Friday, July 25, 2008

Ruh-roh: Is this a bounce?

Barack Obama moves to a 5-point lead (49%-44% including leaners) over John McCain in the latest Rasmussen daily tracking poll. Just a week ago, Rasmussen had it tied at 46%. This is the biggest lead for Obama in the Rasmussen poll since July 8.

UPDATE: Confirmed. Houston, we have a bounce! After three days in the 2%-4% range, it's now Obama 47%, McCain 41% in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll. But a six-point lead isn't new for Obama: He also led by six points on July 5, July 10, and July 20.

The day Obama arrived in Afghanistan, I said that we would have to wait until July 31 to know the full impact of this trip on public opinion. But if Obama's media admirers want to go ahead and exchange high fives now, go right ahead. Nothing like counting those chickens before they're hatched . . . or "come home to roost," as Rev. Jeremiah Wright might say.

UPDATE II: I'm surprised at some progressive bloggers setting their readers up for potential heartbreak by reading too much into today's polls. These tracking polls are based on three-day averages of rolling samples and -- over time -- give a good idea of the trend in the race. But this one-day bump to a 6-point lead in the Gallup only returns Obama to where he was on July 20. While Obama might maintain or expand that lead in the next round of daily tracking, it's also entirely possible that he might drop back to the statistically insignificant 2%-3% range in the near future.

God help us if any national poll ever shows McCain leading -- the Democrats will have to turn their vote-canvassing phone banks into suicide-prevention hotlines, and convert their meetups into depression therapy groups. Get a grip, people -- it's only July.

UPDATE III: Linked by Allahpundit, who asks:
Saturation coverage, adoring crowds, no major mistakes: If this isn’t enough to reassure voters jittery about him, what hope left does he have for a big lead?
I wouldn't say he's made no major mistakes. He didn't visit Landstuhl, essentially because he was told he couldn't turn it into a campaign photo op -- a decision that reinforces the fact this entire trip was nothing but a campaign photo op. Obama's "citizen of the world" rhetoric was also a mistake, exposing him to widespread ridicule.

It's too early to try to assess the impact. We still have three days before Obama returns stateside -- a scene that should be like JFK Airport on Feb. 7, 1964:

(You know, that music is still jammin'. More? Did I hear somebody say "more"?)


  1. you are a sad and lonely person. based on the fact that your last dozen posts have received a total of one comment (not counting this one), it would seem that despite the laudatory comments from pam atlas and jimmy somebody, nobody actually does read this blog.

    personally, i would feel humiliated by this point. not even your own peeps flock around.

    sad sad little man.

  2. Ignore "anonymous"...

    Sometimes people enjoy absorbing opinion, instead of trying to hijack it and inject their own spin.

    Write on.

  3. Thanks, NNN. In general, Left blogs are more about participation than is true of blogs on the Right. Just about any juvenile rant on DKos will generate 300+ comments. It doesn't at all reflect on the quality of the material, just that lefties enjoy commenting. Having built a readership of 1,000+ daily since March, I'm not at all "humiliated," and the mockery of "anonymous" doesn't bother me in the least.