Monday, July 28, 2008

Obama Bounce Watch

UPDATED & BUMPED: Holy freaking kamoley! USA Today poll now has McCain ahead by 4 points among likely voters:
The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.
I'll be back to comment, but first I have to go do my shift as a volunteer at the Progressive Suicide Prevention Hotline. Advice to parents with Obama supporters living in your basement: Hide the whiskey and sleeping pills.

UPDATE: I'm back. Busy night at the hotline. Ace notes that the unknown factor in this election is "the wild-eyed zealotry of Obama's cultists." Indeed. I haven't seen anything this kind of fanaticism since Heaven's Gate or Jonestown. If Squeaky Fromme weren't in federal prison, she'd be walking precincts for Obama.

Slight shrinkage for Obama in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll, as he lead is now 8 points (48%-40%), a decline from yesterday's 9-point lead.

This is minor good news for Crazy Cousin John. Obama's lead had grown from 2 points to 9 points in the span of three days, and if that trend had continued, Maverick would have been looking at a double-digit deficit today.

Remember that these tracking numbers are an average of a three-day rolling sample, so today's slight decline likely represents a fairly major dropoff from Saturday to Sunday. This could mean that Obama's starting to pay a price for skipping the visit to Landstuhl.

Or it could mean nothing at all. A single day's poll results really don't tell us much and, as I've said repeatedly, we won't have a clear snapshot of the state of the campaign until Thursday.

UPDATE: Thomas Edsall examines the dispute over whether polls indicate an inevitable blowout victory for Obama. As for supposedly "inevitable" outcomes, let me share a favorite quote with you:
I do not believe in a fate that will fall on us no matter what we do. I do believe in a fate that will fall on us if we do nothing.
The date was January 20, 1981.


  1. Holy cow! The RCP national average decreased to Obama +3.2 after being in the high +4s for the last few weeks. McCain's new found aggressive campaign tactics seem to be bearing fruit. Excellent!

  2. My wife, a Hillary supporter, says re Democrats jumping off bridges: "Except the Hillary supporters, who are pushing from behind."