Monday, October 26, 2009

NY23: Club for Growth poll shows Hoffman (31%) now leading Democrat Owens (27%), Scozzafava third (20%)

Press release from Club for Growth:
A poll released today by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into the lead in the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district to replace John McHugh, the former congressman who recently became Secretary of the Army.
The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll's margin of error is +/- 5.66%. . . .
Read the rest. The poll details are online in PDF format. This could be considered an "internal" poll, but it's the only poll released to date that fully refelects the "call the cops" meltdown by Scozzafava and the Palin endorsement. We're still waiting for the Quinnipiac numbers and the Thursday release of the next Siena poll.

UPDATE: At The American Spectator, Jim Antle writes:

Important caveats: The sample size is small, the undecided vote is large, Hoffman's lead is well within the nearly 6 percent margin of error, and the Club for Growth has endorsed Hoffman.
Of course -- grain-of-salt time. The most important thing in these numbers, however, is the indication that the liberal Republican Scozzafava has slipped into third place.

Remember that NY23 has consistently voted 2-to-1 for the conservative Republican Rep. John McHugh. So if GOP voters in the district perceive Scozzafava as a likely loser, you can expect a decisive shift toward Hoffman by Republican voters whose main concern is not to give Nancy Pelosi another Democratic vote.

If such a shift occurs, and Hoffman gets 60% of the GOP vote, that would likely put him at about 40% -- neck-and-neck with the Democrat Owens in a three-way race, with Scozzafava getting about 20%.

UPDATE II: Filling in for Allahpundit on the pessimism beat, Ed Morrissey says:
Republicans usually win this district easily, so a 4-point lead over a Democrat is still worrisome -- and this is just one poll. Twenty-two percent undecided voters will make the difference.
"Worrisome"? Not really. Hoffman has low name ID, while Scozzafava is part of the GOP leadership team in the NY Assembly. Scozzafava is especially well-known in her legislative district, but that has only about a quarter of the voters in the congressional district. Once Republican voters get the idea that (a) Hoffamn is the conservative, and (b) Scozzafava is a loser, the vote-shift toward Hoffman should be decisive.

An outcome in the range of Hoffman 45%, Owens 35%, Scozzafava 20% is easily possible. There is a TV debate this week, but you aren't likely to have enough public polling afterward to be able to project the final Election Day numbers. Hoffman's had a solid week of good news, and his staff are optimistic, but working hard and keeping their fingers crossed.

Now a Memeorandum thread. We're linked by Reaganite Republican and by Fisherville Mike, who once worked for the guy who's now managing editor of the Watertown (N.Y.) Daily Times.


Our complete coverage of the NY23 special election


  1. This has been another reason to go independent.

  2. The GOP should have thought about it before running a RINO in a conservative district!

    Hoffman is the real conservative... and the voters know it!

  3. Hoffman's advantage over Owens is not statistically significant, but his advantage over Dede is. And I'll give the Club for Growth credit for polling likely voters, which is exactly the group you want to be polling if you want to go for accuracy.

    Speaking of which, I sure hope the poll is accurate.

  4. Assuming that Hoffman wins, we'll have trouble with him down the line. He's a Bush/McCain clone on the immigration question, an open borders shill.

  5. "Assuming that Hoffman wins, we'll have trouble with him down the line. He's a Bush/McCain clone on the immigration question, an open borders shill."

    Never miss an opportunity to shoot yourself in the foot. How typical of why we've become the significantly minority candidate is perfect enough for us! Maybe if Anonymous had read the comprehensive McCain immigration bill he would have noticed the fines, the work visa requirements, the cycle back to home-land provisions, the employer fines for off-the-books employment, etc. etc.

    The Hoffman news would be excellent if it holds true, but the small sample size and the origin of the poll makes it difficult to give it much credence. Maybe other polls will confirm the trend. It would be good news!

  6. Will this election be one by the candidate with the largest plurality or will it result in a run-off between the top two candidates if no one wins a majority of the votes?

  7. Maybe if Anonymous had read the comprehensive McCain immigration bill he would have noticed the fines, the work visa requirements, the cycle back to home-land provisions, the employer fines for off-the-books employment, etc. etc.

    With people like you in the party the GOP has no need to shoot itself in the foot, it comes pre-crippled.

    FYI, I'm a hundred times more familiar with the McCain/Kennedy act then you are, and it is one of the most left-wing things the US government has ever attempted.

  8. Dudes: Why are we arguing immigration in this thread? Owens is a Democrat, a surefire vote for anything Pelosi wants. Dede is actually more liberal than Owens. Whatever Hoffman's stance on immigration -- I haven't even talked to his campaign about it -- it can't be so bad that he'd be worse overall than Owens or Scozzafava, so why the argument?

    As it stands now, Team Obama is putting all their strength into passing health care. If, in the midst of that legislative battle, the Dems woke up Nov. 4 to find that a sworn foe of Obamacare like Hoffman had just stomped to a 45% victory in a 3-way race in upstate New York -- in a district where Obama got 52% last fall -- don't you think that might have an impact?

    You must think strategically. A victory for Hoffman would cause Blue Dog Democrats to fear for their own re-elections. A victory for Hoffman would energize conservatives going into the 2010 primary season, and cause RINOs to ponder what might happen if the same kind of Tea Party/FreedomWorks/Club for Growth/Palin alliance lines up behind a conservative primary challenger.

    At this point, conservatives are like Washington's army after it was driven out of New York in 1776 and had to retreat all the way through New Jersey just to survive. We're on the south bank of the Delaware River at this point, and the opponent is on the north bank. A victory for Hoffman now would be like Trenton and Princeton.

    If you want to argue immigration, try the Sully-vs.-Buchanan thread, where every reasonable person will agree that Sullivan is a kook.

  9. I hope Hoffman wins.

    Which does not preclude me from pointing out that he'll be a vote for amnesty the next time it comes up.

    Or from pointing out that repeated amnesties are creating a country in which pretty soon people like Hoffman will not be able to win.

  10. We're hearing that Hoffman's name is getting well known at least in the eastern portion of the district.

  11. May I be so bold as to point out that if this poll was wrong the democrats wouldn't be running ads against him.

    The NRCC is costing themselves a lot of clout with this nonsense. They must really be afraid of Palin taking him over the line.

  12. i am really surprized that how Doug hoffman had got only 31.3%
    sumit patel

  13. Stacy's right: You gotta keep your eyes on the prize.

    Linked to at: