Tuesday, November 3, 2009

NY23 Election Results HQ; UPDATE:
Team Hoffman predicts 'close' victory; UPDATE II: Numbers in the war room; UPDATE III: HOFFMAN CONCEDES

12:35 a.m. WED. 12/4: "This one was worth the fight," Doug Hoffman said in his concession speech. "This is only one fight in the battle."

Now all the pundits -- who, as Michelle Malkin observes, claimed that tonight didn't mean anything -- will tell us what it means. Nice work if you can get it.

I'm on deadline for the American Spectator, so not a complete wrap-up just yet, but when Hoffman's speech was over, one of his supporters said two words that struck me: "Twelve months."

Exactly. And only four months until . . .

Well, it's cold in upstate New York in November. But it's warm in Florida in August. Hit the tip jar.


11:32 p.m.: Neither the Owens campaign nor the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is declaring victory. As Ryan told me shortly after 11 p.m., "You don't see the Owens people jumping for joy. . . . They know the same thing we know" -- namely the uncertainty of unreported precincts and uncounted absentee ballots.

11:25 p.m.: "I think it's very premature," Hoffman campaign spokesman Rob Ryan said of the report that NBC News had called the race for Democrat Owens. "There's a buncn of big question marks out there." With many thousands of military absentee ballots and key precincts not reporting, the Hoffman campaign is ready for a long night.

11:20 p.m.: Hoffman campaign sources report that only 50 percent of the votes in Oswego County have been counted.

11:15 p.m: NBC has reportedly crawled out on a limb and called Democrat Bill Owens a winner. Beware of that.

10:51 p.m.: Clinton County is more than 75% counted, and the numbers there project well for Hoffman. A campaign source just said, "We're doing good in Oneida and St. Lawrence [counties], but we don't know if that's being reflect in the numbers" being reported on TV.

The top command of the Hoffman campaign is in a private banquet room dubbed "the war room," where they are crunching the numbers precinct by precinct. It's already been a longer night than most expected and guests at the party upstairs are getting restless.

Problems are reported with a total of 11 voting machines (4 in St. Lawrence County and 7 in Fulton County). With 63% of precincts reporting, Owens leads 49% to Hoffman's 44%, a margin of about 3,400 votes, with 5% for Dede Scozzafava. Many military absentee ballots (Fort Drum is in the district) are yet to be counted.

10:29 p.m.: Reports of voting machine malfunctions in St. Lawrence and Fulton Counties. National Review is a bit worried. The Hoffman campaign is still optimistic, but this long delay is stressful. As the percentage of returns increases an early lead for Democrat Bill Owens is shrinking. Whereas Owens led by 8 points with 21% reporting, it's now 5 points with 39% reporting. Stay tuned.

10:11 p.m.: At this point, with about 20% of precincts reporting, it appears that Democrat Bill Owens is returning very strong numbers -- indeed, suspiciously strong numbers -- in Dede Scozzafava's home territory of Jefferson County.

10:05 p.m.: There have been reports of problems with voting machines in the district. However, early returns from Clinton County -- home territory for Democrat Bill Owens -- indicate a Hoffman victory. Total turnout for Republicans was stronger than for Democrats in that key county.

In a conference call with bloggers, Susan B. Anthony List President Marjorie Dannenfelser just described the apparent conservative surge as "an organic movement that is rising up." SBA list put more than 200 volunteers into the 23rd District and distributed more than 100,000 pieces of literature on behalf of the Hoffman campaign.

9:20 p.m.: Watertown office of Hoffman campaign reports "strong" Republican turnout. GOP turnout in Plattsburgh also reported strong, lower turnout for Democrats.

9:15 p.m.: Hoffman press aide Sandy Caligiore: "We will win a close election." Conservative Party official Jim Kelly said he expects Hoffman to win a 42%-45 plurality in the three-way race. Remember that, even though Dede Scozzafava suspended her campaign on Sunday, her name is still on the ballot.

9 p.m.: Polls just closed. The Watertown (N.Y.) Daily Times is planning to livestream the vote count. Will update frequently with the vote count, related news, and reports here from Hoffman campaign headquarters in Saranac Lake.


  1. Looks like I picked a bad day for game night Talisman not withstanding

  2. we will see , at last check like 1/3rd of districts have reported, and 2 havent yet

  3. why in the sam hell would anyone vote for scazzofava at this point? it makes no sense.

  4. We're screwed. :-(

  5. I have faith...Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug.

  6. No were not , 1st its down to 4 percent via saratogan, plus we will campaign for hoffman in 2010 with full rnc, rncc, club for growth backing if he does not win, and as meatloaf says 2 out of 3 aint bad if we dont win

  7. c'mon mccain. you say you're a reporter? Tell us your boy is losin'

  8. Hoffman's gotta snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

    C'mon Hoffman!

  9. Like it or not, there are a whole lot of liberal Republicans who wouldn't vote for Hoffman. Plus, Dede's endorsement of Owen is making this a close race. Smart move by the Dems.

    Idiotic move by the NY State Republican Party not to compensate Dede somehow.

  10. Greetings, wingnuts.

    Just dropped by to gloat.

  11. fox just called it for owens at 11:56PM

  12. K-Lo is calling it for Owens. But then again, it is K-Lo.

  13. Thanks Stacy, Ali, 73wire, and all the boots on the ground guys and gals. Looks like, for now, we got a triple play, instead of the homerun, but, it's coming!

  14. Bummer, but still a shot across the bow to the GOP leadership, RINOs and IIRC the Democrat is not a s liberal as Dede and we get another shot in year.

  15. "Problems are reported with a total of 11 voting machines (4 in St. Lawrence County and 7 in Fulton County)."

    Yea, I bet...the results of the paper backup ballots won't be counted until tomorrow or until they get the number of ballots they think will defeat Hoffman. They had a plan B ready in case it was a close contest.

    Papa Ray

  16. What do you mean section 9? they gave her a million bucks! for a knife in our backs!

  17. I sense that there's gonna be a good bit of scrubbing & backtracking on righwing blogs, as regards what this race represents, if it turns out that the carpet-bagging conservatives don't pull it off... (Palin/Beck fatigue? A referendum on the tea party movement, rather than Obama? Or did it just become "a local race, with no implications outside of upstate NY?")

  18. Like it or not, there are a whole lot of liberal Republicans who wouldn't vote for Hoffman.

    Maybe a coalition between libertarian Republicans and socons would be useful after all. Eh. BD?

    (BD was giving me grief on another thread)

  19. At least gay marriage is being defeated in Maine.

  20. Well, I'm bitterly disappointed, but still it was a victory to get Scozzafava out of that race, and to send a mighty clear message to the establishment Republicans.

    We'll get 'em next time.

  21. Never forget: this is a good night for conservatives.

    We won VA and NJ, by higher margins than we took those states in '93.

    We broke the GOP's handpicked RINO and showed they ignore the actual GOP voters at their peril.

    A few months of one more Dem congressdrone in a House they already control is a small price to pay for that.

  22. If this was the first test of Tea Party power, Tea Party activists are more powerful than previously thought.

  23. The mere fact that it was so close is encouraging especially when scuzzbucket got more than 6,000 votes.

    In your country where it is not compulsory to vote, anything can happen.

    In my mind I have questions about those broken machines as well as the absentee ballots. I wonder how many dead people got to vote in the election and whether any disputed ballots would have made a difference to the outcome. Since ACORN and SEIU operatives were in the district did this make a difference. Certainly the low class act of the scuzzbucket did make a difference.

    Since Doug Hoffman did not dispute what could have been disputed, I think that he has been quite honorable and gracious in defeat.

    However, this is only a temporary thing unless this district has somehow changed substantially in the recent past.

    If Owens faces up to the fact that he has to face the electorate again in 12 months then it could be that he will act more like a Blue dog than some arrogant Pelosi type. The win was not exactly an endorsement.... so....

    On the other hand the Hoffman challenge should be a warning to your Republican party to vet their candidates more carefully. It should also cause some soul searching about going along with the extremist left-wing media. Scuzzbucket was not a moderate. She was an extremist liberal on most things...