Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Obama blows poll lead

Margin-of-error territory:
With less than two weeks to go before the start of the presidential nominating conventions, Barack Obama's lead over John McCain has disappeared. Pew's latest survey finds 46% of registered voters saying they favor or lean to the putative Democratic candidate, while 43% back his likely Republican rival. In late June, Obama held a comfortable 48%-to-40% margin over McCain, which narrowed in mid-July to 47% to 42%.
Perhaps they forgot to poll in Berlin. Obama's very popular there, I'm told.

UPDATE: According to this poll, 28% of those who supported Hillary in the Democratic primaries aren't supporting Obama. So 28% of 18 million is about 5 million. And 18% of Hillary's primary voters (about 3.25 million voters) say they'll vote for John McCain in November.

All together now: Raaaaa-cism!

UPDATE II: Ed Morrissey:
With two weeks before the convention, Obama needs a momentum reversal, and he needs it quickly.
Ed ignores the raaaaa-cism, but let me suggest something else that's being ignored: Many Hillary primary supporters have (falsely) assumed that she would be Obama's running mate, and haven't paid attention since. When Obama announces his (white male) running mate, he will lose support among women.

UPDATE III: I explained this last month:
These voters quite naturally assume that, after such a close-fought contest, Hillary has earned the right to be on the ticket. They haven't noticed Obama's comments and furious vetting efforts that show he's seeking an ABC ("Anyone But Clinton") running mate, with most speculation centering on Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine. And when it is finally announced that Hillary won't be on the ticket, it's going to be a huge jolt, one that many will perceive as a purposeful insult to the former First Lady.
Like Cagney and the grapefruit:

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