Thursday, July 17, 2008

Polling update

As of Thursday, the breakdown of the Rasmussen Electoral College report is:
Or, including the leaners:
Which is to say, if the election were held today, Obama wins. Unfortunately for Obama, Election Day is still more than three months away.

Recent state polls from Rasmussen:
Nevada -- Obama 42, McCain 40
N. Carolina -- McCain 45, Obama 42
Kansas -- McCain 52, Obama 32
Arkansas -- McCain 47, Obama 37
Discussion: McCain's strong lead in Kansas is good news, and could be parlayed into a stronger showing in other nearby states -- Missouri and Colorado -- where Obama hopes to compete. The narrow margin in North Carolina has to worry McCain's campaign; his immigration stance really hurts him with blue-collar North Carolinians, who are furious about the seeming endless influx of illegals in the past 10 years. Strange, however, that Arkansas (with a very similar situation) remains solid for McCain. Nevada is one of the states to watch; Barr could be a factor there.

National polls: The RCP average is Obama 45.9%, McCain 41.8% -- a 4.1% spread in the Democrat's favor. But that average includes a Quinnipiac poll that has Obama ahead 50-41, a nine-point spread unmatched by any other recent poll. Both tracking polls show the race a dead heat -- Rasmussen has it a tie (46-46) and Gallup has Obama by 2 points (46-44), which is within the margin of error.

Summary: The situation remains what it has been. Obama has a very small but persistent lead in national polls. The Electoral College currently favors the Democrat. The race remains Obama's to lose, but there's still a long way to go. The best news for McCain is that, a month before the conventions begin, Obama has not opened up the kind of commanding lead that would make him the presumptive winner. The "bandwagon effect," in other words, has not shifted against the Republican, as might have been feared, given the overall anti-GOP mood.

1 comment:

  1. "...Obama has now opened up the kind of commanding lead that would make him the presumptive winner." - Did you really mean "not" instead of "now"?