Saturday, October 31, 2009

Latest NY-23 Poll Says...A Blowout for Hoffman?

Guest-posted by Jimmie Bise of The Sundries Shack.

Public Policy Polling started a brand-new NY-23 poll today and the early numbers show a blowout for Hoffman, but let's not get too excited here.
With about 200 interviews down we had Hoffman 45 Owens 26 Scozzafava 17...her withdrawal will just make it that much easier for Hoffman
Here are your two Koh-I-Noor-sized grains of salt. First, the poll only includes 200 people, which is at least a third of what a solid poll should have. Second, the poll started before Scozzafava suspended her campaign and it's going to take a day or so for that news to propagate.

With Scozzafava out of the race, her 17-20 percent are going to be up for grabs and there's no good way to know right now how many will go to Hoffman and how many will roll over to Hoffman. Also, there is still a sizable number of undecided voters. If you add up the early PPP numbers, you come out with 12 percent undecided, who could break one way, the other, or both.

Stacy also just reported to me that a source has said that the NRA is going to flip its endorsement to Hoffman as well. That's not anywhere close to confirmed, but I'd expect it to be so in the relatively near future. Early Scozzafava endorsers like Gingrich and the NRA don't have anything to gain by letting their endorsement simply sit in a dead campaign, so I figure that the NRA will endorse Hoffman sometime today, if not tomorrow. Of course, if the confirmation does come through, you'll see it here.

Also, stay tuned for a tidbit from Stacy later today about the power of Hoffman with the local constabulary. I won't spoil the story, but it involves a certain carload of journalists going 87 MPH in a 65 MPH zone.

Stay tuned...

Our complete coverage of the NY-23 special election.


  1. Dede Scozzafava is bowing out. Win Hoffman Win.

    And David Brooks, E.J. Doinne, David Frum, Chrissy Buckley, and Newt "The late bloomer" Gingrich, how's that crow tasting? Nothing like a little scavenger chicken is there. Yumm.

  2. Is it possible for even bigger political news breaking today than Scozzafava dropping out in New York, and backing Hoffman?

    Yes, it's not only possible; it's just happened.

    Here it goes...


    Also had "several tickets" to the Obama rally tomorrow.

    East Rutherford, right in front of a High School. Reports that he was "shaking" and extremely nervous upon his arrest. He admitted to working for the Corzine campaign.

    Eric @ Libertarian Republican

  3. Great Post. Keep up the great work guys. Note: If our NY highway patrol warned you to slow down, instead of throwing the book at you, then thank them by telling us as little as possible, so as to not get any officer in trouble for the leniency.

  4. Cozine's aid was probably going to take his stash of drugs to the Biden appearance on Monday so Biden could transport them back to DC for the "won".

    Emmmm, wonder where the "won" smokes his own personal crack pipe? (L.Sinclair said he had his own.) Wonder if this is the reason the "won" seems incapable of making a decision? Is the brain fried? Or, does it take the chain of command from Soros that long to reach him? (cya type situation--nothing direct from pt. A to pt.B)