Tuesday, October 27, 2009


Excuse the all-caps shouting, but I just about blew a gasket tonight. I'm now past the 14-hour mark, I got scooped on the NY23 beat twice today -- on the Club for Growth poll and the Pawlenty endorsement -- and spent a lot of time on the phone this evening with my Hoffman sources.

Let me briefly explain the situation up in the 23rd District: Hoffman's got a relatively small paid staff and he's campaigning as a third-party candidate against both the Republicans and Democrats, in the largest geographical congressional district east of the Mississippi River. It ain't a walk in the park up there, OK?

While I generally have a low opinion of Republican campaign staffers -- who tend to treat reporters like crap -- these guys on Hoffman's team have my sympathy. They're spread thin, and working like hell all the time. They must be ordering Red Bull by the case.

Today was absolutely crazy for them, with news breaking faster than anybody could possibly keep up, new ads being produced, a new Democratic TV attack ad airing in the district, etc., etc.

Crazy for them, and crazy for me, too. So then, just after I posted the Fred Thompson ad video, I flip over to Instapundit and see him saying this:
Hoffman's kind of a special case. There's basically no downside. That's not true in 2010. I remember a blog commenter somewhere a while back worrying that Beck would turn out to be a Pied Piper leading people to Third Party self-destruction. In Hoffman’s case that's not really an issue, but a Perot-type candidacy might put the Dems back in bigtime.
And he's writing this irrelevant crap about third parties and 2010 while linking Allahpundit:
What is the endgame? There's a sense I get from watching Beck that he thinks there's a supermajority out there willing to return to Founders-style libertarianism if only he and other conservatives hammer the message hard and long enough. I don't think there is.
Well, f*ck what you think, Allah. We're talking about one congressional election that's now only a week away, and all your forward-looking "Big Picture" theorizing is just a distraction from the fight.

Today, I had the same reaction when I found a couple of commenters squabbling about Hoffman's position on immigration. Here's the thing: What's the deluxe enchilada plate we're looking at now? ObamaCare.

If that passes, we're doomed. Period. Good-bye, US of A. Hello, Sweden.

Doug Hoffman is a sworn opponent of ObamaCare. If a guy like that wins, in an underdog third-party bid where nobody gave him a snowball's chance two weeks ago, what's the message?

The message is that Democrats had better watch out in 2010. If a guy like Hoffman can win in a district that went 52% for Obama less than a year ago, it will be like a flare shot skyward from a ship on a moonless midnight. Add in a victory for Bob McDonnell in Virginia (which also went for Obama last year) and any Democratic senator or congressman with half a brain is going to start thinking, "Ruh-roh. This kinda looks like 1994 all over again."

If Hoffman can pull off a miracle upset victory in NY23, it would be a shot across the bow of Obama, Pelosi and Reid that they won't be able to ignore.

The Blue Dogs will freak out, and the RINOs will start wondering about the possibility of a Tea Party/Club for Growth/Sarah Palin convergence in their GOP primaries. They'll find an excuse to pull the plug on ObamaCare and start looking for opportunities to denounce deficit spending. Heck, you might even see some of them work up the gumption to suggest a vote to extend the Bush tax cuts.

All of this is possible, if Hoffman wins. But a Hoffman win isn't a random hypothetical we can postulate and discuss like we were in some damned poli-sci grad-school seminar. The battle for NY23 is the kind of desperate tooth-and-nail fight that doesn't lend itself to dispassionate theoretical discourse.

At such a time as this, to waste pixels pondering ridiculous fourth-bong-hit-in-the-dorm-room questions -- "Hey, wow, wouldn't a third party be cool?" -- is such a complete waste of time, it's almost a complete waste of time explaining what a waste of time it is.

You're bumming me out, man. Honest to God, you guys are bumming me out.


  1. Standing ovation! Bravo Stacy!
    They're missing the point. I swear we have a bunch of eeyores and pessimists in the conservative movement. Rather than celebrating a guy who actually stands for something, they're shooting him in the ass, and for what reason?
    Enough with the wussification.
    Have some balls beta males. Like Doug Hoffman, Fred Thompson, Sarah Palin, Michelle Malkin, and Robert Stacy McCain.

  2. You've just outlined both why Hoffman must win in the 23rd and why the bipartisan Party-In-Government will do everything it can to deny Hoffman, even if it means that Owens takes it. In fact, at the risk of wasting pixels, I'll say that is the prefered option among both halves of the PIG.

  3. Beck is the one pushing third parties. While he is doing great things exposing Obama and his cronies, his third party ideas are dangerous, as well as his insane opinion that we are better off with Obama than your distant cousin.

  4. You know, I'm starting to suspect that AP isn't really all that conservative for a republican. But then, for all I know him & Meggers & Brooks & Dowd all get together for organic fair-trade green tea a couple of times a week, so maybe he's the _real_ heart of the conservative movement.

  5. @Anonymous,

    as well as his insane opinion that we are better off with Obama than your distant cousin

    Think of the current situation in terms of musical chairs, where we're all in a giant loop, staggering about, listening to gangsta rap.

    Only this isn't proper musical chairs: our so-called leadership on either side of the aisle is thugging chairs at an alarming rate.

    John McCain represents dancing along, wondering how soon the diminishing chair supply will trigger a general panic. Barack Obama represents somebody knowing the time for that panic is RIGHT NOW and kicking over the stereo system.

    It's not a question of what; rather when.

  6. Allah hates EVERYTHING!!!! I don't know how he gets out of bed in the morning. The only time he perks up is when he used to talk about McCain's daughter. Don't pay attention to them, I've given twice to Hoffman and there is alot of people that are backing this guy. I don't think throwing big money at the democrats or having Obama stump for you absolutely will not help them. People are pissed, period.

  7. Did you see this yet, RSM? From the Libertarian Republican- Alan Grayson (D-FL) went on the Alex Jones Show and called Linda Robertson a "K street whore."


  8. Allah never supports anything/one. He is a provocateur. Period. Ignore him.

    Glenn is more worried about his GPS replacement.

    Glen Beck and his projected third party is a nonstarter. He is not a conservative reformer but serves some connector or maven purpose (ala Tipping Point-forget which one).

    Sapwolf is in NY23. Perhaps the C4P peeps can hook you up with a phone number? He is not on Twitter under that name. Will toss what I see your way. Gas up and replace the tires for your return!

  9. The third-party talk is nonsense, of course - just the stuff of the late-night dorm rap sessions you mention. True "third party" movements begin gradually and regionally. They cannot be invented from above - see for reference the aforementioned Ross Perot: if he and his "volunteers" couldn't establish a third party, Glen Beck certainly can't.

    However, the threat of a third party/independent conservative challenge is a healthy thing. It will restrain the party apparatchniks from nominating "electable" RINOs, and that is a good thing.

    Hoffman and NY-23 are special cases, though. Most local GOP Committees aren't going to put forth pro-abortion, pro-cap 'n' tax liberals who proclaim "fiscal responsibility" as a mantra without ever bothering to practice it. Good for Palin, Thompson, and the Johnny-come-Pawlently. Bad for the NRCC and Newt.

    We shall overcome!

  10. Palin just Facebooked 3:36 am


  11. "Here's the thing: What's the deluxe enchilada plate we're looking at now? ObamaCare. If that passes, we're doomed. Period. Good-bye, US of A. Hello, Sweden."

    Heh. That's usually the kind of argument advanced AGAINST voting for a third party candidate. It's a bullshit argument, but nice job turning it around to point in the other direction, anyway!

  12. Don't be bummed... when it comes to NY23, most conservatives get it.

  13. 1) Glenn Beck is a gadfly--a very useful role in any uprising. He's got a talent for taking complex and boring issues and making them understandable. He's a sincere man whose outrage mirrors our own and, unlike most of us, he is able to express said outrage coherently with just the right touch of indignation. He is a very important part of the effort to take back America from the Leftists who are seeking to destroy it. Like all gadflies, he is not a political mechanic and, therefore, should not be listened to when it comes to such matters as strategy. He serves a vital purpose in our struggle, but it is and should be confined to what he is most effective at, and that is not in the realm of political strategy.

    2) Allah is Allah. I too sometimes wonder why Michelle keeps him around, but she has her reasons and I respect her and her judgment [although, like John Derbyshire, I tend to believe the United States would be in much better shape if women had never gotten the vote--they like nurturing and what is socialism but forced nurturing?]. Frankly, I ignore Allah, HNBP.

    3) Our chances of restoring this country to what the Founders envisioned have benefitted by having a committed radical in The White House than if Stacy's grumpy uncle had been elected and the stealth socialism of the past 100 years had continued. However, this positive has to be balanced with the fact that we now stand a good chance of getting nuked by the 12th Iman loving Iranians.

    4) Cubachi: To be conservative is to be naturally pessimistic--nothing wrong with having low expectations of your fellow man. You rarely get disappointed [see John Derby shire's WE ARE DOOMED].

  14. The country has been here before.

    Conservative Party candidates who weren't Republicans were around in the 1970s. Conservative challengers to liberal Republicans were around in the late '70s. This was a sign of renewal, and of growing strength.

    Hoffman can win, and if he wins, it's a honking big sign to partisan Republicans where they should push their party in 2010 and 2012.

  15. When did NY-23 surpass MD-1 as the Congressional District largest in geographical area? Just wondering . . .

    Hoffman represents the "common man" that our founding fathers wanted to serve in the House. We need more Doug Hoffmans.

  16. Guys... Allah ain't got faith. I think he's misreading the situation - far more evolves than meets the news.

    Libertarians and Classical Liberals aren't measured well by Gallup and co. This groundswell may very well be much larger and more effective that the Reagan revolution or Newt's revolt. Why the positive outlook? Glad ya asked...

    For starters, we have, FINALLY, two channels of communication - Fox, which at least tolerates such messages, and the innerweb's blogoball thingy. Then there's the active grassfire burning away at Republican effete's control of the RNC. I think this can be done.

  17. Sensible...and entertaining to boot!

    This may be of interest on the subject:
    "MEMO to Hand-wringing, RNC-loving robo-dopes: just as being a RINO/moderate doesn’t mean you’ll mindlessly pull the lever for every John McCain clone that makes the ballot–evidence this RINO-in-the-room: Obama won the moderates that supposedly was McCain’s strength in 2008–so might conservatives have enough sense to pick their spots about when and who to support."
    The RINO Attack on Glenn Beck: Magic -R- No Cure for U.S. Ills.

    As one reader put it, "A day without some Allah Hate is a sad day indeed".

  18. You know what would make you feel better, Stacy? A successful Hoffman moneybomb. Dude needs cash.

    My opponents have bought and paid for $876,000 in TV ads. I urgently need to raise $125, 000. Immediately.

    Depending on his stance on preemptive and perpetual nation-building wars on a tactic, and the filthy Fed, us Paultards might even be willing to donate some fiat funnymoney and boots on the ground for the cause.