Friday, October 24, 2008

Obama (still) buying the election

I blogged about this two weeks ago, and the buying of the presidency continues. During the first two weeks of October, the Obama campaign spent more than $100 million -- nearly $300,000 an hour, about 10 times what the McCain campaign spent. (Hat tip: Hot Air.)

As noted in this post earlier today, this is one reason why all the conservative complaints of media bias and criticisms of McCain campaign tactics are moot: When the opponent is burying you in TV ads -- better than a 2-to-1 advantage in swing states -- no tactic can be effectivc, and media bias has nothing to do with it.

PREVIOUSLY:

'It is a fact . . .'

From Maverick HQ:
It is a fact that Barack Obama was palling around with terrorists. It was a fact before Governor Palin said it in a fully vetted speech and it is fact today. It is bullshit to claim or write anything else.

The declarative English sentence is a thing of beauty. It would be nice if such clarity were more widely practiced.

Obama buries McCain in ads

According to Neilsen, measuring "ad units":
  • Ohio: Obama 13,289; McCain 5,606
  • Pennsylvania: Obama 9,546; McCain 4,740
  • Florida: Obama 15,887; McCain 4,662
It is pointless for Republicans to bleat about media bias at a time when Obama is out-advertising McCain by more than 3-to-1 in Florida, and more than 2-to-1 in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Obama raised $150 million in September. That's $5 million a day, which means that in the first 17 days of the month, Obama had raised $85 million -- more than McCain received in federal matching funds to last him from Labor Day to Election Day. There is no Republican campaign "strategy" that could possibly overcome such a lopsided cash advantage by the Democrat.

Ashley Todd's disgusting hoax

A lot of people jumped on this story with both feet, and now it's exposed as a lie:
Police say a campaign volunteer confessed to making up a story that a mugger attacked her and cut the letter B in her face after seeing her McCain bumper sticker. At a news conference this afternoon, offiicals said they believe that Ashley Todd's injuries were self-inflicted. Todd, 20, of Texas, is now facing charges for filing a false report to police.
Todd initially told police that she was robbed at an ATM in Bloomfield [Pa.] and that the suspect became enraged and started beating her after seeing her GOP sticker on her car.
Police investigating the alleged attack, however, began to notice some inconsistencies in her story and administered a polygraph test.
Fox News Vice President John Moody:
If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain’s quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting.
Exactly how a 20-year-old campaign volunteer came up with this stupid stunt -- hey, they've got video cameras at ATMs, you moron -- remains to be seen. (Ashley Todd's "blog" is cached.)

Michelle Malkin thought the story was fishy from the start because Todd refused medical treatment.

UPDATE: Ed Morrissey:
The College Republicans will have some explaining to do here.
Thursday, Ed interviewed two top College Republican officials who defended Todd's veracity:
I spoke with two executives at the College Republicans on the record about this story. Charlie Smith, the National Chair, and Ethan Eilon, the Executive Director, both say the photo is legitimate and that it came from Ashley Todd, the victim in this case. . . . .
Eilon spoke with her personally today about the incident and confirmed the above with me. He first met Ashley in June, when she came to DC for training with the College Republicans.
Did the training include how to file a false police report?

UPDATE II: Ace defended Ashley. Now, he's disgusted:
It's not just that she's corrupt and crazy. I mean -- obviously.
It's also that she's not even minimally competent at it.
The Republican Party is supposed to be Evil. Not "incompetent."
I assure you, Ashley, there is a difference.
This reminds me of the argument I make against people who want to legalize drugs. If you're stupid enough to get caught with dope, there is a Darwinian benefit to getting you off the street. If we can't outlaw stupidity, we can at least criminalize its consequences.

UPDATE III: Perp walk! And this:
"She hasn't really shown any obvious remorse," [Pittsburgh Police Lt. Kevin] Kraus said. "She's certainly surprised that it snowballed to where it is today."
Stupid people are always surprised by the disastrous consequences of their stupidity. If they weren't stupid, they would have foreseen the consequences. It is their lack of foresight that leads them to doing stupid things in the first place.

A rant remembered

Back in January, following the Florida primary, I uncorked a fusillade against the GOP Establishment's effort to shove Crazy Cousin John down the throats of an unwilling base:
Crazy Cousin John is to the conservative cause as a dog is to a fire hydrant. . . .
The GOP Establishment, attempting its patented "Harriet Miers Move," is trying to tell conservatives that we have no choice in the matter.
To which I proudly answer, "F--- You, GOP Establishment." . . .
Now, many of the same Establishment types who were reponsible for imposing the McCain campaign on the GOP are trying to muddy the water in an attempt to blame others for their own miscalculation. Hard-core McCainiac Tom Ridge, for one, and various anonymous McCain staffers, as well.

GOP to base: 'Drop dead'

No money for conservative candidates:
The Family Research Council's (FRC) political arm ripped Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) Thursday for withdrawing ad spending on behalf of two endangered Republican candidates.
FRC President Tony Perkins said in a letter to Cole, chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC), that the committee "is abandoning social conservative candidates" by pulling ads from the re-election races of Reps. Marilyn Musgrave (R-Colo.) and Michelle Bachmann (R-Minn.).
Tom Cole is the chairman, but he's not making the decisions, which are made by the professional staff. This is a synopsis of the basic problem with the national GOP -- the hired help at headquarters is running the party. The hired help aren't red-state stalwarts, and have nothing in common with the ordinary rank-and-file of the party. This cultural gap between the party elite and the rank-and-file has existed for years and has only grown worse during the Bush years.

The objectivity of beauty

Conservatives are indignant today over Kathleen Parker's suggestion that John McCain chose Sarah Palin as running mate primarily for her looks.

Does any conservative really wish to deny that good looks are an asset in politics? After all, which party put a bona fide Hollywood movie star in the White House?

Back during the GOP primary season, I argued that the tall, handsome millionaire Mitt Romney would be a better nominee than the old, short, bald guy. Independent voters are superficial and, other things being equal, will generally prefer the guy who "looks presidential" on TV -- a test that John McCain spectacularly fails.

Palin's beauty is not a political deficit, so why does Kathleen Parker assert that because Palin is beautiful, she is to be presumed unqualified? It's envy, motivated by the same sour-grapes psychology that caused so many Republican pundits to dismiss Romney as "superficial" and "slick."

The fact that Romney was able to talk meaningfully about economics -- another woeful shortcoming of John McCain -- was scorned as irrelevant by those who believed that the heroic biography would conquer all. Just like Bob Dole . . .

UPDATE: Linked by Daniel Larison:
As for Romney, he was considered superficial and slick because he seemed to have no core political beliefs that he would not abandon at the drop of a hat if there was some advantage in it.
The accusation that Romney was an unprincipled opportunist -- a flip-flopper -- didn't bother me very much, since at least he was flip-flopping in the right direction, whereas McCain seemed to believe that his stubborn advocacy of bad ideas (including amnesty for illegals) was a virtue in its own right.

I would further add, in response to Larison's criticisms of Palin, that there was no one on John McCain's short list of VP candidates (Tom Ridge? Joe Lieberman?) who would have met with Larison's approval.

Ironic note of the day

McCain campaign aides are accusing Sarah Palin of not being a "team player":
This faction has come to believe that Palin, perhaps unwittingly subconsciously or otherwise, has begun to play Sen. McCain off of the base, consistently and deliberately departed from the campaign's message of the day in ways that damage McCain. . . .
The complaints extend all the back to Palin's vice presidential vetting. Major disclosures, issue positions and associations did not come up, and the campaign was so overwhelmed with new information early on, it largely abandoned an effort to defend them individually.
Ironic, eh? Supporters of John McCain -- who just a few years ago reportedly considered switching to the Democratic Party, who wanted to name Joe Lieberman as his running mate, who wanted to fire SEC Chairman Chris Cox and replace him with Andrew Cuomo -- accuse Sarah Palin of disloyalty.

(Cross-posted at AmSpecBlog.)

Flaming skull at Ace's

Whenever he pulls out the skull, you know it's something big: Apparently, Team Obama disabled a verification feature in its online donation softway so that anyone (even "John Galt") can give money anonymously, or rather pseudonymously, or at least without a verified name and address.

Hey, man, $5 million a day, what do they care if it comes from "DooDad Pro" and "asdfadfqrew"?

Thursday, October 23, 2008

When in doubt, blame Bush

Joe Curl gives Maverick a chance to do what he does best -- bash Republicans:
Sen. John McCain on Wednesday blasted President Bush for building a mountain of debt for future generations, failing to pay for expanding Medicare and abusing executive powers, leveling his strongest criticism to date of an administration whose unpopularity may be dragging the Republican Party to the brink of a massive electoral defeat.
"We just let things get completely out of hand," he said of his own party's rule in the past eight years. . . .
"Spending, the conduct of the war in Iraq for years, growth in the size of government, larger than any time since the Great Society, laying a $10 trillion debt on future generations of America, owing $500 billion to China, obviously, failure to both enforce and modernize the [financial] regulatory agencies that were designed for the 1930s and certainly not for the 21st century, failure to address the issue of climate change seriously," Mr. McCain said in an interview with The Washington Times aboard his campaign plane en route from New Hampshire to Ohio.
"Those are just some of them," he said with a laugh, chomping into a peanut butter sandwich as a few campaign aides in his midair office joined in the laughter.
Notice he doesn't criticize Bush for supporting amnesty. Wonder why? Curl is giving the McCain campaign a chance to blame their defeat on Bush. However, McCain led Obama as late as Sept. 16, before he started blaming greedy Republicans for the financial crisis. If Obama had led all along, it would have been another story, but clearly McCain controlled his own destiny into September, then blew it. The "blame Bush" explanation won't work.

Bailout damages Chambliss in Ga.

John McCain isn't the only one suffering for his support for the $700 billion bailout. Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss is paying the price, too:
[Democrat challenger Jim] Martin's surge in the polls coincided with Mr. Chambliss' support earlier this month of the Bush administration's $700 billion Wall Street bailout package.
"That's when things started to fall apart for him," said University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock.
Please note that the collapse of support for Chambliss is not because Georgia suddenly became "progressive." It isn't because his Democratic opponent is charismatic or has a brilliant campaign strategy. It is solely because Chambliss supported the bailout. When people try to figure out what went wrong in 2008, they should not neglect the fact that the big-government approach to the financial crisis was overhwelmingly unpopular.

Libertarian populism, anyone?

Undercover agent on Ayers

"Eliminating 25 million people . . . and they were dead serious":

People have forgotten the 1981 Nyack armored car robbery involving some of Ayers' proteges, including Kathy Boudin, whose son was raised by Ayers and Dorhn after she was convicted for her role in a crime that took the lives of two policemen. People have forgotten that the 1970 townhouse explosion that killed three of Ayers' followers was caused by a bomb that was planned for a dance at Fort Dix, N.J.

Ayers planned a bloody revolution. Real people were killed by his followers, and many others would have died had they succeeded in their plans for a Marxist revolution. But nobody knows, and nobody cares, and thousands of college professors take his side, and all the most powerful institutions of the media ignore the fact that Ayers has blood on his hands.

UPDATE: Oh, yeah, and did I mention that Bill Ayers is a communist? He has never repudiated his status as a revolutionary.

UPDATE II: Michelle Malkin has more.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Academics support Ayers

Three thousand commie professors:
More than 3,000 educators nationwide, including six Brown University professors, have signed a statement supporting William Ayers -- the man Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain called a "washed-up terrorist" at the third presidential debate. . . .
In response to the McCain campaign's focus on Ayers' radical acts of the 1960s and 1970s, "Friends and supporters of Bill Ayers" are circulating a statement online to vouch for the professor he has become.
Check and see if your kid's professor is on the list. Meanwhile, Comrade Ayers and Comrade Dohrn have a new book coming out:
Arguing that white supremacy has been the dominant political system in the United States since its earliest days -- and that it is still very much with us -- the discussion points to unexamined bigotry in the criminal justice system, election processes, war policy, and education. The book draws upon the authors' own confrontations with authorities during the Vietnam era, reasserts their belief that racism and war are interwoven issues, and offers personal stories about their lives today as parents, teachers, and reformers.
Shut up, you racist honkies -- but keep signing those tuition checks so they can teach your kids to hate you!

Grrrrr. Palin on illegals

Interviewed by Univision, she says she supports a "path to citizenship" for illegals:
There is no way that in the US we would roundup every illegal immigrant -there are about 12 million of the illegal immigrants- not only economically is that just an impossibility but that’s not a humane way anyway to deal with the issue that we face with illegal immigration.
Gov. Palin, you have been deceived by the pro-amnesty crowd, who love to present this issue as a false dilemma, where we must choose between (a) amnesty for illegals or (b) a massive round-up of millions of illegals. This ignores the alternative favored by most opponents of amnesty, namely the attrition or "self-deportation" approach:
  • Enhance border security, to slow the influx of illegals.
  • Step up "interior enforcement," especially targeting major employers of illegal labor.
  • Authorize state and local officials to identify and detain illegals (which would result in greatly enhanced interior enforcement).
  • Disqualify illegals for public benefits.
We have seen, as in the example of Prince William County, Va., when local officials act to step up enforcement against illegals, the result is a net outflow of illegals. If similar measures could be enacted on a nationwide basis, many illegals -- unable to find employment, housing, etc. -- would leave the country (self-deportation) and there would be a corresponding decrease of new illegals arriving, as word-of-mouth spread in the sending countries.

Once a net outflow developed -- more illegals self-deporting than arriving annually, so that the illegal population was steadily decreasing -- two major benefits would become apparent. First, there would be decreased political pressure for amnesty. Second, voters would no longer feel that their communities were being overrun by an invasion.

If government at all levels could work toward this attrition strategy for a few years, it would alleviate the crisis mentality that has developed over the past 15 years. As long as our borders are so evidently out of control, with hundreds of thousands of new illegals arriving every year, citizens will rightly demand a crackdown, and it will be politically impossible to enact any kind of comprehensive overhaul of the system.

Even those who favor a "path to citizenship" for illegals (which I do not) must understand that voters will not support such a measure so long as the illegal population continues to increase daily. Those who dismiss voter concerns by talking about the impossibility of mass deportations are missing the point entirely.

House GOP fears a 'wave'

Paul Bedard at U.S. News:
A document provided to Washington Whispers from a House GOP official shows that they could lose a net 34 seats. That means the Democrats would have a 270-165 advantage in the 111th Congress. . . .
The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. "Rating 1" finds 10 Republicans "likely gone." Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8. Under "Rating 2," nine Republican seats are listed as "leaning Democratic." Under "Rating 3," some 22 GOP seats are listed as "true toss-up." The fourth rating, "lean Republican," finds 15 seats in the category that comes with this warning: "If there's a wave, some could be in trouble."

A couple of weeks ago, a poll showed that only half of adults realized that Democrats are now in control of Congress. Nancy Pelosi is able to avoid blame by pointing the finger at Bush, a luxury she'll lose when Obama's president.

'Frenzied aggression'

Somehow, I missed this last week:
The real enablers are demagogues like Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Michelle Malkin and Glenn Beck, who have made careers out of inciting frenzied aggression at anyone to the left of Joe McCarthy. Only now it seems that even these right-wing pundits have been outdone by their formerly loyal listeners. Coulter, whose contempt for Muslims ("invade their countries, kill their leaders and convert them to Christianity") is surpassed only by her scorn for liberals ("even Islamic terrorists don't hate America like liberals do"), has yet to call for the assassination of Barack Obama. But if she genuinely believes that liberals are more dangerous than Islamic terrorists, she should follow the courage of her convictions and do so.
Via Jamie Kirchick, a gay liberal who nonetheless dissents from the Obamaphile line:
What about the left's conspiracy theories? A not insignificant portion of liberals in this country believe that a small group of Jews, er, the "neocons," took control of the government following 9/11 to fight wars on behalf of Israel. Is not this slander as odious as the Internet rumors about Barack Obama?
The Left's pretended indignation at conservative "outrages" is just part of the propaganda intended to dehumanize the opposition. If you think this is bad, just wait until people begin to criticize President Obama's actual policy decisions in office.

Tony Blankley names names

The "me-too" conservatives:
Now, on the cusp of what some think will be a major Obama victory, we are beginning to see emerge what I will call "me-too conservatives" - initially amongst conservative commentators (politicians to follow). I have in mind, among others: Peggy Noonan, David Brooks, Chris Buckley, David Frum and Kathleen Parker.
Of course, they are not quite saying they are giving up conservatism for whatever it is Barack Obama would bring. They are initially focusing on style or, in the newly arrived cliche: temperament - a term made famous, interestingly, to describe FDR as possessing a second-class intellect but a first-class temperament.
They'll never forgive you for that, Tony.

Bay Buchanan banned from campus

Young America's Foundation reports:
Administrators at the College of St. Catherine in St. Paul, Minnesota -- the nation's largest Catholic women’s college -- unexpectedly blocked young conservatives on campus from hosting Bay Buchanan, a popular conservative commentator and U.S. Treasurer under President Reagan. The speech was scheduled for Wednesday, October 22, but was abruptly canceled after college officials deemed Ms. Buchanan's remarks on "feminism and the 2008 Election" too politically charged, citing concerns about the school's tax status. "Because we are a 501(c)(3) organization, the College of St. Catherine has sought to avoid any appearance of partisanship during the 2008 political season," said College spokesman Julie Michener.
That Ms. Michener can say that with a straight face is remarkable, considering the actions of her school's program, Voter Education 2008. Program-sponsored seminars have highlighted student agitators protesting the GOP's convention and featured a representative from the Joint Religious Legislative Task Force, which pushes for universal healthcare and minimum wage increases.
Interesting how this bogus non-partisanship always helps Democrats, huh? I suspect that St. Catherine's actually opposes Bay Buchanan because she's a real pro-life Catholic -- and heaven forfend that students at a Catholic school should ever be exposed to any such thing.

UPDATE: You don't suppose this has anything to do with George Soros spending big bucks to fool Catholics into thinking Obama is pro-life, do you? (Michelle Malkin has more about that.)

The political wife as prop

Mrs. Mahoney says, "See ya in court":
Six days after sitting silently at Democratic U.S. Rep. Tim Mahoney's side as he acknowledged causing "pain" in their marriage, Terry Mahoney filed for divorce Monday.
She filed a petition in Palm Beach County Court seeking the dissolution of their 23-year marriage, possession of their Palm Beach Gardens home and "a full accounting of all funds spent or dissipated by the husband within the last two years" -- the period since Mahoney was elected to Congress on a "faith, family and personal responsibilit" platform in the aftermath of the Mark Foley sex scandal.
Ed Morrissey comments:
In past political scandals involving sexual peccadilloes, the elected official usually hauls the wife on stage with him for the inevitable tearful apology. Eliot Spitzer and Jim McGreevy, among others, therefore managed to humiliate their wives even more by using them as human shields from the press. . . .
[W]hen the philanderer uses the betrayed spouse for political cover, that speaks volumes about the values that politician holds -- and "faith and family" aren't high up on that list.
(It should be noted that even Jesus recognized infidelity as grounds for divorce.) As with Spitzer and McGreevey -- and indeed, as with Bill Clinton -- it's obvious that Mahoney's promiscuity was habitual, not episodic. Mahoney wasn't a guy who fell prey to a moment of temptation and weakness, but rather a horndog who was continually on the hunt. Yet he found the married-man image politically convenient and so lived a life that was fundamentally false.

The Crisis in Pictures

Casey Research, a financial firm, has prepared a report called "The Crisis in Pictures," about the current financial crisis, which includes the chart below:

Following the collapse of the dot-com bubble and continuing into 2002, the Federal Reserve increased money supply by $1.4 trillion. To quote from the report:

[W]hen confronted with the bursting of the dot-com bubble, Fed Chairman Greenspan without hesitation poured unprecedented amounts of money into the economy, increasing the money supply at roughly four times the rate of GNP growth. . . . [T]he economic dislocations of the dot-com bubble went largely unresolved and, after a very brief hiatus, the credit bubble continued expanding… now with mortgage debt.

In other words, the underlying losses of 2000 were "papered over" by inflating the currency, but because the (debt-funded) money was funneled mostly into real estate, housing was essentially the only commodity that saw a price increase.

The full report is available via e-mail from Casey Research.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Grant Olan behind PA poll leak?

I actually know this guy:
Steve Corbett, a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, accidentally received a copy of an internal email sent by Grant Olin who heads the Wilkes-Barre headquarters of the Obama campaign. The email went to 627 Obama campaign volunteers in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton region, saying that Obama Headquarters reported an internal poll which shows that Obama is only 2 points up in Pennsylvania. Sean Smith, who is heading Obama's Pennsylvania campaign, was interviewed by Steve Corbett via phone at 5:35 today to discuss this. He said that Grant "went rogue", and aknowledged that Grant was "reprimanded" for this.
(Via Ace.) I'm finding it hard to believe Grant Olan (the correct spelling) "went rogue." He's a young lawyer from Chicago, about 29, intense, dark haired, a total True Believer in Obama.

I met Grant on the night of the North Carolina primary, which I liveblogged from the Obama campaign's Martinsburg, W.Va., headquarters. Late that night, the Obama crew went to a grocery store coffee shop to use their free Wi-Fi and file their nightly report on their canvassing effort. I spent a little time talking to Grant, who told me that he left his job at a law firm and took a substantial pay cut to work for the Obama campaign.

I next saw Grant in July in Wilkes-Barre, when I went to cover a McCain campaign event for Pajamas Media. Because I had difficulty logging onto the campaign's Wi-Fi system, I went to file my story at a coffee shop around the corner, where I ran into Grant. He was there doing a voter-registration event with his local Obama volunteers (I think they were trying to recruit more volunteers from the protesters who showed up at the McCain event). Again, we talked a while, and Grant told me a few stories about his canvassing experiences in the heart of Hillaryland (Luzerne County voted 3-to-1 for Clinton over Obama in the primary).

If Grant Olan released that internal polling data without authorization, I will bet it was because he was worried that Team Obama was taking Pennsylvania for granted. But if it's really a two-point race in Pennsylvania, the public polls have completely missed it -- six of the seven most recent polls show Obama leading by double digits.

However, Ed Rendell is reportedly worried, so maybe there's some kind of ginormous Bradley effect that the Obama campaign's internal polls caught, but the others didn't. Or maybe Grant Olan's just such a True Believer that a fit of Hope fever drove him into a state of paranoia. (Get well soon, man.)

CNN lies about Colorado pullout

Just plain wrong:
"It's not true," McCain spokesman Tom Kise responded to PolitickerCO.com. "I don't know what the hell they're talking about."
"We see the race tightening both internally and in public polling," said Jill Hazelbaker, McCain's national communications director, in a statement. "We are within striking distance in the key battleground states we need to win."
Via Michelle Malkin, who points out that Palin made three campaign stops in Colorado just yesterday.

And 'liberal' is code for 'stupid'

The paranoid hunt for racism in every possible criticism of Barack Obama reached new heights today, when a columnist for the Kansas City Star declared that "socialist" is "an old code word for black."

Next think you know, "Democrat" will be construed as a racist epithet.

'Bailout Ben' endorses Obama

Oh, this is rich. John McCain lost the election by making himself the No. 1 advocate of the $700 billion bailout cooked up by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Now that Bernanke's got his bailout, he endorses Obama.

First, it was Cakewalk Ken. Now it's Bailout Ben.

Douthatism, once more

Ross Douthat is laboring mightily to undermine the credibility of mutual friends who swear to me that Douthat is really a good guy. To wit:
[I]s opposition to wealth-spreading in principle really now a litmus test for being a conservative? I thought that being on the right meant that you wanted a welfare state that's small in size and limited in scope - that's what I signed up for, at least - and the most just and reasonable way to shrink and/or restrain the American welfare state that I can see is to make it more redistributive, rather than less so.
Over at AmSpecBlog, Phil Klein retorts:
Despite the best efforts of Douthat to turn conservatism into a watered-down form of progressivism, the term "conservative welfare state" is contradictory. Conservatism, at its core, abhors the welfare state . . .
Hear, hear! And I add my own commentary:
A very instructive phrase -- "that's what I signed up for" -- naturally leads to the question, when did Douthat sign up? Where? And with whom?
Douthat's problem is that he feels the need to describe a hypothetical condition, conservative governance as an ideal finished product: Exactly this much of a social welfare state, and no more.
Politics doesn't work that way. Politics is Newtonian, establishing an equilibrium between competing interests. Vis-a-vis the size-of-goverrnment question, you take your place on either side of the tug-of-war -- the federal government is either too big or too small -- and you start pulling as hard as you can.
I stand resolutely on the side of those who say the federal government is too big, too powerful, too expensive. It doesn't matter how small, weak or cheap I think the ideal government would be, since in living memory it has only grown, and grown, and grown. (One notices that progressive Democrats have never specified a final destination of "progress.")
If ever any meaningful reductions were made in the size, authority and expense of the federal government, then conservatives could argue over whether the next proposed round of reductions might be going too far. Since everything is now going in exactly the opposite direction, Douthat's hand-wringing over the ideal size of the social welfare state is moot.
It's too big now, and that's all that matters in practical political terms -- not that Douthat has anything useful to say about practical politics.
Since Burke first denounced the French Revolution, conservatism has always been a philosophy of opposition. and it looks like we'll be getting back to our roots soon enough. Jacobinism is once more triumphant, and if you listen closely, you can hear the tumbrels beginning to roll.

UPDATE: On reflection, I suppose this rant returns to my idea of how "Libertarian Populism" could appeal to Ordinary Americans. The argument that the federal government is too big and too expensive and too wasteful has the virtue of simplicity.

Since the federal government has been continually expanding since the 1930s, liberals essentially argue that government has not expanded fast enough or far enough. But every adult can remember a time when the government had not taken charge of some function that it now exercises.

Was life really so bad back then? Does the Ordinary American think that this increased federal role has really made an overall improvement in his daily life? Or, rather, does he sense that the federal government has generally made a botch of things?

There is a coherent argument to be made against the overgrown authority of Washington, D.C. This argument is both intellectually respectable and politically potent. When the conservative movement puts forward persuasive spokesmen to articulate this argument, the movement grows and succeeds. However, when the spokesmen are inarticulate or unpersuasive -- or when prominent spokesmen describing themselves as "conservative" begin making apologies for big government -- the movement weakens and fails.

If big government is "conservative," then exactly what is the conservative critique of liberalism? Where is the fundamental substance of disagreement? When conservatives abandon their critique of big government, the debate with liberalism becomes complex and confusing. Ordinary Americans are no longer presented with a conservative politics that is simple and coherent, and are easily attracted to another simple and coherent argument: Gimme, gimme, gimme.

The failure of Bush's "compassionate conservatism" is that, in abandoning a critique of big government, Republicans were left with no domestic-policy argument except cultural squabbles (e.g., Terri Schiavo) and, "Hey, isn't the economy great?" It's interesting to ponder whether this stance would have failed sooner, had it not been for 9/11, which allowed the GOP to win the 2002 and 2004 elections on the question of which party could best fight Islamic terrorism. But as the public wearied of (or changed its mind about) that issue, and as the economy soured, the GOP discovered it had no domestic argument at all.

If we are going to have big government no matter who wins the election, why not vote for the party that has been advocating big government all along?

Grover Norquist likes to talk about the "Leave Us Alone Coalition" -- that solid conservative constituency which stands resolutely against big government. The task of conservative commentators ought to be to persuade more people to join the "Leave Us Alone Coalition." If Ross Douthat wants to attack the "Leave Us Alone Coalition," he thereby makes himself an enemy of the only conservatism that can ever hope to exercise influence in American politics.

David Frum on 'terrible' presidents

The former Bush speechwriter speaks:
"The people who defend [Sarah Palin] have already given up any serious thought of Republicans' wielding governmental power anytime soon. . . . They have already moved to a position of pure cultural symbolic opposition to a new majority. The people who criticize her do so because we have some hope that we could be in contention in 2012, and there's some risk that she could be the party's nominee, and she'd probably lose -- and even if by some miracle she won, she'd be a terrible president."
For the record, David Frum spent several months as a "senior policy adviser" to Rudy Giuliani's GOP primary campaign, which finished with 597,518 votes. -- i.e., 4,102,270 votes fewer than Mitt Romney, 3,678,528 votes fewer than Mike Huckabee, and 562,885 fewer votes than Ron Paul.

Frum's ability to pick winning presidential candidates is not self-evident. As to his ability to determine exactly who would "be a terrible president" . . .

(Cross-posted at AmSpecBlog.)

Peace freaks vs. Palin motorcade

KCCO captured video of Obots attempting to block Sara Palin's motorcade in Grand Junction, Colo. CNN reports:
Eight to 10 protesters broke away from a larger group of demonstrators and darted into the street in front of Palin's car just after the first police motorcycles in her motorcade had passed, said Acting Chief Troy Smith of the Grand Junction Police Department.
Wearing bandanas and with faces covered, they blocked the path and held up a large banner. Officers in the motorcade stopped their motorcycles, and grabbed protesters, dragging several out of the path of the oncoming motorcade.
At least two demonstrators were tackled and forced to the ground before being pulled away. One officer fell backwards into the path of an approaching vehicle but he was able to get out of the way in time. . . .
Smith said officers saved the protesters from injury because "the motorcade likely would not have stopped" for them. He said "we don't know what their intentions were" in trying to block Palin's motorcade. . . .
The protesters were members of a group called "Red Pill," Smith said. A Web site that carried an announcement of the group's planned protest urged supporters to show Palin "that we as a community say no to war, no to corporate cronyism, and no to four more years of Bush-style leadership." Itencouraged people to bring "drums, noise makers, and your strength."
There is an ossified belief in the minds of certain people: When the U.S. is in a war, all enlightened people must protest. But "civil disobedience" -- i.e., criminal behavior to make a political spectacle -- is not First Amendment-protected free speech. Liberals are having paroxyms of indignation about morons at Republican rallies saying stupid things, but those GOP morons aren't throwing themselves in front of motorcades, are they?

UPDATE: Video via Hot Air:

AOSHQ Test, quantified

Scientific basis of the "I'd tap it" factor:
In the current study, facial and body characteristics of Playboy Playmates of the Year from 1960-2000 were identified and investigated to explore their relationships with U.S. social and economic factors. Playmate of the Year age, body feature measures, and facial feature measurements were correlated with a general measure of social and economic hard times. . . . These results suggest that environmental security may influence perceptions and preferences for women with certain body and facial features.
(Via Hot Air.) You've got to admire the genius of guys who can get a research grant to look through old Playboys. When I was 13, man, I was doing lots of research . . .

Monday, October 20, 2008

The final nail

UPDATE 10/21: McCain campaign denies it is pulling out of Colorado. My apologies for being deceived by CNN.

PREVIOUSLY: On Oct. 2, when Team Maverick pulled out of Michigan, I said it was over -- and all I got was a lot of angry denunciations from the True Believers. Now comes this headline from CNN:
McCain camp looking for way to win without Colorado
Do the math, people: Maverick's down by 5 points in Colorado, a state that Bush won by 5. So, according to CNN, now the brain trust is trying to figure out how to win (wait for it) Pennsylvania, a state Bush lost by 2, and where Maverick now trails by 12.

Pining for the fjords . . .

GOP's 'Cakewalk Ken' endorses Obama

A Nixon-era neocon, the guy who predicted a "cakewalk" in Iraq, and now he's all about Hope.

How's that knife in the back feeling, GOP? This guy was with Bill Kristol's PNAC, no less! A real piece of work, this one.

Folks down around Chattanooga have reported hearing strange laughter from Forest Hills Cemetery.

(Hat-tip: Ace.)

The media's anointed One

John McCain aide Mark Salter complains bitterly about how totally in the tank the media is for Obama, and Tom Bevan recalls that Hillary Clinton's aides had the same complaint.

The longer the Democratic primary campaign lasted, the more the national press corps acted like they were on Obama's payroll. I'll never forget that day in Shepherdstown, W.Va., right after the North Carolina primary, when this fat, obnoxious CBS reporter more or less told Hillary to quit:
Does her vow to keep fighting, asked one network TV reporter, mean that Clinton will continue her campaign all the way until the vote on the convention floor in Denver?
"I'm staying in this race until there's a nominee, and I obviously am going to work as hard as I can to become that nominee," she answered. "So we will continue to contest these elections and move forward."
The reporter fired back with a follow-up question: "But what do you say to those Democrats who fear that you're putting the Democratic Party's chances at risk by...continuing to stay in?"
Honestly, who were "those Democrats" whose fears that jerk from CBS was expressing? Him and his liberal buddies on the press bus, that's who.

Americans should remember this well. If the Obama presidency goes bad wrong -- and does anyone seriously expect it to go well? -- it was the media who elected him. Those biased bastards like that guy from CBS will bear a huge responsibility for the result.

Happy birthday, Michelle Malkin

She turned "the big three-eight" today, and posts a photo of herself at high school graduation with "Big South Jersey Hair."

Man, there's no hair like that '80s hair. You should have seen my spectacular mullet in 1988 . . .

Obama and GLSEN

Linda Harvey is asking questions:
I'd been wondering what Kevin Jennings was doing these days. Jennings is the founder and long-time head of the radical homosexual group GLSEN, the Gay, Lesbian and Straight Education Network. GLSEN's mission has been to plant "gay" clubs and training programs in as many schools as possible. . . .
He's now the Obama campaign fundraising co-chair for the "LGBT" community -- that's "lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgendered." You can listen to Jennings lay out the rights-oriented rhetoric in two interviews with Joe Solmonese of the Human Rights Campaign, on the website "LGBT for Obama." . . .
Read the whole thing. BTW, the reason John McCain's campaign hasn't made a deal of Obama's endorsement of the radical LGBT agenda is that McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt is pro-gay.

Sarah Palin is no Harry Truman

And thank God for that:
Of all the dead Democrats who are now routinely praised by Republicans, none is less deserving of such plaudits than Harry S. Truman. In discussing Sarah Palin’s sudden emergence from obscurity last week, Peggy Noonan wrote: "But there was a man who came from nowhere, the seeming tool of a political machine, a tidy, narrow, unsophisticated senator appointed to high office and then thrust into power by a careless Franklin D. Roosevelt, whose vanity told him he would live forever. And yet that limited little man was Harry S. Truman. Of the Marshall Plan, of containment. Little Harry was big. He had magic."
Magic, bah! Truman was woefully unprepared for the presidency and was so immensely unpopular that he quite nearly destroyed all the goodwill the Democratic Party had accumulated during Roosevelt’s presidency.
Please read the whole thing.

Barack Mugabe?

Michelle Malkin uses the plight of Zimbabwe as an analogy for Barack Obama's "spread the wealth around" philosophy. Naturally, this induces accusations of racism from the liberal blogger Oliver Willis.

The only way to avoid accusations of racism in this election is either to (a) praise Obama or (b) say nothing at all. And the biggest undertow against Obama's otherwise inevitable election is the suspicion of some voters that an Obama presidency would mean four years of such hysterical finger-pointing: "Look! That guy said something bad about Obama! Racist! Racist!"

At least Oliver Willis is black. I don't so much mind when a black person says, "Hey, that's racist." If a man says he feels insulted, who am I to say how he should feel? What bothers me is these self-righteous white liberals parading around their fine-tuned racial sensitivity as if sensitivity were a moral virtue: Thou shalt kowtow to PC shibboleths.

Palin and the press

Guess what? She's great:
Though she often turns the "mainstream media" into a punching bag on the stump, Palin clearly enjoys interacting with reporters. She seems to relish the opportunity to demonstrate that her breadth of knowledge far exceeds what she offered to CBS News' Katie Couric in a series of interviews that were marked by vague, often convoluted answers to straightforward questions.
Via Joe at NoVaTownhall who sagely notes the most important point: I was right all along. Twenty-two years in the news business, but does any Republican ever ask my opinion about "media strategy"? No, but they'll shell out big bucks to "media strategists" who never worked a day in a newsroom. For want of a nail . . .

UPDATE: I just saw Frank Luntz on "Fox & Friends" say that it was wrong for Sarah Palin to do the Gibson and Kouric interviews -- and in this, Luntz is right -- but then he said she shouldn't have talked to any reporters until after the first debate, which is completely wrong.

Let me try to explain this briefly. The daily deadline reporters who are out there covering the McCain campaign every day should never be treated as the Big Media Enemy, except in those cases where an individual reporter commits some specific act of unfairness. Nor should the local and regional reporters who show up to cover specific events be confused with The Big Media Enemy.

The workaday journalist whose job it is to go out and cover campaigns deserves to be treated with respect. That reporter is supposed to be getting the news, and when campaigns don't allow reporters access to candidates -- when there's never a press conference, never any unscripted availability -- you can't blame the inevitable deterioration of the campaign's press relations on the press.

"You draw more flies with honey" -- that's the simplest summary of the secret to good press relations. "Walk a mile in my shoes" -- that's the simplest summary of why Republicans are so lousy at press relations. Because 90% of reporters are Democrats, there are very few people working in Republican politics who've ever been reporters. There is a lack of empathy, an inability to see press relations from the reporter's point of view, at the heart of the Republican Party's lousy standing in America's newsroom.

The liberal leanings of the press corps can't be helped (at least, not in the short term), but how Republicans deal with that problem is within their own control. "I do not believe in a fate that will fall on us no matter what we do. I do believe in a fate that will fall on us if we do nothing," Reagan said, and today's GOP stands guilty of doing nothing about media bias -- except constantly whining and lashing out in paranoid rage, which is Nixonesque, not Reaganesque.

Republican campaign operatives have to get over their sadistic, punitive attitude toward the press. The Tucker Bounds School of GOP media relations -- where every interview is treated as an opportunity to show contempt for the interviewer -- is only making a bad situation worse.

Over the years, I have patiently sought to explain this to the Republicans I know personally. They nod in assent, but then . . . nothing. Maybe it's my fault they never seem to follow up on what I tell them. Maybe it's that I'm not a big-shot party operative like Frank Luntz or a 20-something know-it-all like Tucker Bounds. But with their mishandling of the Palin press roll-out, everyone can see how this blunderheaded attitude has cost the GOP a real political opportunity, so maybe something will change.

The news, neglected

This blog is usually crammed full of political news, and you may have noticed that I've been ignoring most of the news for a day or so. I apologize, but you haven't really missed anything.

Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama. So what? Is it racist for a black Republican to endorse a black Democrat? (Rush Limbaugh, George Will and Pat Buchanan seem to think so.) Or is it even more racist for a white Republican to say that it is racist for a black Republican to endorse a black Democrat?

I am agnostic on these questions, but I'm also giddy beyond words. With all this fingerpointing about "racism" going on, and nobody pointing the finger at me, I'm starting to feel like an exemplar of enlightened tolerance. If all you bigots and hatemongers will keep this stuff going for another couple of weeks, the NAACP is likely to give me an award just for staying out of this mess.

The polls ... eh, talk to Nate Silver or just go to Real Clear Politics and see for yourself. More than two weeks ago, when McCain pulled out of Michigan, I said the election was over, and I've gotten nothing but grief from my Republican friends ever since. Most of the complaints were to the effect that the polls don't mean anything, unless the polls predict a Republican victory. So why even bother to look at the polls, if I'm not allowed to draw any conclusions from them without being accused of bad faith? I've already got all the enemies I need.

That's all the political news. In sports, Texas, Alabama and Penn State are atop the college football standings, which is like a 30-year flashback to 1978, when I had a puffy golden shoulder-length shag haircut and looked good in my 28-waist skintight jeans. Speaking of golden oldies . . . in Madonna news:
In other celebrity news:

  • David Duchovny, self-confessed "sex addict," had an affair with his tennis coach. (Also, he had an affair with his maid, his secretary, some chick he met at a party, and the girl serving soft drinks at the local Taco Bell. The difference between a "sex addict" and every other guy in the world is that, unless you're a rich TV star who looks like David Duchovny, women usually say "no.")
  • Billy Bob Thornton denies having an affair with Tea Leoni. OK, that makes two guys --- Billy Bob and David Duchovny -- who aren't having sex with Tea Leoni. Plus me, so that's three. Anybody else care to confess that they aren't shagging Tea Leoni?
  • The boyfriend of some starlet you never heard of was shot dead in Hollywood.
  • Embarrassing photos of the boyfriend of a slightly more famous starlet.
  • Pictures of Britney's child-visitation day.
  • Eminem has just written a memoir, and it's not impressionistic like Renoir. It's more just like a scene out of film noir, except without a blonde dame in a peignoir. Marshall Mathers grew up poor near the Eight Mile. He was moody even though he had a great smile. Of all the local rappers he was the most white. He should have called me, 'cause I know how to ghostwrite . . .
  • Is Will Smith bisexual? The rumors are contextual, but two more jokes and next you will think my humor is exceptional.
  • Supermodel in a $5 million bra. (You've never heard of her, but she's a "supermodel," so she is by definition a celebrity, and I know you're thinking: "Like Obama said, babe, share the wealth -- lose that bra.")
  • Hip-hop star Lil Wayne announces he's going to be a father. (Rumors that he received a strange package of congratulatory gifts from Madonna could not be immediately confirmed.)
OK, that's all the news you missed and it doesn't amount to much, does it? So it's a bad day in the news business. If Al Qaeda blows up something tomorrow, that will be a good day for the news business. (And the media wonders why everybody hates them . . .)

Short answer: 'No.'

"Does the work of Sigmund Freud have anything to teach us about the global financial crisis and how to extricate ourselves from its clutches?"

No. A thousand times, no. To the extent that Freud asserted anything original as being scientific, he was 100% wrong. His conceptions of the mind, its natural processes and ailments, were as primitive as those of any tribal shaman or voodoo priestess, and as scientifically useful as astrology, tarot or palmistry.

Mental illness does not result from bad potty training or repressed lust for one's own parents or any "complex" bearing a name from Greek mythology. Freud formed his theories from his practice treating the complaints of Viennese hypochondriacs in the Victorian Age. As such, his work offers some insight into the worries that afflicted 19th-century Austrian neurotics, but not much more than that.

Freud's ignorant theories spawned more nonsense than the theories of any other intellectual in modern history, excepting only Marx and Nietzsche. And in the case of all three of these European humbug merchants, there are still apologists who, having been taught to reverence the Great Man before they had sufficient experience to know any better, cling to the idiotic insistence that the Great Man's theories were true, and that any perception of error is the result of the misinterpretations made by the Great Man's followers.

To defend these eminent authors of error is the same as advocating error, and to perpetuate misconceptions that have long since been proven false. No amount of fact can seem to shake these people who cling to the bogus theories of Great Men. One still encounters educated people who worry that "sexual repression" causes mental illness, even though nothing could be plainer than (a) American society is now less sexually repressed than any major culture since Nero was Emperor, and (b) we've got far more genuine craziness than we had when Coolidge was president and the Comstock Laws were in full force.

Anyone who thinks that anything true or useful can be found in Freudian psychology needs to have his head examined.
P.S.: I should add that the falsehood of Freud's theories does not prove the truth of modern theories of the mind. I am a real physical being, not a perception induced by a neurochemical illusion. Also, if you think I'm sexy, it's not because of a biological deterministic evolutionary urge. Darwin was wrong, too; there is no "gay gene"; and my sexiness is an objective fact.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Sully, blogs, and the Young Turks

Politically, Andrew Sullivan is erratic, and his attacks on Sarah Palin have been wildly irresponsible, but in two sentences of his latest article for The Atlantic Monthly, Sullivan makes a huge point:
If you added up the time a writer once had to spend finding an outlet, impressing editors, sucking up to proprietors, and proofreading edits, you’d find another lifetime buried in the interstices. But with one click of the Publish Now button, all these troubles evaporated.
Younger people -- i.e., those under 35, who have started their careers since the online explosion of the mid-1990s -- have no appreciation for how instantaneous Internet communication has transformed the world of the professional writer, of which blogging is the ultimate example.

I'm 49 and Sullivan's 44, so we both began our careers when there were no Web sites, when the Internet was something known only to academics and technogeeks, when editorial "gatekeepers" stood squarely between the writer and the reader, and when the only way to gain access to mass readership was to present yourself and your work to these gatekeepers, in person or via mail (I would say "snail mail," but that term did not exist).

Of course, Sullivan started his career at a much higher level -- I used to read his articles in the New Republic when I was a staffer at the Rome (Ga.) News-Tribune -- but in recalling the limitations of journalism in the pre-Internet age, he echoes my own memory.

Applying for a staff position, you would "send clips and resume" or, if you were a freelancer, mail out manuscripts in hope of finding a publisher. It required the commitment of an enormous amount of time and energy, with a lot of time spent waiting for replies, if any. Mail out a clips-and-resume package on Monday, which might be delivered to the editor on Thursday or Friday, and if you were lucky you might get a phone call the next week.

On my desk is a book, The Proud Highway, a collection of Hunter S. Thompson's letters from 1955-67. Reading it, you get some sense of the difficulties a writer faced seeking assignments in the Bad Old Days. The young Thompson was a genius (and arrogantly aware of it), but had to spend an enormous amount of time pitching articles to editors, at a time when that meant typing letters on a manual typewriter, and most of the time getting rejected.

All this tended to limit a writer's career mobility. If you got a staff position, you tended to stay wherever you were and work your way up (rather than hop from job to job, as many young journalists do now) since the process of applying for jobs was so laborious. And once a freelancer found an editor who'd publish one of his articles, he would keep pitching that editor, trying to establish a regular outlet for his work. For example, Thompson regularly freelanced for the National Observer, and when he sold a feature to the national men's magazine Rogue in 1961, he kept pitching them for future assignments (without luck).

¡Viva La Revolucion!
The advent of the Web as a mass medium in the mid-'90s changed all that. Suddenly, it was possible for any writer to communicate directly and instantaneously, in writing, with editors anywhere in the world. And anything you published online was available to a worldwide readership.

The revolution of blogging -- free, user-friendly software for online self-publishing -- followed in the early years of this century, and in just the span of a few years, has transformed the writer's world beyond anything I could have imagined in 1995.

In September, nearly 300,000 readers visited this blog, an average daily readership equal to the Georgia newspapers where I used to work. This blog has been linked by the New York Times, Michelle Malkin and, indeed, by Andrew Sullivan. And there is no editor, no staff, no office, no budget -- nothing. Just me sitting here in my house, with my wife and kids in the next room, the dogs wandering in and out, the smell of spaghetti sauce wafting in from the kitchen.

Young Turks and Old T-Shirts
Yesterday, I did some curmudgeonly grumbling at the insufferable arrogance of young conservative writers: I've got T-shirts older than you, kid. This is half-joking, of course. I enjoy playing the curmudgeon, fondly recalling the grumpy old-school editors who showed me the ropes when I was starting out in journalism.

Behind the humor, however, is a serious perception about the transformative effects of the information revolution. Part of the arrogance of today's young writers, I think, comes from how easy it is for them to reach a national readership via the Internet.

Sullivan was one of the brash boy-genius prodigies (succeeding Michael Kinsley) whom Marty Peretz hired as editor of the New Republic. That kind of thing was astonishingly rare at the time. True, William F. Buckley Jr. was not quite 30 when he launched National Review, but Buckley . . . well, there was only ever one Bill Buckley.

In The Prince of Darkness, Robert Novak recalls that when he joined the Washington bureau of the Associated Press in 1957 at age 26, he was the only reporter in the bureau under age 30, "and there were precious few under 40." In other words, it used to take years of hard work for even a very talented writer to get anywhere near the heights of political journalism. And it took another six years as a reporter in Washington before Novak teamed up with Rowland Evans to become a nationally-syndicated columnist.

Of Horses and Carts
Today, Washington seems to be crawling with 22-year-olds fresh out of college who are doing political commentary on a daily basis without ever having spent a single day working as a straight-news reporter.

To say that this is putting the cart before the horse would be wrong -- it never even occurred to them that they needed a horse. The Blog Age has, in some ways, elevated opinion over fact. It has also fostered a belief that pure intelligence is more important than knowledge or experience.

The same medium that allows me, a graduate of lowly Jacksonville (Ala.) State University, to hurl online blasts at alumni of Harvard and Yale also allows callow youth to offer the world opinions about political affairs ungrounded in any direct experience of politics, or any observational memory of politics prior to the Clinton administration.

Today's 22-year-old was in second grade when Clinton became president. When I was in second grade, LBJ was president, and I think it's worth sharing with the ambitious Young Turks of conservatism a story about old Lyndon.

After he became vice president in 1961, LBJ attended a meeting of John Kennedy's advisers, the Ivy Leaguers famously dubbed "The Best and Brightest." Johnson was so impressed that when he met later that day with House Speaker Sam Rayburn, he couldn't help raving about the brilliant minds of JFK's brain trust. The wily Rayburn famously replied, "Well, Lyndon, you may be right and they may be every bit as intelligent as you say. But I'd feel a whole lot better about them if just one of them had run for sheriff once."

In the same way, I'd feel a whole lot better about the punditry of the Young Turks if any of them had ever covered a sheriff's race as a reporter. One of the brightest of the Young Turks, J.P. Freire of the American Spectator, likes to say that the conservative movement today needs more Robert Novaks and fewer Bill Buckleys. Which is to say, everybody wants to be a pundit, and nobody wants to do any research or reporting.

The Next Ann Coulter?
Freire is exactly right, and I cannot tell you how many times in recent years I've encountered bright young College Republican types whose ambition is to be "the next Ann Coulter," and who seem to expect to fulfill that ambition by the time they're 25. Yet Coulter herself would be the first to tell them that they've got it all wrong.

Last fall, Coulter spoke to the National Journalism Center's 30th anniversary gala, and in the Q&A afterwards, she was asked by one of her young admirers how to follow in her footsteps. Coulter explained that, after her stint at NJC, she told her mentor -- the famed conservative journalist M. Stanton Evans -- that she had decided against a career in journalism. Evans was heartbroken, because Coulter had been a most promising protege.

Instead, Coulter attended law school at the University of Michigan, did a clerkship with a federal appeals court judge in Kansas City, and worked as a corporate lawyer in New York before returning to Washington at age 32 to become a top Senate staffer. Two years later, at age 34, she made her debut as a regular commentator on MSNBC, and she was 36 -- I repeat, ANN COULTER WAS THIRTY-SIX-YEARS OLD -- when she published her first book, High Crimes and Misdemeanors.

Now, I am well aware that many of the Young Turks loathe Ann Coulter with every fiber of their traditionalist/paleo/libertarian/Paulista souls. This is irrelevant to the point of the story, which is that Ann Coulter did not become Ann Coulter by setting out in her youth to become Ann Coulter. She didn't move to DC right out of college. She didn't go to work at a think tank or join the staff of a major political journal or try to write"big picture" essays about the cosmological meaning of conservatism.

As Coulter explained to her Q&A interrogator at the NJC event (and I think I remember the quote very nearly verbatim), "Nobody cares about your opinions when you're 24. You don't know anything when you're 24."

The Virtue of Experience
Of course, smart 24-year-olds always think they know everything, and it's a reasonably safe guess that 24-year-old Ann Coulter was no exception. Yet she was smart enough to realize that she needed real skills and real experience -- something outside the unreality of Washington, D.C. -- and so when she returned to D.C. a decade after her NJC internship, she brought with her knowledge and perspective that she could never have gained had she gone directly into journalism at age 24.

The impatience of the Young Turks is in many ways understandable, and I can't blame them for succumbing to the temptation that the Blog Age offers them to fulminate (with a potential worldwide readship) on the woes of the GOP amid this evident gotterdammerung of conservatism. I fully sympathize with these whip-smart 20-somethings in Washington who regret the transformational opportunities being lost because the major conservative institutions are in the hands of 60ish men who don't even know basic HTML and who have certainly never Twittered or Facebooked. And I know that the Young Turks have a unique understanding that their elders in the conservative movement seem sadly incapable of bridging the culture gap that separates the vinyl LP/8-track analog generation from the Limewire-and-iPod generation.

Patience, Young Turks. You have more friends than you know, but you are still Jedi apprentices and your eagerness to supplant the Yodas of conservatism is creating a disturbance in the Force. Instead of filling the Internet with harangues about the failures of neocons and pseudocons and cryptoliberals, you would do more good for yourself and for conservatism by devoting yourself to tasks more befitting your youth -- research, reporting, development, organizing -- even if you think those menial duties are beneath the dignity of such philospher princes as yourself.

And if you will suffer to hear one more bit of curmudgeonly wisdom, consider this: When I was your age, I was a Democrat.

At 25, I voted for Walter Mondale. I was such an enthusiastic yellow-dog Democrat that the poll worker had to stop me at the door and ask me to remove my Mondale-Ferraro pin so as not to violate the prohibition on campaigning inside a polling place. And I continued to follow the ways of the Dark Side until the mid-'90s, when I came within the orbit of a Jedi Master who had himself been mentored by another Georgia Democrat, the late Larry McDonald. Ahem:



(Carroll Quigley! Edward Mandell House! Ah, those were names to conjure with!) By 1996, my worldview had been so radically transformed that I eschewed voting for the mushy moderate Bob Dole -- "Tax Collector for the Welfare State" -- and instead voted for Libertarian Harry Browne.

Having undergone such a reorientation myself (and struggled to regain equilibrium), I am here to tell you that the next 10 or 20 years may revolutionize both American politics and your own worldview. Just 25 years ago, an arch-conservative like Larry McDonald was a Democrat. And just 15 years ago, so was I.

Work hard, study and grow wise, Young Turks. Be sure that the world will still be in need of your wisdom, once you obtain it.

UPDATE: Linked at Instapundit. Thanks.

Biden: Losing the bigot vote?

Democrats say the darnedest things at San Francisco fundraisers:
As Election Day looms just over two weeks away, Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., said Saturday that with Republicans firing "vicious" and "dangerous" attacks at Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., voters are "having a difficult time" opting for the man who would become the nation's first African American
president.
"Undecided people are having a difficult time just culturally making the change, making the move for the first African American president in the history of the United States of America," the Democratic vice-presidential nominee said at a San Francisco fundraiser Saturday evening. "So we need to respond. We need to respond at the moment, immediately, not wait, not hang around, not assume any of this won't stick."
(Via Jack M. at AOSHQ.) The Obama campaign hoovered up $150 million last month, they're outspending McCain as much as 4-to-1 in TV advertising, and Biden goes to San Francisco to whine, "Give us more money, because undecided voters are a bunch of racist crackers."

Obama: $150 million in September

Crushing:
The Obama campaign announced this morning that it had raised a record $150 million last month, and had added 632,000 new donors to its total.
The amount shattered the campaign’s previous record from August. The McCain campaign also had a record-breaking month in August, but is now operating with the $84 million provided by public financing for the general cycle and assistance from the Republican National Committee under certain limits.
In a single month, then, Obama collects nearly twice what the McCain campaign collected in matching funds.

According to the New York Times, the Obama campaign has spent $145 million on TV advertising to McCain's $90 million -- a $55 million advantage for the Democrat.

Getting ugly

Nothing like the whiff of defeat to make people get angry and start hunting around for scapegoats, and the sense of an impending Maverick meltdown has led to lots of recriminations among people who, truth be told, had nothing to do with this mess.

That's a big part of why so many conservatives are angry to begin with -- we had nothing to do with it. John McCain was never our candidate, and when he locked up the GOP nomination back in February, a lot of conservatives declared that they would never, under any circumstances, vote for McCain. Most have since walked back from that stance, and the Greater Evil of Obama caused a rally-'round effect among Republicans who just months earlier had been vehemently denouncing John McCain.

Now, as hope of a miracle comeback fades among Republicans, the long knives are coming out. Allow me to suggest that the real problem to be confronted goes back to how John McCain got the nomination to begin with. Once Romney dropped out, the remaining alternatives were Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. On economic issues, Huckabee was actually worse than McCain, and he wasn't really any better on immigration.

Why wasn't there a candidate in the field with a credible record, the right stance on the major domestic issues, and strong enough financial backing to act as the vehicle for the ABM (Anybody But McCain) Republicans? In spring/summer 2007, a lot of people thought it was going to be Fred Thompson, but after a promising start, Fred just couldn't seem to make it happen.

Allow me to suggest this explanation: After a party gains and holds the White House for two terms, the mechanism by which the party chooses its presidential nominees becomes rusty from disuse. Remember that LBJ cruised to re-election in 1964, only to be blindsided by Eugene McCarthy in the '68 New Hampshire primary. LBJ's vice president, Hubert Humphrey, picked up the mantle of incumbency and went down to defeat. The next time out, the Democrats nominated George McGovern -- the mechanism was rusty.

A very similar thing happened after Reagan's two-term presidency. Reagna succeeded in handing off the incumbency to Bush in 1988, but Bush got blindsided by Buchanan in the New Hampshire primary, then undermined by Ross Perot in the general election. And then in '96, Bob Dole (who was never a conservative favorite) got the nomination and lost in the general election.

If past is prologue, then, and McCain loses Nov. 4, it's unlikely that the GOP's primary system will produce a winning candidate in 2012. To overcome that historic pattern, conservatives will need to begin in 2009 trying to identify and promote several potential 2012 hopefuls who are generally acceptable to a broad coalition of Republican constituencies. Obviously, Sarah Palin's on that list, but there need to be a number of alternative names, since it's difficult to know what the situation is going to be like 4 years hence. And there needs to be a plan to ensure that the party coalesces around a consensus conservative candidate by fall of 2011, to prevent any future "Maverick" scenarios.

The epigrammatic Tyler Cowen

Nice that the New York Times would actually publish somebody from George Mason:
You’ll note that greed doesn’t play an independent role in this explanation because greed, like gravity, is pretty much always there.
I've always hated the idiotic suggestion that "greed" exists only among wealthy business executives. Are rock stars, movie producers and pro athletes not also greedy?

The assertion that rich people are rich because they are more greedy than other people is a claim that can't withstand the slightest examination in terms of actual facts. Are physicians and engineers more greedy than janitors and retail clerks?

The vilification of the rich as greedy is either (a) ignorance, (b) political demagoguery, or (c) a "sour grapes" rationalization, an attempt to make a virtue of poverty.

I was right about Palin

Fred Barnes confirms what I said from the start:
The campaign advisers assigned to prepare Palin for media interviews and the veep debate . . . simply didn't trust her to perform adequately in those settings. She would need weeks of intense training and study. They were wrong, and at Palin's expense. . . .
It should have been obvious she could handle the media.
Keeping Palin away from the media -- except for high-stakes network interviews -- was 180 degrees the opposite from what the McCain campaign should have done, as I said at the time.

If, on the day her selection was announced in Ohio, they would have put her into an impromptu half-hour press conference, then the "beat" reporters covering the campaign wouldn't have had time to prepare "gotcha" questions, and the pundits wouldn't have been able to claim the campaign was "hiding" Palin.

A press conference is actually easier to handle than a one-on-one interview (the kind Palin did with Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric) because if you get a question you don't like, you just make a wisecrack and then, "Next question." Palin could have handled that without any problem.

But there is a mindset among today's GOP operatives that the successful media strategy is to limit reporters to covering staged and scripted events, and at all costs to kept the press away from the candidate. This defensive, controlled-access policy has the inevitable effect of empowering the campaign operatives and disempowering the candidate. It is the campaign manager (or press spokesman) who is making the decisions of which reporters to talk to and what to say.

This defensive/controlled strategy allows a worthless hack like Tucker Bounds to get himself booked on CNN and become the face and voice of the campaign, rather than letting the candidate speak for himself.

This strategy -- which has been the standard playbook with GOP operatives for years -- creates a radical disconnect between Republican politicians and the media. You can't develop relationships with people you never talk to. Reporters need access to do their jobs, and they naturally tend to become hostile toward any source who is perpetually unavailable to them.

George Allen is one of the nicest guys you'll ever meet, but during his 2006 Senate campaign, his staff wouldn't let reporters anywhere near Allen. So when "macaca" hit, Allen had no friends in the press who could help him.

None of the bigtime Republican "media strategists" has ever worked a day as a reporter, and it shows.

'Just a guy in my neighborhood'

Bill Ayers? Oh, you must mean the guy whose book Barack Obama favorably reviewed in 1997. The guy whom he joined in a University of Chicago panel discussion organized by Michelle Obama. The guy with whom he shared an office for three years.

Don't you dare imply that they actually knew each other, you racist.

UPDATE: See-Dubya actually shows us pages from Ayers' book, which is ostensibly about the juvenile justice system, but seems to contain a lot of self-absorbed writerly crap about Ayers' neighborhood:

Once a summer colony, Hyde Park today is dominated by the University of Chicago. . . .
To my right the lake, a shimmering sea of blues and greens . . . .
WTF? Is this a policy book about juvenile justice or a travel magazine feature? How do liberal writers get away with this kind of bait-and-switch? Do the publishers simply not care that the manuscript is padded out with personal stuff that has nothing to do with the subject of the book?

Stepping outside into the cool October night, I pondered these questions. There aren't any streetlights near my home on the heavily wooded western slope of South Mountain, so the stars stand out brightly in the midnight sky. The silver orb of a full moon hung low near the eastern horizon, half visible through the remaining leaves on the towering hickory and oak trees. Brilliant orange and yellow in the daylight, the leaves are just shadows in the moonlight now. I stepped up from the basement door into the backyard and lit a Marlboro -- and just then heard the crashing sound of a startled deer scampering into the surrounding woods.
See? Writing that kind of fancy descriptive stuff is the easiest thing in the world. Writing about one's own personal life requires no research, no footnotes, and it has no business in a book that's supposed to be about public policy. Ayers was defrauding his readers, and his publisher let him get away with it, just like Barack Obama's publisher, who paid him to write a policy-oriented book about race relations and instead got a memoir -- a freaking memoir!

UPDATE II: The Bill Ayers Method of padding out a public policy book with what amounts to personal journal entries is something I might have to adapt for my book on the 2008 election:
When I got up from the computer and went to the kitchen to refill my glass of iced tea, one of our cats was next to the door, waiting for me to let him out. I opened the door and the gray shadow slipped quickly out into the night. As I walked back toward my office, I passed the den where my sons Jefferson and Emerson were sleeping on the sofa, bathed in the blue glow of the TV. They'd fallen asleep watching a movie, and now were dozing together under the blanket, with our mutt Samson asleep on the floor close by.
Alas, I'm not a famous terrorist-turned-professor or a half-Kenyan Harvard Law student, so no one will pay me to write banal crap like that.