Saturday, September 13, 2008

McCain +5 in Pennsylvania?

Zogby says McCain 49.1%, Obama 44.3% in Pennsylvania:
"This is a classic case of polling as a snapshot in time. We're turning Pennsylvania purple today, as McCain takes a small edge. But as in Ohio, we are watching this closely and things could change in this classically blue state."
Which suggests that Zogby doesn't really believe McCain will win Pennsylvania on Nov. 4. But Ed Morrissey understates the impact:
[I]f McCain takes Pennsylvania and holds Ohio and Florida, it will be difficult for Obama to prevail in a national election.
No, actually, if McCain takes either Pennsylvania or Michigan, it's lights out for Obama. (Zogby has Obama +5.7 in Michigan.) If the Republican wins Pennsylvania, it will be due to an overall strength that puts states like Virginia off-limits for Obama.

Zogby's Electoral College map closely resembles the 2004 Kerry-Bush map, which isn't good news for Obama. Zogby is correct to caution that these latest results reflect McCain at or near a post-convention peak, and the polls are likely to zigzag back and forth a few times yet. But for the Republican candidate to be in this position seven weeks before Election Day is surprising.

9/13: Obama: Good-bye, Florida?
9/12: Poll Watch Update


  1. I went to Zogby's site and read their quotes for other purples states. Here's what they said about Colorado (updated 9/13):
    "We always said this race was going to be close here. Some folks wondered why we made it purple last time when other polls showed Obama leading. That's because, once again, we were ahead of the curve."

    So if Zogby is relatively accurate about red turning purple, and PA just turned purple, then...

  2. Pennsylvania would be a huge loss for Obama.