McCain surging?

It may just be a fluctuation, but John McCain, who was at 41% in the June 9 Gallup Daily tracking poll is now at 44%, while Barack Obama, who was 48% on June 9, is now at 46%. This is the third poll since June 13 in which Gallup has shown a 2-point race, which is a statistical dead heat.

Oddly enough, in its poll for USA Today, Gallup reports a 6-point lead for Obama. But the Newsweek poll (with Obama up 15 points) remains an anomaly. Early polls are apt to be a bit deceiving. It's June, and most people are thinking about vacation, not politics. Swing voters don't really pay much attention before Labor Day.