Sunday, August 24, 2008

Poll Watch update

Gallup: Obama 46%, McCain 44%
Rasmussen: Obama 48%, McCain 46%
WaPo/ABC: Obama 49%, McCain 45%

From the Washington Post:
Obama's selection of Biden is unlikely to shake up the race in the short term. Three-quarters of registered voters said Obama's choice of Biden, a six-term U.S. senator, would not sway their votes in either direction. And among those who said the selection would make a difference, about as many said they were more likely to support Obama with Biden on the ticket as said they would be less likely to do so.
But what if he had named Hillary? If Obama had named Clinton as his VP, 32% said they would have been more likely to vote Democrat, compared to 13% for Biden. Feel the burn, PUMAs! And let's watch that ad again, shall we?

Pity Obama

Ron Rosenbaum:
As Joe says "It's a journey." Right, and for poor Barack it’s going to be like he’s Steve Martin and Biden is John Candy in Planes, Trains and Automobiles. What was he thinking?
Indeed.

Feel the burn, PUMAs!

New ad from Team Maverick:

Ed Morrissey:
Instead of just focusing on the injustice Hillary received, the ad makes it about Obama and his inability to deal with her criticisms. This calls into question Obama’s leadership and his ability to separate the personal from the job — as well as refloat all of the specific issues Hillary mentions in these clips.
Who predicted this?
Especially for those swing voters who voted for Hillary in the Democratic primaries, it may come as a brutal shock to learn that the former First Lady won’t be on the ticket in November. The shock will be amplified when those voters learn that Obama’s choice was the result of an ABC (”Anybody But Clinton”) process that excluded Hillary from serious consideration months earlier.
And now Crazy Cousin John's rubbing salt in those fresh wounds, just in time for Denver.

The Gospel According to St. Eleanor

Eleanor Clift in Newsweek:
[V]oters think Obama would be better at handling the economy, and his relentless focus on middle-class tax cuts has insulated him from traditional Republican attacks on Democrats as tax-raisers.
The startling news in the bipartisan Battleground poll unveiled midweek by Lake and her Republican counterpart, Brian Nienaber, is McCain's 10 point lead among independents. The election outcome in November will likely hinge on that group, and they were supposed to be Obama's strong suit.
A few points:
  • No voter old enough to remember Bill Clinton's promise of middle-class tax cuts believes Obama's similar promise.
  • George Bush already gave the middle class huge tax cuts, including a refundable per-child tax credit.
  • Why is McCain's good standing with independents so "startling"? The man isn't called "Maverick" for nothing.
But Clift has been drinking the Kool-Aid ever since she gushed over the "surgical precision" of David Plouffe's Power Point presentation two months ago.

The Gospel According to St. Jacob

Jacob Weisberg in Slate:
To the rest of the world, a rejection of the promise [Obama] represents wouldn't just be an odd choice by the United States. It would be taken for what it would be: sign and symptom of a nation's historical decline.
Kool-Aid, anyone?

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Video: Biden in 1988

Via Hot Air:



Next time somebody accuses me of being a loudmouthed, arrogant smart-aleck -- man, that's leadership!

Fournier gets Malkinized

Journalists who contradict the Left's pet narratives are subject to Malkinization: Personal demonization with the object to completely discredit the journalist as a source of facts.

Witness Ron Fournier, a longtime political reporter with the Associated Press and certainly no right-winger, who led his analysis of the choice of Joe Biden's selection as Democratic running-mate thus:
The candidate of change went with the status quo.
In picking Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate, Barack Obama sought to shore up his weakness -- inexperience in office and on foreign policy -- rather than underscore his strength as a new-generation candidate defying political conventions.
He picked a 35-year veteran of the Senate -- the ultimate insider -- rather than a candidate from outside Washington, such as Govs. Tim Kaine of Virginia or Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas; or from outside his party, such as Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska; or from outside the mostly white male club of vice presidential candidates. Hillary Rodham Clinton didn't even make his short list.
The picks say something profound about Obama: For all his self-confidence, the 47-year-old Illinois senator worried that he couldn't beat Republican John McCain without help from a seasoned politician willing to attack. The Biden pick is the next logistical step in an Obama campaign that has become more negative -- a strategic decision that may be necessary but threatens to run counter to his image.
OK, it's an analysis and, as such, is subject to dispute. Yet even those who praise Obama's choice of Biden do so because Biden brings to the Democratic ticket the exact same qualities Fournier named: His experience in Washington, his credibility on foreign policy, his ferocity as an attack dog.

Yet the online Left cries foul. Why?
McCain campaign staffers are pushing [Fournier's story] fairly aggressively to other reporters, in large part because it mirrors the Republican line with minimal variation.
In other words, any analysis that might reflect a GOP perspective is prima facie illegitimate. Kos calls Fournier "McCain's mole at the Associated Press." Another blogger goes after Fournier for his speaker's fees.

It is only a matter of time before Fournier is totally Malkinized, his personal phone number and home address published online, e-mailed death threats, the works. The purpose of Malkinization is not merely to intimidate the direct object of the attacks, but also (a) to discourage other journalists from quoting or citing the journalist suspected of Republican sympathies and (b) to terrorize into silence any other Republican sympathizers in the media.

Bidenfreude?

Bidenfreude (n.) The joy Republicans feel at Democratic despondency over Obama's vice presidential choice.

Anita Thompson is a wonderful person. I should feel no pleasure at her glum reaction to Old Pluggy as Barack Obama's running-mate pick. Then again, I recall no sympathy from my liberal friends when Maverick somehow foisted himself on the GOP.

Besides, as Philip Klein reports from Denver, many Democrats in the Hyatt Bar think Joe's just dandy:
I struck up a conversation with an Obama volunteer from Portland, Oregon, and told him who I write for. After the speech, he came over and confidently said, "you guys are in trouble."
Though he acknowledged that Biden could be a "loose cannon," he thinks he's a known quantity who will bring experience to the ticket.
He was also convinced that Obama was not going to be like John Kerry, but would be prepared to fight back against Republican attacks -- especially because he took on the Clinton Machine. "That's like taking on the frickin' mafia," he exclaimed.
So cheer up, Anita: Obama's disciples believe the Messiah can do no wrong, including picking a veep candidate who comes complete with an extensive GOP oppo-research dossier.

D Minus-2: Gonzo on Veeps

I had been without sleep for two or three days at the time, and my temper was close to the surface. Beyond that, I had spent the past five or six days brooding angrily over the list of vice-presidential possibilities that McGovern had floated in the New York Times several days before the convention even started. I recall telling Mankiewicz in the coffee shop on Friday night that I had never seen so many bums and hacks listed in a single paragraph in any publication for any reason. . . .
But Frank assured me that my wrath was premature. "Don't worry," he said. "I think you'll be pleasantly surprised." . . .
So there was nothing personal in my loud objections to Eagleton a week later. It struck me as a cheap and unncessary concession to the pieced-off ward-heeler syndrom that McGovern had been fighting all along. Tom Eagleton was exactly the kind of VP candidate that Muskie or Humphrey would have chosen: a harmless, Catholic, neo-liberal Rotarian nebbish from one of the border states who presumably wouldn't make any waves.
-- Hunter S. Thompson,
Fear and Loathing: On the Campaign Trail '72
For some reason, the late Dr. G0nzo's words keep haunting me this year. While so many of the circumstances in this year's election are unprecedented ("vuja de," as George Carlin would say), Team Obama keeps making moves that recall the absurd overconfidence of the McGovern campaign in 1972, when Mankiewicz, Hart & Co. seriously believed that the unpopularity of Nixon and the Vietnam war would guarantee the election of whoever won the Democratic Party nomination.

Obama's choice of Joe Biden strikes me as eerily similar to McGovern's pick of Tom Eagleton 36 years ago. Unlike Eagleton -- a young nobody in '72 when he was tapped for the No. 2 spot -- Biden is a known quantity, and all of Biden's scandals are old news. While there may be some undiscovered conflict-of-interest scandal lurking in Joe's closet, we're unlikely to be shocked (pardon the pun) by any revelation of secret treatment for mental illness.

Yet Biden is definitely a concession to the Old Guard, "the Ultimate Washington Insider," as Patrick Ruffini says, and exactly the sort of Establishment figure that HST would have denounced as a "bum" and a "hack."

Beyond that, naming the choice in the wee hours Saturday completely undercuts the obstensible purpose of the text-message announcement idea. When this idea was originally announced, you could see its brilliance: About 11 a.m. on a weekday, for instance, the text message would go out, everybody would get it on their cellphones or Blackberries, and the name of the nominee would spread via word-of-mouth buzz in the workplace. Supporters would have the exciting memory of one of those "I remember exactly where I was" moments.

Instead, the campaign dawdled so long that (a) there could not possibly be any word-of-mouth factor, and (b) the MSM beat them to the punch. As Ed Morrissey says:
I’m not sure a political campaign could possibly screw up a running-mate announcement as badly as Team Obama.
Well, it could be done, Ed: McGovern waited until 4 p.m. on the Thursday of the convention before making the call to Eagleton. Still, as in '72, the disappointment of many on the Left is palpable, especially among Hillary's supporters like Jeralyn Merritt (who is "underwhelmed and greatly disappointed") and Big Tent Democrat, who says, "Hell of a rollout. Not."

Enough of that. My flight for Denver leaves tomorrow, and between now and then I've got two articles to write, including about 1,400 words of print-only reporting that will require me to transcribe audio (my least favorite job in the world). So I've got to stop blogging and start writing, and you can't expect many updates from me until I've at least made some headway on that stuff.

UPDATE: 350 words into writing the first of two pieces, I take a break to note Michael Goldfarb's observation:

But what's with holding the text message until 3 a.m. for Joe Biden? The only explanation that makes any sense is that Team Obama just couldn't resist one last dig at Hillary.

Allahpundit disagrees:

A likelier explanation: They meant to send it out this morning, but the networks scooped them by confirming the pick around midnight so they had to push it out ahead of schedule to save as much face as possible.

Either way, they've pushed it into the Saturday news cycle and blown whatever word-of-mouth buzz factor they might have gotten by sending the message in the middle of a weekday.

UPDATE II: Linked by Memorandum, Jeralyn Merritt at TalkLeft, Moe Lane at Red State, and Stephen Green at Vodka Pundit. Thanks all. And hey, Tommy Chong says Joe Biden's a narc -- pass it on, man!

UPDATE III: Ed Driscoll links with "The Enharshening of the Mellow." Wow. Heavy, man.

BIDEN VP WTF ROTFLMAO

The text message heard 'round the world.

Why did they wait until after midnight? What was the thinking there?

PJM has a quick rundown of blog reaction. I'll add more after I drink a cup of coffee.

UPDATE: OK, the straight news from Associated Press:
Barack Obama named Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware as his vice presidential running mate early Saturday, balancing his ticket with a seasoned congressional veteran well-versed in foreign policy and defense issues.
Obama announced the pick on his Web site with a photo of the two men and an appeal for donations. A text message went out shortly afterward that said, "Barack has chosen Senator Joe Biden to be our VP nominee."
Biden, 65, has twice sought the White House, and is a Catholic with blue-collar roots, a generally liberal voting record and a reputation as a long-winded orator.
You can say that again. And again.

UPDATE II: Man, that was quick:

UPDATE II: Something tells me the graphics department at Obama HQ wasn't very excited about having to work late Friday night on this announcement.

VodkaPundit's got the slogan:
Change you can believe in -- because it's been in Washington since 1973 already.
Yeah. That works.

UPDATE III: Michelle Malkin dubs it the "Smarmy & Smirky" ticket, probably because "Ren & Stimpy" was already taken.

Linking the story of Biden's notorious plagiarism, Ed Morrissey says:
Now Obama, who supposedly represents a new brand of politics, has instead hitched his wagon to an old-time pol who has trouble coming up with his own words when he campaigns. That’s desperation, and what’s more, it’s obvious desperation. And in politics, just as in dating, desperation is not an aphrodisiac.
Bridget Johnson of the Rocky Mountain News:
Joe Biden, change?? Biden, the sixth-longest-serving and notoriously long-winded senator? Biden, who was named a Face for the Future by Time magazine in his freshman senatorial year -- in 1974, before I was even born? Biden, who withdrew from the 1988 presidential race after speech-plagiarizing and school-grade-exaggerating scandals? Biden, who snagged a whopping 1% of Iowa delegates in January?
But, but, but ... Biden is so beloved by the "progressive netroots community"!

UPDATE IV: Gonzo on Veeps.

UPDATE IV: Linked by Fausta. Thanks.

UPDATE V: Linked by Dad29, who offers what is likely to be a common reaction of Catholic traditionalists to Obama's pick of a pro-choice "Catholic."

Friday, August 22, 2008

Team Obama hits Cindy McCain

Team McCain spokewoman responds:
"It is profoundly disappointing to see surrogates for Barack Obama attacking Cindy McCain, particularly after Obama himself claimed that 'families are off limits' and pledged to 'speak out against' attacks on spouses in this campaign. If Barack Obama expects the American people to believe he is a man of his word, he has a personal responsibility to condemn this ad."
(Via Hot Air.) But this is fine. If Team Obama wants to say spouses and personal income are fair game, then everything Michelle Obama has said or done, including her financial dealings with her husband's campaign donors, is now a reasonable subject of discussion. We'll see if Obama can take it as well as he dishes it out.

Still no Obama veep?

I took my family to a baseball game (the home team lost 6-1) and came home expecting that Obama would have announced his veep. Instead, nothing but rumors.

Everybody's hearing Biden. John McCormack at the Weekly Standard hears it's Biden. NBC says it's Biden.

Meanwhile, Hot Air found a story out of Kansas City that Obama-Bayh '08 bumper stickers were already being printed. But that fizzled and Team Obama says the announcement will come Saturday morning. Then CNN noticed a "flurry of activity" at the Biden residence. I think Allah nailed the general reaction:
Is that really happening? After a week of excruciating suspense, the big revelation is Joe Hairplugs?
Exactly. I mean, after all the wild speculation (hey, what happened to the Chet Edwards bubble?) now it comes down to a guy who made his first White House bid in 1988? Anti-climatic in the extreme. The oddly delayed announcement drew this reaction from Ed Morrisey:
In fact, one has to wonder whether Obama really had made up his mind, or whether his first or even second choice didn’t turn him down. That would explain the delays in the announcement, and the apparent disorganization of Team Obama in handling an event that should have underscored the seriousness of their candidate. After all, they set the expectation that the running mate announcement would come this week, and they missed their own target.
Is it still too late for Obama-Eagleton?

UPDATE 11:35 p.m.: Clinched?
The United States Secret Service has dispatched a protective detail to assume the immediate protection of Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., a source tells ABC News, indicating in all likelihood that Biden has been officially notified that Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, has selected him to be his running mate.
Sources also tell ABC News that two others said to be finalists for the position of Obama's running mate -- Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., and Virginia Gov Tim Kaine -- have been told they have not been selected for the vice presidential slot.
So says Jake Tapper, whose original claim to fame was having once dated Monica Lewinsky.

UPDATE 11:45 p.m.: Seems kind of obvious by now, but Hillary has been informed she's not the running mate. Meanwhile, given Biden's reputation for "clean and articulate"-type quotes, Dan Riehl says:
Secret Service enroute to protect Joe Biden? Better hurry before he shoots himself in the foot before the official announcement. That is, if his foot isn't already in his mouth, of course!
This promises 10 weeks of non-stop gaffes, clarifications, damage control and apologies.

UPDATE 12:20 a.m. Saturday: Politico:
As it now stands, his announcement will land on a weekend and bleed right into the nominating convention -- a time when a nominee can already expect to be nominating national attention.
What’s more, by keeping expectations hanging for so long, Obama makes it harder to deliver on all the anticipation. A weeks-long strip tease, ending with a naked Joe Biden or Evan Bayh -- or some other safe but unsexy choice -- might prove deflating.
The thing is, Joe is old news. Very old news. And he's got no executive experience. To jerk around the national press for a full week, only to deliver Joe Biden -- this is a disappointment. Imagine the reactions of those poor saps getting their text messages: "WTF? Dude. Joe Biden?"

Veep: Obama-Malkin '08

Look, if he's looking for somebody who can go on the attack against McCain, he couldn't do better:
Here is the latest RNC radio ad for John McCain. Message: McCain fought harder for illegal alien shamnesty, so Latinos should vote for him!
Just another reminder, my friends, that the GOP establishment continues to 1) treat Hispanics as a monolithic bloc of open-borders sheep; 2) put p.c. pandering above the rule of law; and 3) thumb its nose at the conservative base in pursuit of votes they’re not going to get anyway.
Besides, she's already in Denver, so . . .

I've got to take my kids to a baseball game now, so if Obama sends a text message while I'm gone, screw it.

Democrats tough on security

Michelle Malkin:
Every person inside the Pepsi Center has to have a badge with a bar code. You scan it to get in and out.
One of the few instances where the Dems believe in, and practice, tough border enforcement.
Yeah, but do they have one of these?

Olympic sex

A former Olympic athlete and journalist:
I am not implying, for one moment, that every athlete in Beijing is at it. Just that 99 per cent of them are.
One heard similar tales from Atlanta in '96. Chicks were like NBA groupies, trying to get into the Olympic village.

'House' attack not new

Seems Democrats have been warming up to this class warfare attack on Maverick for a few days.

UPDATE: Team Maverick keeps up the "celebrity" attack, painting Obama as a tax-raiser:


Via Hot Air.

Denver whine-athon

DNCC press release:
The Democratic National Convention Committee (DNCC) and the Obama for America campaign today announced that everyday Americans will speak each night of the Convention in primetime to share their voices as the people who have been powering Barack Obama’s campaign for change. . . .
The speakers selected to be part of the nightly program come from across the nation, but they are all brought together through their personal stories, which address real life challenges. . . .
On Monday night, Mike and Cheryl Fisher of Indiana will speak. After years of working to provide for their three children, the Fishers are facing the possibility of Mike being laid off from his job as an Amtrak mechanic. The Fishers believe Barack Obama is the best hope because he understands what it is like to face every day economic struggles.
"I'm just a poor railroader. I've got a small house and a family I'm trying to raise,”
said Mike. Barack and Michelle can relate to that because of their upbringing."
For crying out loud. Amtrak mechanic? Amtrak gets $1.9 billion -- that's "billion" with a "b" -- a year in subsidies from the American taxpayer. It used to be $1.2 billion, but the Senate voted last year to increase it:
The Senate on Tuesday authorized a sharp increase in federal money for Amtrak for six years. . . .
The Senate voted, 70 to 22, for $11.4 billion, or $1.9 billion a year, up from $1.2 billion that corporation has received in recent years. . . .
So when Mike Fisher goes on stage to sing his sad song -- and don't you just know he's probably got one of those union jobs that pays $65,000 a year with no-deductible health insurance? -- just remember that his job is already subsidized with your taxes.

What next? Unemployed buggywhip makers? Bankrupt purveyors of whalebone corsets?

PollWatch update

UPDATED & BUMPED: Gallup daily reports a 1-point race, Obama 45%, McCain 44%:
The race has clearly tightened and stabilized in recent days. Obama has received exactly 45% of the vote in the past four Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports, and McCain has received 43% or 44% support.
Thus, the candidates enter the high-intensity convention phase of the campaign essentially tied. Political observers are awaiting the news of whom Obama has selected as his vice presidential running mate, which could happen at any moment.
It's Hillary, right?

PREVIOUSLY:
Rasmussen's Electoral College report finds a narrowing gap between Obama and McCain. For a long time, despite the closeness of the national polls, Team Obama insisted that it had a lead in swing states, which was all that mattered in the Electoral College. But widespread trends in public opinion will eventually be reflected in the state-by-state polls, and that's the case now.

UPDATE: Rasmussen daily tracking poll shows Obama 47%, McCain 46%.

Last night's Fox News poll had Obama 42%, McCain 39%.

In state by state polling, the Detroit Free Press has Obama ahead by 7 points in Michigan, the Reno Gazette Journal has Obama up by 1 in Nevada, and a poll by Minnesota Public Radio shows Obama up 10 points there.

OBAMA VEEP HILLARY!

Sorry, just a joke. Quick, text all your friends:
By the time Barack Obama is ready to announce his vice presidential pick, will anyone believe him?
In recent days, as speculation and anticipation has mounted, so too have phony text messages declaring Obama’s supposed running mate -- from Evan Bayh and Hillary Rodham Clinton to Olympic gold medalist Michael Phelps.
It’s a cruel twist in a prolonged game of guessing that has put political junkies and Democratic supporters on edge since the campaign announced last week that it would disclose Obama’s choice through text messaging, which is expected to happen by Saturday.
In the absence of real information, pranksters have filled the gap with guidance from the website Wonkette.
Cruel, cruel summer.

Another Time cover for Obama?

Seventh time this year:
Another week, another magazine cover devoted to Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama.
Many bloggers vented their ire at Time magazine this week for publishing its seventh cover story on Obama in 2008 compared to only two for Republican rival John McCain. . . .
Obama and his family were featured on the cover of People magazine this month and he has also been a cover boy for GQ, Vanity Fair, Men's Vogue and Rolling Stone, among others.
Not that there's any bias, right? The actual article inside the magazine is a doozy:
If Barack Obama had not chosen a life in olitics, he might have made a fine psychotherapist. He is a master at taking what you've told him and feeding it right back. What I hear you saying is . . .
He has been called a window into the American psyche. Or you might say he's a mirror -- that you see depends on who you are and where you stand. Obama puts it this way: "I serve as a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views." But those metaphors all suggest that he is some sort of passive instrument, when in fact his elusive quality is an active part of his personality.
A riddle! An enigma! A conundrum! He's just so damned fascinating, don't you know, as to require seven Time magazine covers in a year.