Friday, January 2, 2009

Stop fighting the inevitable

Wednesday, I said that if Republicans are looking for a candidate who can generate online enthusiasm, that candidate's name is Sarah Palin. And now comes the news that oddsmakers make Palin the favorite for the 2012 nomination.

Palin-haters will be apoplectic at this news, and Allahpundit writes:
Barring a catastrophic first term, The One will be heavily favored for reelection, leading young’uns like Jindal and Palin to bow out and bide their time until 2016.
Does Allah really believe that Obama's first term will not be catastrophic? I keep telling you guys: It won't work. Obama's proposals won't fix the economy, and if there is one thing the American voter will not abide, it's a long recession. Therefore, there is a real chance the GOP could take back the White House in 2012, and Palin is the most popular Republican candidate. Allah likes Romney and I like Romney, too, but Romney has never generated the kind of grassroots enthusiasm that Palin ignited.


  1. I couldn't agree with you more. I am so annoyed at republicans who think 2012 is not winnable. More than 10% of conservatives stayed home and refused to vote for McCain and RINOs in 2008. Obama only won by 6%

    I am 25yrs. old and a conservative. My Cuban American father who is 68 told me that he never thought he would see a candidate that resembled Ronald Reagan until he saw Palin. My father is a huge Nixon and Reagan fan.
    I am so enthused with Palin. Honestly, I was not a huge fan of any of the republican candidates during the primaries. I liked Giuliani out of the bunch since he was from NYC and I am in NJ and witnessed first-hand how he transformed the city and his leadership.
    But I really became excited for Palin. I read about her in March 2008 and wrote to McCain's campaign several times to choose her for VP.
    I admire her as a fiscal conservative, hunter and member of the NRA, self-made, a son as a soldier, and a son who is autistic whom she did not abort. Finally someone who has conservative principles and lives them out.
    I am a member of Team Sarah and will definitely support her in 2012. The MSM is already trying to push Huckabee, Romney, and Jindal (whom I like) on our faces, but our heart is for Palin. They are afraid of the prospect of Palin in 2012 defeating their Obambi. So, they are trying to paint her as a "crazy, dumb hick" and that no one would have the audacity to vote for her after 2008. I am sick of the MSM and their garbage. They tried to paint Bush and Reagan as cowboys who knew nothing, yet it didn't work since both men got elected twice.
    I wish Palin the best and will look forward to 2012, because I know how much of a disaster Obama will be --a Jimmy Carter 2.0. I never thought I would live through a Carter era. Oh boy.

  2. There are a few problems with your analysis. First of all, recessions are usually caused by market forces over which public policy has only a limited effect. Most recessions come and go within a couple of years. The president who happens to be in office when they start gets the blame, the president who happens to be in office when they end gets the credit. Unless this recession is unusually long, Obama will look like the guy who fixed the economy.

    Second of all, Palin does have a certain appeal for a certain segment of the electorate, but it was clear that after the initial excitement she ended up being a drag on the McCain ticket. Her appalling performance in interviews demonstrated that she is even more ignorant and inarticulate than B*sh. She will be destroyed in a face-off with Obama. She will babble incoherently while he will look poised, confident, and in command just as he did during the last campaign. He'll have the advantage of being the sitting President, with the hardware and prestige that entails. Palin has been "defined" by late-night comedians, and I don't think she can easily dispel the impression that the public already has of her.

    I don't begrudge you your enthusiasm over Palin. No doubt she stirs something deep in your loins. If it were not for the cringe-inducing embarrassment that she provokes, I would welcome Palin as the Republican nominee. It would ensure an Obama landslide in 2012. But please, can't you leave the poor woman alone? Don't you think she suffered enough?

  3. Oh, yeah - Palin is absolutely the real deal. Talk about an amazing speaker! I went to one of her rallies during the campaign, and I've never seen anyone who can connect with, and fire up, a crowd the way she does.

    I'd love to see her debate Obama. Her takedown of Biden in the VP debates was great. Her poise and confidence would look fantastic next to Obama's "uh, uh, um".

  4. First, I AGREE, R. S. with your point that Allahpundit is WRONG about the innevitable Obama second term in 2012. Second, the reason that there was a drag on the GOP ticket was not Gov. Palin's fault but the man at the top of the ticket, your Crazy Cousin John. And the way that Team McCain did not handle the Palin rollout better shows that a McCain presidency may have been a real disaster. I think that Gov. Palin needs to run for reelection for governor, not the senate. She will win easily. I write this as the rare enthusiatic Romney supporter. As far as Jenny, you are right on target as many conservatives did stay home. Anon, I remember ALL of this was done to one Ronald Reagan by the left. Yet, he won not once but twice, both by true landslide margins. A lot will happen between now and 2012. And, keep in mind "It will not work."

  5. Thanks, RSM. You're right as usual. I don't think people understand how serious this recession is or how dangerous Obama's Keynesian cures will be.

    And posters like "anonymous" cleverly overlook Palin's performance in her debate and in the countless other interviews she has given. Apparently one less than perfect interview is enough to destroy a candidate for all time.

    I wonder if he's ever seen the video of Reagan's embarrassing performance before the Tower Commission?

    One of the greatest female politicians of all time got owned on live television by an ordinary citizen. I'm speaking of Margaret Thatcher who was grilled by a housewife on her decision to sink the Belgrano. (see the video of it here:

  6. Anonymous, McCain (the one named John I mean) was a drag on the McCain/Palin ticket.

    Though not quite as big a drag as Bush.

    Yes it's true, the media and late night comedians do dislike Palin, But believe it or not Anonymous, they are not representative of the American electorate.

    As to McCain's analysis (the one with the initials R.S. this time) that Americans won't put p with an administration who's policies don't ameliorate poor economic conditions, does the name Franklin Delano Roosevelt mean anything to you?

  7. Roosevelt was re-elected three times. What's your point? That we should repeal the 22nd Amendment so that Obama can be re-elected to a third term in 2016?

    I'm fine with that.

  8. It's amazing how easily these pessimist forget history and declare Obama inevitable for re-election.

    Barely over a year ago Hillary was inevitable for the Republican nomination, while McCain had no chance on the Republican side.

    By summer of 1991, it was clear that Bush Sr. was inevitable for reelection in 1992.

    In 1976, it was clear that, in the wake of Watergate, the Republican party was finished.

    In 1994, in the wake of Clinton's 1992 win (what happened to the inevitable Bush Sr. reelection?) that Republicans were finished.

    In summer 2004, Kerry's defeat of the younger Bush was inevitable.

    And yet all those "inevitables" above never happened. You'd think people would learn by now, but excessive whiny ass pessimism clouds the judgment just as bad as pollyannish optimism.

    Also, for those who think the recession will be just another short, painless recession, it's pretty clear you didn't live through (or don't remember) the stagflation of the 1970's, and it's abundantly clear that you've never read a book about The Great Depression.

  9. I'm supporting Jindal.

    Jindal/Palin in 2012!