked the GOP in the eye.
    It's a big, big gamble.

  2. I don't think she loses anything if Hoffman loses, but she does draw a line in the sand which differentiates herself from the RINO pack.

    At this point who cares what Andrew Sullivan writes?

  3. @Dan,
    Oh, if the state-run media doesn't smell blood, they'll throw ketchup and write obituaries for Sarah if she back the upstart and he loses.
    Same holds true for BHO in the NJ/VA gubernatorial races, which she's also sat out.

  4. I think Palin is too valuable a tool to use in a special election that will have no effect on congress.

    A defeat would only paint her as an ineffective weapon and the media would celebrate it. While a win, though inspiring will not have much of an effect on congress.

    If the goal is to defeat the Rino in this election then her presence would assure that, but I just don't see enough plus for the cost.

    I do admit it would be fun to find out.

  5. I believe when Sarah resigned she committed herself to supporting candidates who stand for the principles she espouses. I don't think she will allow the possibility of someone else's loss to keep her from endorsing someone, once she's ready to make that endorsement. Just my opinion.

  6. I am so tired of political maneuvering. If Sarah (whom both I and my wife love) doesn't get into this fight - almost the archetype of the "conservative vs. liberal" fight - then she will break our hearts, because it means that she really isn't all about conservative values.

    We'll be broken hearted but we will move on and we will make ourselves heard. It will just be without Sarah.

  7. I am surprised at the notion that Andrew Sullivan actually thinks. I think all his ramblings are the by-product of whatever drug he happens to be using at the moment.

  8. I believe he/his campaign would need to ask for her help. I thought she made it clear that she will become involved with like-minded politicians when asked by them.

  9. Sarah, a Conservative? Gaffaw! That's like saying Barack Obama is really an American!

    ******runs away******

  10. Did Hoffman ask for her help? If he asked for her help, I'm sure she'd be happy to give him a cash injection and cut a video. You need to ask before you can receive.

  11. The people in NY 23 won't be let down of the RINO or the democrat win, because they are not "working their hearts out and praying" as Stacy put it, instead they are voting for liberals.

    Obviously, there are enough people in this country who don't care about their individual liberty and will give it all up for a government handout. That seems to be the prevailing mentality. So if the citizens of NY 23 put a liberal into office, then it is what they are choosing. People want to be taken care of, and they think that liberals will change their diapers and wipe their chins.

  12. Why would you run away from a computer, patty?

  13. I believe Joe Wilson came into some cash recently too, wasn't he the generous sort? I thought I read something to that effect, but may be mistaken.

  14. The lack of evidence isn't evidence... or something like that.

    For all we know Palin asked and was politely declined... or she has something else going on... or she's not aware because she hasn't been contacted.

    I think that Sarah's voice would help. But my opinion isn't the one that counts.

  15. Yes, runaway troll, far away, she was in Upstate NY seemingly a lifetime ago and garnered a crowd of 20,000. I don't think
    that Hoffman, unlike Christie and MacDonnell would say no,

  16. If he wants her help shouldn't he ask for it, Stacy? I'm not familiar with congressional politics, but wouldn't it be strange if she interjected herself into a campaign that didn't even ask for her assistance?

  17. for the record, I can think of a couple of reasons Sarah might stay clear not the least of which is fear of being seen as a hindrance rather than an asset, but did Doug step up to the plate when she and her family were getting grilled? If he needs help, he can ask too.

  18. Oh, if the state-run media doesn't smell blood, they'll throw ketchup and write obituaries for Sarah if she back the upstart and he loses.

    They'll do that either way. She is their Emmanuel Goldstein and Must Be Hated.

  19. Palin is too smart to inject herself into NY politics where the Right is ruled by a corrupt RINO-whipped GOP who give us crap candidates year in and year out. That's why I quit them and went Conservative. And you also aren't factoring in the Democrat voting machine there - the Democrats have ruled NY State for years. Just like Illinois and Detroit and all the other areas they've ruled for decades - dying cities, shrinking population base, record unemployment, high crime, corrupt politicians and the stupid voters keep putting the Dems back in. This is what's happening in NY and this is why Palin would be crazy to get into that viper's nest.

  20. I say that all of us who can contact Sarah, say throgh Facebook for exanple, should do so.
    Let's politely encourage her to support Hoffman.

  21. I suggest that everyone who can contact Sarah, through Facebook for example, do so.
    Let's politely encourage her to support Hoffman.

  22. Perhaps it would be better if we politely encourage Hoffman to ask Sarah for her support.

    It's not likely that she would interject herself into the battle in NY-23 uninvited. But by the same token, there's no good reason why former Governor Palin would withhold her endorsement or SarahPAC dollars if only Hoffman's campaign lets her know that they want it.

    - JP

  23. Has Hoffman asked? Was he one of those "conservatives" who trashed her last year? Does he appreciate her help, or drags being a Palin puppet? The media who could not stand Palin would pile on him. I bet if she's asked, she would help.

  24. "It wouldn't cost Palin a penny to support Hoffman."

    It very well might cost her a LOT of pennies (in PAC and/or campaign contributions).

    It might also cost her the GOP's 2012 presidential nomination.

    I'm not saying that rebellion against the GOP Establishment is wrong mind you ... but you guys are in the middle of it, and it may look bigger and more powerful to you than it actually is.

    If she backs a third party candidate this year, that GOP Establishment may be able to successfully pressure incumbent GOP congresscritters and aspiring GOP candidates NOT to ask for her help next year, on the grounds that she's a turncoat ("you can have NRCC money, or you can have whatever you think Palin can bring in -- you can't have both").

    And if that happens, she loses the face time that goes with stumping around the country for those candidates. Which means that she loses the later financial and voter support that such stumping cultivates.

    If she backs a third party candidate, there's also a good chance that Faux "News" will retire her to "occasional funny story about three-legged dogs and UFO watchers" status instead of continuing to hold her up as a GOP/conservative icon.

    Maybe she really is as pure and uncalculating as you think/hope she is, but I'm betting not. You don't work your way up the ladder from mayor to governor by being dumb, especially when you're actually a big-government progressive like Palin who has to successfully convince others that you're a "conservative."

  25. Kn@ppster, Sarah Palin must do what Ronald Reagan did years ago. She must in Reagan's own words "revitalize the Republican Party." That has to be done, also as Reagan said, with "bold colors -- no pale pastels."

    She really doesn't have that much to lose inside the Beltway. Those in the GOP establishment who don't like her aren't likely to change their minds regardless of what she says or does. And if she should throw her support to Hoffman, it won't cost her the support of those in the GOP establishment who do like her, including Fred Malek and others, IMO.

    She would be in good company should she endorse Hoffman. That would put her with Fred and Jeri Thompson, both of whom have excellent ties to the GOP establishment.

    Vichy Republicans are killing the GOP, just as were in Reagan's day the country club Republicans. Sarah Palin cannot beat Romney by playing Romney's game. Ronald Reagan drafted the blueprints for Republican victory three decades ago. All Sarah Palin has to do is dust them off and revitalize the GOP to those specifications.

    - JP

  26. Why should the former governor of another state and last year's candidate for the office of Vice President of the United States get involved in what is basically a pretty obscure (on the national radar) race in upstate New York? That would be a turn backwards for her, when she now needs to look forward, and upward, to the White House.

    As for RINOs, well, as a citizen of Alaska and then as governor, she handled RINOs in Alaska very well; and perhaps through that experience she has learned a lesson that is now telling her that the RINOs in New York state can be best handled by the citizens of New York.

    Palin's best help to New Yorkers has already been given to an example. Now it is up to New Yorkers to act in their own self-interest. If they can't do that, well, no amount of outside help, not even from Sarah Palin, is going to do it for them. This is their battle, to win or lose as they choose.

    Go! Sarah, go!

  27. Why should the former governor of another state and last year's candidate for the office of Vice President of the United States get involved in what is basically a pretty obscure (on the national radar) race in upstate New York?

    Please pay attention. It's an off-off-year congressional election that, if a Republican were in the White House and a Democrat won it, would be trumpeted all over the known universe as an example of where the country "really wants" to go.

    That's what usually happens, anyway. Generally when a Democrat is in the White House and a Republican wins an off-off-year congressional election, yeah, it is pretty much ignored by the Lamestream Media.

    Also, Stacy: the ad down on the left side is taking forever to load. I adblocked it and improved the loading time considerably.

  28. "Please pay attention. It's an off-off year...would be trumpeted all over the known universe as an example of where the country 'really wants' to go."

    It doesn't matter: Trumpeters have a real credibility problem these days--a lot of people have realized they're lousy heralds at best, and manipulative push-pollers at worst.

    What's really at stake here, of course, is the usual American thing: how the citizens of the 23rd District wish to be represented, nothing more (or nothing less, if one happens to be one of those citizens).

    Some libertarians and other folk would like to use this special election to leverage up third-party candidates under a sort of "tea-partier" banner, but that's not the real issue here.

    And perhaps there are even some Palin ill-wishers out there who, frustrated that they can't bog her down with details in Alaska any more, would now like to bog her down with relatively petty races between now and the next general election. For former governor Palin, the road to the White House does not run through such places as New York's 23rd District (and she knows it, apparently), although it could eventually for Doug Hoffman: I wish him well.

    Some here have mentioned Mrs. Palin's trip to Auburn. There's an Alaskan connection in Auburn, and that was the basis for the governor's trip there. This special election is a whole different thing that just happens to be taking place in the same (large) state.

  29. I think the explanation is simple. Mrs. Palin is a libertarian Republican and Doug Hoffman is not.

  30. Where's Sarah?

    Sarah's watching as any shrewd general preparing for D-Day (E-Day?) 2012 would.

    I think Sarah is planning to do to the DC political class what she did to the Alaska political class.

    In Alaska, she could manage the job largely herself since the Alaska elites were small in number. DC presents a different problem, requires a different strategic approach, and requires Palin tactics applied differently than in Alaska.

    Others have discussed Sarah's resigning as strategy and tactics. For lesser polls - it's suicide. For Sarah - it gives hope that we can trust her with Power. It was our founding fathers' trust in Washington's use of power enabling them to trust our young nation with a powerful chief executive - the President. Trust is a highly valuable political coin. Rarity increases value.

    The DC political class is much larger than Alaska. It is better organized. It knows s Sarah’s planning something. It saw the tea parties - they know how many showed on 9/12. It is made up of Republicans and Democrats. It controls over 40% of the economy.

    Sarah is likely using NY-23 to gage the strength of her future conservative Army.

    In WWII, US military planners wanted to hit Germany hard in Europe. Churchill counseled against it. Churchill noted US forces were not as strong as US leaders thought and the Germans were not as soft as US generals thought. Churchill recommended North Africa for a reason. It was untested troops battling tested troops in a relatively unimportant strategic setting. Churchill bloodied the US Army BEFORE they had to take on Europe.

    NY-23 is the equivalent of North Africa for the conservative movement. The Washington DC GOP and NY GOP may be corrupt, but they are not intellectually stupid. The Dems might win this for a year, but in 2010 the GOP will likely win it back no matter what.

    Sarah is not Patton. She needs to become Washington and Eisenhower.

    She's not going to risk credibility in NY-23 until she knows how strong the team is. If the Team is really strong - Sarah is not needed. If Sarah is needed to win, then she has to be Patton, forsaking Eisenhower. Good for NY-23, Bad for USA.

    Patton could win battles for sure. Unfortunately, he could not win the war globally - it took a team lead by Eisenhower. Just as Washington won with a team - a team that included the French, Sarah needs to win with a team. Sarah needs to find Pattons, not be Patton. What better way to find winners than let winners win the battles they should.

    We're the conservative, self-reliant free people. We're the ones who need to win this. We’re the ones who have to SHOW self reliance. I and many other folks - mostly who showed up in DC - are annoyed at people constantly looking for 'help.' Free people need little help - we need initiative and victory at the unit level before we talk about winning at the strategic level.

    Which is the better army in 2012 - the one embodied by serfs of Detroit and other cities, or one with free citizens? If you say citizens - then make it so. I have donated. I am willing to volunteer from VA. I am volunteering in Northern VA - we have a battle here. It looks good now and McDonnell will win. He needs to win big and drag as many conservatives across the House of Delegates line as he can - we need a blowout

    Governing the US is more than speeches. Dear Leader is making a strategic decision to go for the radical win now, dropping Marxist incrementalism that has gone before. If they get lots of stuff done, he's betting we'll never re-trench and in another 10-15 years the Marxist job will be done and Dear Leader will come back – possibly to lead - he's young enough. How's that for a nightmare?

    ****WE**** need to be the Pattons. We need to run through liberalism like crap through a goose. We'll find our leaders in victory.

    If Sarah is doing what I hope she's doing, we don't help her by being no better than OBOTS. We need to be free citizens and our own Pattons.

  31. Palin could make a "huge difference?"


    As a simpleton? As a national joke? As a quitter? As--as--as, what?

    Oh yeah! As unintended (to her, 'cuz she's dumb) comedy, and yet further proof that the right-wing in America is bereft of ideas and dependent on a reality show-level loser such as this Alaskan asshat.

    But thanks for the laughs; I guess that Dubya wasn't the only punchline in your befuddles bad of tricks.

  32. Tony Maglione, Plattsburgh, NY
    I am in the 23rd District and I can tell you that history is being made. Doug Hoffman has hundreds of volunteers working for him and has opened offices all over the district. The other two have absolutely no ground game. A McLauglin and Associates poll demonstrates that only 24% of northern New York voters want to vote for a Democrat, 58% want a conservative Republican, and 8% want a liberal Republican. The RINO Republican CAN NOT win this race. In addition to being too liberal, she is just not likeable. That is why the RNC had not given Scozzafava a dime 'til Friday. She had no money left and couldn’t continue. So in order to save face, the Republican Party went into panic mode and (I think) got an unwitting Gingrich to write this endorsement. I am sure he regrets this decision as (I believe) it will seriously harm his chances for 2012. Hoffman has the only campaign with hundreds (and very soon thousands) of people working the ground game that will ensure turnout on election day ... and that is what it's all about. Remember Rove's ground game in 2004. Because of the aforementioned, Doug Hoffman's chances of winning are good. In backing Doug Hoffman, Sarah Palin would be backing a winner and further solidify her conservative base for 2012.

  33. JohnnyRussia,

    Please explain to the readers here how it is that an idiot like Palin brought healthcare - the crown jewel of your White House Genius Obama - to a grinding halt which has not moved forward since. And that with what? A couple lines in a facebook entry.
    Also, please explain to the readers here why you feel the need to attack her relentlessly if she's such a moron. What is it you Lefties really fear?

  34. To Patrick

    >>> A person who is lurking in Huffington Post is ignorant of what CONSERVATIVE really means.

    It's internal discussion here. GO AWAY!

    To RSMCCAIN: It's a case of McDonnell. They may be conservatives. But they are ashamed of their kind. SAD.

  35. Sarah endorses Hoffman!

    Go Sarah!!!