Thursday, June 19, 2008

Incredible. Just incredible.

A story that got overlooked earlier this year: In Dallas, it was discovered that a 12-year-old girl had danced nude in a strip club -- and yet the club was allowed to keep its license:
The mere fact that a 12-year-old girl danced nude at a northwest Dallas strip club isn't enough to close its doors.
That's because the city ordinance that regulates sexually oriented businesses does not allow authorities to revoke the license of such a business for employing someone under the age of 18.
The sixth-grader danced at Diamonds Cabaret over a two-week period late last year, authorities say. They also say they found a 17-year-old girl working in the club in January. . . .
"There's a laundry list of things we can use to deny or revoke a license, but having a 12-year-old dancing in their establishment is not one of the things that automatically enables us to revoke their license," said Lt. Christina Smith, a vice unit commander who oversees licensing of such establishments.
This is insane. If there were any sanity left in the world, an angry mob of citizens would have stormed down there, burnt that club to the ground, tarred and feathered the owners, and ridden them out of town on a rail.

Someone please explain to me how (a) there is nothing in Texas law that prevents preteens from performing as strippers, and yet (b) Texas officials can execute a SWAT raid on that polygamist compound and seize more than 400 children on the basis of a bogus tip?

I guess if "reality TV" can have pre-teen pole dancers . . .

UPDATE: In other 12-year-old news:
A Canadian court has lifted a 12-year-old girl's grounding, overturning her father's punishment for disobeying his orders to stay off the Internet, his lawyer said Wednesday.
The girl had taken her father to Quebec Superior Court after he refused to allow her to go on a school trip for chatting on websites he tried to block, and then posting "inappropriate" pictures of herself online using a friend's computer.
The father's lawyer Kim Beaudoin said the disciplinary measures were for the girl's "own protection" and is appealing the ruling.
"She's a child," Beaudoin told AFP. "At her age, children test their limits and it's up to their parents to set boundaries."
(Via Ace.) Hmmm. Twelve-year-olds posting "inappropriate" photos on the Internet. Judges who won't let parents enforce discipline. Do you think these two phenomena might be related?

UPDATE II: For some reason, Whiskey Fire believes the fact that this is part of a custody case means that one cannot draw "broad social or cultural conclusions" from it. I'll keep this in mind the next time some idiot blows up an abortion clinic -- just another isolated incident. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Luce Ladies: The Video



The Clare Boothe Luce Policy Institute is one of my favorite organizations, providing leadership training to conservative women. As they point out in the video, they offer paid internships in Washington, sponsor the monthly Conservative Women's Network luncheons in Washington, and help students bring speakers like Michelle Malkin, Star Parker, Amanda Carpenter, Bay Buchanan and Ann Coulter to college campuses.

I first learned about the Luce Ladies when Lisa De Pasquale (who is now CPAC director) was CBLPI program director and invited me to a CWN luncheon to hear Kate Obenshain speak. That RSVP was a no-brainer: "Let's see, a roomful of conservative women and a free lunch. Yeah, I'll be there."

Since then, I've gotten to know Michelle Easton and her staff, and always do what I can to promote the organization. (Including blogging about their annual calendar.) As a matter of fact, Kathleen McCann -- CBLPI's lecture director, who is interviewed in the video -- joined the Luce Ladies after I recommended she get in touch with them last year.

CBLPI works hard to provide role models, mentoring, education, and networking opportunities for young conservative women, both in Washington and on college campuses across the country. Liberal bias in academia has an especially heavy impact on women students, since feminist ideologues in women's studies programs promote the notion that all women are (or should be) "progressive."

Student activists trained by CBLPI push back against that message, making sure their fellow students hear about conservative ideas their professors never tell them about. Just in watching that 5-minute video, I saw the faces of CBLPI-trained students like Allison Aldrich who are really making a difference.

Little wonder, then, that the Left has taken notice of CBLPI's success. The Nation, America's leading liberal magazine, recently called the Luce Ladies "the conservative group to watch in the upcoming years."

You know you're doing something right when the Left starts warning people about how dangerous you are. So give the Left something to worry about: Support the Lucy Ladies.

Evangelicals vs. McCain

Tim Carney, now writing the Evans & Novak Political Report, sees trouble for John McCain:
On the religious conservative side, McCain is also facing difficulties. Ineptitude and insensitivity resulted in insults to two evangelical leaders, the Rev. John Hagee and Focus on the Family's James Dobson.
Hagee has told friends that McCain "threw [him] under the bus," by soliciting his endorsement, and then disowning him after news came out about a previous offensive-sounding comment about Hitler. . . .
McCain also bungled an opportunity to patch things up with Dobson, who is very influential. Dobson had said last year that he could never vote for McCain, but this spring, he reached out to the nominee. Dobson wanted a meeting in Colorado Springs, but McCain demanded a meeting in Denver. No meeting ever happened.
There is little in McCain's record as a senator to upset evangelicals, but little to excite them either. . . . To evangelicals . . . he doesn't come across as "one of us."
(Hat-tip: Kleinheider.) It's not just evangelicals who don't perceive McCain as "one of us." The Republicans seem to be counting on voters perceiving Obama as "one of them."

UPDATE: Donald Rumsfeld also doesn't consider McCain "one of us":
Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld recently declined to answer whether he will support Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for president. . . .
McCain has said that Rumsfeld will "go down as one of the worst secretaries of defense in history." . . .
Rumsfeld told The Hill that he has not followed the presidential elections, but instead has been focused on work for his private foundation.
Asked whether that meant he wasn’t going to support McCain, Rumsfeld answered: "I have not been involved at all."
That's going to leave a mark.

High school baby boom

Weird story from Gloucester, Mass.:
As summer vacation begins, 17 girls at Gloucester High School are expecting babies -- more than four times the number of pregnancies the 1,200-student school had last year. . . . School officials started looking into the matter as early as October after an unusual number of girls began filing into the school clinic to find out if they were pregnant. By May, several students had returned multiple times to get pregnancy tests, and on hearing the results, "some girls seemed more upset when they weren't pregnant than when they were," [principal Joseph] Sullivan says. All it took was a few simple questions before nearly half the expecting students, none older than 16, confessed to making a pact to get pregnant and raise their babies together. Then the story got worse. "We found out one of the fathers is a 24-year-old homeless guy," the principal says, shaking his head.
(Via Hot Air Headlines.) Despite the obvious fact that these girls wanted to get pregnant, the idea that teenage pregnancy must always be an accident, the result of ignorance -- that what kids need is more classes about condoms and pills -- nevertheless persists:
[A]fter nurse practitioner Kim Daly had administered some 150 pregnancy tests at Gloucester High's student clinic, she and the clinic's medical director, Dr. Brian Orr, a local pediatrician, began to advocate prescribing contraceptives regardless of parental consent, a practice at about 15 public high schools in Massachusetts.
It's an interesting story, so read the whole thing.

UPDATE: Allahpundit asks, "Any theories?" A couple:
  • Nature triumphs over nuture. Let's face it: Baby-making is biologically programmed into the female psyche. Absent any strong incentive against getting knocked up -- i.e., ferociously protective parents who threaten to beat the living daylights out of any guy who tries to get frisky with their daughter -- this is what will happen.
  • The power of suggestion. The school has a program to keep pregnant students from dropping out. Once the girls see one of their classmates walking around with a baby, they get ideas in their heads.
If you really want to understand the issue of teen pregnancy, you should read Maggie Gallagher's The Age of Unwed Mothers (available online in PDF format).

Video: Obama breaks a promise

He offers a dishonest rationale for breaking his pledge to participate in the public campaign financing system. (Via Time and Hot Air Headlines.)



The obvious conclusion is that Obama was willing to go whichever way would allow him to raise more money than the Republicans. He promised to stick to the public-financing system (which caps his contributions at about $85 million) because it sounded good at the time. Now, ignoring the millions that Soros & Co. have pumped into Democratic 527s, he breaks his pledge, claiming that Republicans are going to use 527s to gain some sort of unfair advantage. Unbelievable.

Obama-Pooh '08

Michelle Malkin notes that the "army of Photoshoppers" has been busy illustrating the idea promoted by an Obama adviser that Winnie the Pooh is a "fundamental text on national security." (This image is via American Elephant.) For some reason, Pooh's name was left off the list of the advisers on Obama's "senior working group on national security."

Given the Democratic nominee's need for gravitas on foreign policy, I think Pooh deserves consideration as Obama's running mate.

Remember: You can't spell "Hope" without "Pooh"!

Video: Barr says drill ANWR now!

In an online interview with the Washington Post, Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr says "we do need to begin immediately, as quickly as possible, drilling in ANWR":



Both John McCain and Barack Obama are opposed to drilling the estimated 86 billion barrels in ANWR. Barr, the only pro-drilling candidate, also appeared yesterday on Neil Cavuto:

The Don Young intern guide

Some interns in the office of pork-barreling Alaska Rep. Don Young put together an "intern survival guide," including tips for dealing with the congressman's wife. But, as the Wall Street Journal reports, the guide's reference to an "A-Team" -- people whose phone calls are to be put directly through to whomever they call -- includes the names of several lobbyists:
Some, like [Rick] Alcalde, are tied to an ongoing investigation into a $10 million earmark Young secured for Coconut Road in Florida. Alcalde, a transportation lobbyist, worked for a real estate developer who sought the earmark and was a major financial contributor to Young’s campaign. [Randy] DeLay is the Houston-based lobbyist brother of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, [Jack] Ferguson is a former chief of staff to Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens, who is also under federal investigation.
(Via Memeorandum.) Someone said to me the other night that what happened to the Republican congressional majority after 1995 is they saw how the Democrats had done business and figured, "Hey, that's the way it's done." Of course, the people who had elected them had other ideas, and once it became apparent that the Republicans were no different than the Democrats, the people figured they might as well just stay home on Election Day. The epitaph on the tombstone of the conservative revolution should read, "Business as usual."

AFP balloon visits Marietta today

Americans for Prosperity is bringing its Hot Air Tour to Marietta, Ga., today. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Jim Galloway reports:
The Georgia chapter of Americans for Prosperity, an anti-tax group, is hosting a Thursday event featuring free a hot-air balloon ride, to underline what it says are the harsh economic consequences of fighting global warning.
AFP already had its “Hot Air Tour” up and floating elsewhere during the Washington debate over the now-stalled Lieberman-Warner climate bill, which calls for capping carbon dioxide emissions from power plants, transportation and industrial sources.
The AFP will have its balloon (and 70-foot tether) at Jim Miller Park in Marietta at 11 a.m. Thursday.
Word is that you don’t have to present yourself as a global warming skeptic to go up in the balloon. But they may ask for a different answer before they bring you down.
They'll be in Birmingham, Ala., and Nashville, Tenn., on Friday. Yesterday, they were in Savannah, Ga. , where Jamie Durden reports:
Tim Phillips, president of AFP, says if one particular piece of legislation called "cap-and-trade" passes, it could make our energy sources so expensive, it would cripple middle Amercians.
"Right now we rely on so much of the Middle East for our oil and that's not the answer," he said. "We have something like 21 billion barrels of oil right here off the continental shelf. We should go out and get that and look for new technologies and to have a prospersous economy is the best way to make sure we're finding new technologies."
The success of the balloon tour demonstrates that, even in the 21st-century "new media" age, nothing beats good old-fashioned ballyhoo in terms of generating public attention.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Historic news I can't quote

Maryland voters have made history by electing the state's first female Africa-American congresswoman. I'd tell you more, but the Associated Press is threatening to charge bloggers $2.50 a word now.

However, I can still quote the Washington Post for nothing, and can report that the special election was marked by "exceptionally low turnout." That news would cost you $7.50 from the AP.

McCain drills Obama

Very good zinger:
For Senator Obama, the solution to every problem and the answer to every challenge is a new tax. And he is convinced that a 1970’s-style windfall profits tax is just what America needs in the 21st Century. . . .
When I announced this policy the other day, Senator Obama wasted no time in mischaracterizing it. He described my position as -- you guessed it -- another example of Bush’s third term. I guess the senator has changed his position since voting for the 2005 Bush energy bill -- a grab-bag of corporate handouts that I opposed. Come to think of it, that energy bill was the only time we’ve ever seen Senator Obama vote in favor of any tax break -- and it was a tax break for the oil companies.

Now that's more like it, Maverick. Amazing how much better Crazy Cousin John does, once he gets on the right side of an issue. Don Surber says, "Bush’s third term? I can only wish. Beats Jimmy Carter’s second."

More terrorism by Kony

Joseph Kony's LRA terrorists have struck again, this time in South Sudan:
The South Sudanese army (SPLA) clashed with a group of LRA fighters at Nimule, on the border with Uganda, on Sunday, according to UN sources. The SPLA reportedly killed three members of the LRA and captured one. . . .
[Ugandan army] spokesperson Capt. Chris Magezi . . . confirmed the presence of an LRA group in Pageri, 40km north of the Ugandan border, over the weekend.
"On Saturday night, around 30 LRA fighters attacked the village of Pageri. They looted food and abducted two people, a man and a woman. The woman was later released," Magezi said yesterday.
According to army intelligence, the group crossed the River Nile again on Sunday night.
"They moved in the direction of Kajo Keji, heading back towards Garamba National Park (in the eastern DR Congo)," Magezi said. "We think they came to get weapons and food."
The Rev. Sam Childers, whose Angels of East Africa missionary orphanage is at Nimule, reports that the orphanage is safe. Childers is seeking contributions to fund his next trip to Sudan.

Although the Ugandan army is ready to go after the LRA, the spineless State Department continues to urge negotiations with Kony's gang of thugs. Kony's LRA has mercilessly killed, kidnapped and mutilated Ugandan and Sudanese civilians, sending hundreds of thousands fleeing as refugees. If a terrorist had done this to Americans, would we be negotiating?

Democrat: Don't deport the hotties!

Hope for a bipartisan consensus?
A New York congressman who has been romantically linked by tabloid newspapers to several high-profile, beautiful women, is one step closer to creating a special work permit for foreign fashion models.
Democratic Congressman Anthony Weiner, a 43-year-old bachelor, has proposed legislation giving international beauties their own U.S. visa category, rather than have them compete with computer analysts and scientists for the non-immigrant H-1B visa for skilled professionals.
"From Fashion Week to our vibrant publishing industry to the many designers that call New York City home, fashion is a vital part of our economy that drives thousands of jobs," Weiner said in an email to Reuters.
The New York Post recently romantically linked Weiner to Huma Abedin, who was recently featured in Vogue magazine.
Huma Abedin is glamorous, all right, but Weiner's not the only Democrat linked to Abedin. Weiner's "H-1B for Hotties" proposal was unearthed by David Weigel of Reason, prompting Jim Antle to endorse the Weiner plan as "a principled exception to my restrictionist position . . . an increase in immigration I can support."

The congressman's proposal reminds me of the original "gee-hottie," Fawzia Mohamed, Miss Egypt 2006, who I'm sure could get an H-1B visa anytime she wants one. Obviously, Fawzia is a powerful force for freedom in the Middle East -- nobody wants to put her in a burqa.

Hillary's moves

She makes exactly one joint appearance with Obama, then announces she'll disappear for a month:
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) is taking a month off from Congress to recuperate after her marathon run for the presidency.
She is not expected to return to the Senate until July 7 or July 8 after the Independence Day recess, according to two Democratic sources. . . .
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), a stalwart supporter of Clinton's presidential bid, would say only that she and former President Bill Clinton "wanted to go somewhere private and far away where she could rest."
So, for three weeks, while Obama tries to get Hillary's supporters to rally behind him and unite the Democrats, the Clintons will be in seclusion. You can almost hear Bill saying, "Yeah, you go ahead and campaign, Barack. We'd love to help you, but . . . aw, man, we're just so tired, y'know? Anyway, good luck, buddy. We're outta here." Meanwhile, Hillary's friends are still spinning for her:
ABC News chief Washington correspondent George Stephanopoulos saw what he called "danger signs" for Obama. . . .
Women, particularly married white women, however, may be a problem for Obama, according to the Washington Post/ABC poll.
It showed that McCain has a 20 point advantage over Obama among married white women, a group that George Bush also won in the last two presidential elections.
Stephanopoulos told GMA that the figure was a "danger sign" for Obama. "This is a huge gap that Obama has to close if he's going to do well."
LBJ in 1964 was the last Democratic president to win a majority of white voters. That's a fact -- you can look it up -- and the 20-point gap among married white women is not anomalous; it's fairly close to the situation faced by Al Gore and John Kerry. So by hyping that one demographic, Stephanopoulos is just playing the loyal Clintonista.

The empty suit

Karl at Protein Wisdom examines the career of Barack Obama and concludes:
Much of Obama's lofty message of unity and hope really came from campaign consultant David Axelrod, who "long ago hatched the idea that Democrats' campaigns should revolve more around personality than policy." . . .
In sum, Barack Obama's record, judgment and message are at best entirely undistinguished in the field of presidential politics. At worst, we have Axelrod's campaign of personality attracting a cult of followers so creepy that even many Obama backers are put off by it, to a man who admits he is a "blank screen,” with a message that is either illusory or tyrannical. It is in those people that I find little to admire.
On his first day as the presumptive Democratic candidate for president earlier this month, Barack Obama committed a serious foreign policy blunder. Reciting a litany of pro-Israeli positions at the annual meeting of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), he avowed: "Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel, and it must remain undivided."
In promising U.S. support of Israel's claims to all of Jerusalem, Obama couldn't have picked a better way to offend the world's 325 million Arabs and 1.5 billion Muslims.
Of course, once the AIPAC conference was over, Obama took it back, and said he didn't realy mean it.

Anne Hathaway single again

Seems the brunette "Get Smart" hottie just ditched Raffaello, her Clinton-connected bad-boy beau. The important question: Now that she's dumped her Eurotrash paramour, will Anne also stop running around half-naked?

She's alive!

When last we heard from Mary Katharine Ham, she was leaving Townhall.com to go to The World's Least Important Newspaper. I warned at the time that she was heading into the Bermuda Triangle of journalism, and feared that she might never be heard from again.

Yet I came home just now to find a Facebook message telling me that indeed, she survives! Granted, she appears to be sharing space with a bunch of losers -- like this guy -- but she is at least verifiably in existence, which is more than can be said for Bill Sammon. (One hears the occasional rumor that Bill's still out there somewhere, but no one can say for sure.)

Seriously, MK: I was downtown Tuesday night and passed by an Examiner box. The main front page headline was about Tiger Woods winning the U.S. Open. Way to go, getting the big exclusive there! Man, nobody else is going to have that story, and it's the kind of inside-Washington stuff that really makes a difference. Your investigative team on Capitol Hill probably put in a lot of overtime to get that scoop. Drudge must have gone crazy for that one, y'know what I mean?

I figure Anschutz hired MK for the online job as a precursor to putting her in charge of the whole doggone paper, since she's got way more news sense that whatever clueless clown is in charge now. I give her about six months before she mounts a coup to depose the current editor. In the meantime, we can still turn on Fox and watch MK:

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Fertility scoreboard

Just because you can't hang with my "brute baby-making force," Will Wilkinson, there's no need to go projecting your psychological insecurities onto others. I'm up 6-0, and you'll just have to learn to cope with being on the losing end of this Darwinian thing. Just hang out there in your genetic cul-de-sac, and I'll keep on surfing my personal demographic wave into the future.

And as to you, Megan McArdle, you may say "ever-increasing populations are neither sustainable nor desireable," but it's sure a lot of fun to try.

Surf's up!

ChiComs on Obama

This is hilarious:
"Obama's skin color is the biggest focal point of this year's U.S. election," said the opening line in a front-page editorial in the overseas edition of Monday's People's Daily newspaper. . . .
The editorial sought to explain that Obama's breakthrough should not be understood as a demonstration that race relations have crossed a threshold in the United States that China has yet to approach. Obama, it said, became the Democratic Party's presumptive presidential nominee because, as a Harvard lawyer, he shares the same "background" as others in the U.S. elite.
I'm pretty sure I've heard this People's Daily argument somewhere else before, maybe from Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

The other Other McCain

Just got an e-mail from Barry McCain of Mississippi (undoubtedly another cousin via our Carolina ancestors, Alexander and Hugh McCain) who is an expert in all things Ulster.

BounceWatch continues

Two weeks after the final Democratic primary, the Obama bounce still stubbornly fails to materialize. The poll numbers have stabilized, with a slender Obama lead in the latest Gallup tracking poll:
The presidential campaign may be entering a period of somnolence in these summer weeks prior to the late August and early September conventions in Denver and St. Paul. The candidates will be valiantly attempting to break into voters' consciousness by staging news events and announcements in the weeks ahead -- as was the case with the endorsement of Barack Obama by former vice president Al Gore in Michigan on Monday night -- but how much these types of events will affect voter preferences remains to be seen.
What is important here is what has not happened. The electorate's putative hunger for "change," which was the entire rationale of the Obama insurgency, has not been reflected in a post-primary surge of support toward the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Maybe the anticipated Obama tsunami has merely been delayed, and next week he'll open up an insuperable double-digit lead. But I'm begin to doubt it. Call it a hunch.

UPDATE: Linked by Allahpundit, who has more. By the way, notice the grim pessimism for which Allahpundit is renowned. The great thing about pessimism, as George Will observed, is that you're seldom disappointed, and sometimes pleasantly surprised.

UPDATE II: Latest state polls:
  • MN: Obama 47, McCain 46
  • KY: McCain 53, Obama 41
  • VA: Obama 45, McCain 44
  • NC: McCain 45, Obama 41
All of these results are good news for McCain, with the possible exception of Virginia:
  • Given the 93% total in Minnesota, I suspect that polls includes "leaners"; Obama's under 50% and McCain's neck-and-neck, so that's good news in an industrial Midwest state.
  • Obama didn't even bother to campaign in the Kentucky primary, and McCain looks safe there.
  • Obama actually made a campaign trip to North Carolina last week, but it seems to have had no impact; the state still looks like it will stay reliably Republican.
  • Virginia is a special case. It's been GOP presidential territory for decades, but the Virginia Republicans have stumbled badly the past few cycles, with some help from "Macaca." Given the Democratic trend in the state -- which is chiefly a function of a Yuppie influx in the DC suburbs of Northern Virginia -- for McCain to be roughly even at the outset could be considered good news. However, if Obama picks former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner as his running mate, it could turn into a real fight.
In other words, there is no evidence that Obama's nomination has remade the electoral landscape, or that there is any overwhelming surge toward the Democrats. As has been true in both of the past two elections, a rough equality in party strength at a national level -- which the general electorate split near 50-50 -- translates into an Electoral College advantage for the Republicans.

Why? Because Democratic voters are overwhelmingly concentrated in a few large states -- California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, etc. -- and the party's message has limited appeal outside those liberal bastions. Helped by Republican scandals and blunders, Democrats have had some success outside their core regions in recent years by running congressional and statewide candidates on centrist messages. There is, however, no evidence so far that Obama's presidential candidacy can follow on that success.

Obama is a liberal, and to the extent that he is perceived as a liberal, the chances are that he will suffer an electoral fate similar to previous liberal Democratic presidential candidates.

On Douthatism

Left-wing blogger Whiskey Fire calls me a "douchebag," but my magnanimous rule is: Call me what you want, just link me. So I don't harbor a grudge, and when I noticed he'd linked me again today -- once more, to call me a "douchebag" -- I spent a bit of time reading his blog and found we had something in common: We don't much care for Ross Douthat.

Douthat recently attempted a definition of conservatism:
A commitment to the defense of the particular habits, mores and institutions of the United States against those socioeconomic trends that threaten to undermine them, and those political movements (generally on the left, but sometimes on the right) that seek to change them radically in the pursuit of particular ideological goals.
As is Douthat's wont, this definition is nebulously philosophical, and Whiskey Fire is not impressed:
There is not much in Douthat's post to make me reconsider my contention that it's a mug's game to try to distinguish between Pure Conservatism and Conservatism as it has been actually practiced by actual people, especially since the rise of Movement Conservatism. . . .
Douthat wants to tell us that the end state of conservatism is some sort of post-ideological zen-like condition where "There are no final victories" and "'elegant, short-term' resolutions are often all that we should aim for." Hooray!
Such mockery is deserved. Douthat's conservatism is that of a bright young intellectual sitting around reading Russell Kirk, rather than of someone wading into the political fray to smite his enemies hip and thigh.

American conservatism, I would suggest, begins with the Calvinist insight that we are fallen creatures living in a fallen world and that human perfection is not an option. We cannot retreat to Eden, nor can we advance to Utopia. Ergo, the liberal (or as they would now have it, "progressive") project of legislating our way to "social justice" is a fool's errand.

The progressive project

William F. Buckley Jr. was once asked by the Oxford Union to debate a feminist -- I think it was Germaine Greer -- but he and his antagonist were unable to agree on the wording of the proposition to be debated. After a good deal of back-and-forth, a frustrated Buckley finally offered: "Resolved: Give 'em an inch, they'll take a mile."

This jest contained the kernel of a great truth. The progressive quest is always the same: "More." There is never a final demand that, once granted, will cause the progressives to say, "Well, that's it. Disband the coalition. Dissolve the advocacy groups. Dispense the foundation endowments as direct charity to the downtrodden."

Every concession gained for the progressive project expands the constituency of Welfare State clientele, who can then be mobilized to demand more concessions. "Give 'em an inch, they'll take a mile," you see?

Having begun in the late 1800s with industrial labor's demands for wage-and-hour regulation, etc., the progressive coalition gradually has been swollen by programmatic measures to include, inter alia, farmers, senior citizens, schoolteachers, artists, women, racial minorities, environmentalists, gays, illegal immigrants -- each with its own special-interest advocacy groups, each with existing policies and programs to defend, each with demands for new policies and programs. And there is never an end to the agitation, never a shortage of grievances whose redress requires new legislation, new expenditures, new regulation and new penalties for those who refuse to cooperate with the progressive agenda.

Order: Natural vs. artificial

Every time a meddlesome government tinkers with the fine-tuned machinery of an organic society -- every time a new bit of social engineering is implemented, a new tax imposed, new regulations promulgated -- there are unintended consequences. Government action preempting the ordinary processes of the private sphere is an artificial intrusion that has ramifications beyond the direct objectives of the action.

This is why, when liberals urge some new governmental program "for the children," conservatives risk the accusation of being "anti-child" in order to warn that any real gains obtained by such a program will likely be offset by losses elsewhere, for such has been the experience of decades. (If there is one thing that distinguishes liberalism from conservatism, it is that liberals seem incapable of learning from experience.)

One need only look at the socio-economic implosion of America's great cities in the half-century after World World as proof of how unintended consequences operate. (Fred Siegel's The Future Once Happened Here is an eye-opening chronicle of the failure of urban liberalism.) Not everything that contributed to the downward spiral of America's cities was the result of progressive policy, but over and over, the policies that progressives proposed as solutions turned out to aggravate the problems. Go to Detroit, see block after block of vacant lots where homes and businesses once stood, and behold the enlightened future to which progressivism promises to lead us.

By the repeated attempt to substitute governmental action for private initiative, imposing an artificial blueprint on the natural chaos of a free society, the progressive project steadily destroys those organic institutions which serve the necessary functions that an expanding government progressively preempts. Each new intervention then tends to entail further intervention. This slow-motion slide toward the Total State was what Friedrich Hayek warned against in The Road to Serfdom, and Hayek's warning is as true today -- nay, it is more true -- than it was some six decades ago, before the accretion of layers of progressivism unimagined by Hayek in 1944.

Douthat vs. Burke

Ross Douthat's attempt to distill conservatism into a philosophical statement fails because it is at once too ambitious and too timid. Douthat timidly refuses to say simply that conservatism is the negation of liberalism, for fear that this is indefensible as philosophy.

Only a Harvard boy could be constrained by such fears. I certainly don't care to debate philosophy, when I can see all around me the real-life failures of liberal policies. Conservatives always prefer real life over philosophical abstraction, a point made clear by Edmund Burke in his magnificent Reflections on the Revolution in France. If Burke was omitted from Douthat's syllabus at Harvard, or else he failed to comprehend on the first reading what Burke was saying, he ought to amend the deficiency.

Burke specifically derided the French philosophes, at a time when their prestige was near its zenith. He saw the French Revolution for what it was, an attempt to conform society to a philosophical plan, and saw likewise that this effort was doomed to become a nihilistic work of destruction. That Burke foresaw this at the very beginning of the Revolution, before the triumph of the Jacobins and the onset of the Terror, should encourage conservatives to emulate his skeptical stance toward philosophy, so-called.

To the extent that conservatism is a philosophy, it is a philosophy of opposition -- as Buckley said, standing athwart history crying "Stop!" Whatever ridicule conservatives absorb on account of this stance, we at least absolve ourselves of responsibility for the failures of the progressive project.

Whiskey Fire is correct to chastise Douthat for attempting to "distinguish between Pure Conservatism anf Conservatism as it has been actually practiced by actual people." Douthat's distinction reminds me of those leftist apologists for communism, who have always insisted that real communism is something different than the practices of actual communists like Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, and Castro.

If political projects endorsed by conservatives have failed, it is incumbent upon conservatives to admit and explain the failures, rather than attempting to elude responsibility by intellectual abstraction. If there are fake conservatives who have advanced unconservative projects under a false flag, then Douthat should name names, expose these impostors, and be specific about who and what he is abjuring, rather than retreating from politics into the false sanctuary of philosophical verities unconnected to any real-world policy.

Oh, and Whiskey Fire and I agree on something else: $12.50 for using five words of AP copy on a blog? "Bite me."

Obama's Mapquest

From my latest American Spectator article:
Democrats can be forgiven for panicking at reports that Team Obama is trying to figure out how to win in November without winning Florida. Or Ohio. Or even Pennsylvania.
Admittedly, it was an "alternative" scenario that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe discussed with activists Friday at the Capitol City brew pub in Washington.
"You have a lot of ways to get to 270," Plouffe said, according to the Associated Press. "Our goal is not to be reliant on one state on November 4th."
Plouffe's remark may have been nothing more than an expression of his candidate's "organize everywhere" philosophy.
Yet if it was more than that -- if his comments signaled a willingness of the Obama campaign to cede major battleground states to Arizona Sen. John McCain -- Democrats could be in for their third consecutive presidential disappointment this fall. ...
For Obama and his people, Clinton's bloody-minded persistence was unwelcome, yet another sign that she cared more about herself than the fate of the party this fall. But it also served, or should have served, as a blaring alarm about the scale of the challenge the presumptive nominee will confront in the general election.
"I certainly hope so," Clinton replies when I suggest this to her. . . .
It would be hard to overstate the private pessimism that Hillary and Bill Clinton feel about Obama's general-election prospects. Or the irritation they feel about the dismissive attitudes of some of his advisers toward her coalition, as evinced by the words of Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod, after the Pennsylvania primary: "The white working class has gone to the Republican nominee for many elections … This is not new that Democratic candidates don't rely solely on those votes."
Hillary's ready to say "I told you so." Team Obama ignores her.

Monday, June 16, 2008

On Hillary's exit

New York Magazine:
The Hillary I encounter a few minutes after Obama leaves the building [at the AIPAC summit June 4] is somber, prideful, dark-humored, aggrieved, confused -- and still high on the notion that she is leading an army, Napoleon in a navy pantsuit and gumball-size fake pearls. . . .
"The real lesson of the campaign is that neither my base nor his base alone is sufficient for a general election," she tells me. "That's important to stress, because now we need to look to November and how we put together a winning majority. We've gotta get this coalition to work together, because clearly the Republicans have been more successful at picking off the people who voted for me, and that's exactly who they’re going after again."
The astute reader will detect a dismissive, contemptuous tone in John Heileman's article (you should read the whole thing) and I suppose he's not alone in that attitude. Every time I showed up on the campaign trail to cover Hillary (in Greensburg, in Harrisburg, in Shepherdstown) I was struck by how hostile the press was toward her. Many of the reporters seemed to resent the fact that she wouldn't just quit and let Obama have the nomination.

I am not the type to throw around words like "misognynist," but thinking back on it, it does seem like some of the most hostile treatment Hillary got from the press -- I'm particularly thinking of one surly, bearded CBS reporter who showed up at Shepherdstown -- came from male reporters. And there was that bit with the manly Tim Russert.

It's as if those reporters doubted Hillary's power, or her willingness to wield power for her own purposes. As if they really didn't believe that Hillary would be willing to take her campaign all the way to Denver, or that she might be less than enthusiastic about rallying her disgruntled supporters to the Obama banner, knowing that it was only because of the media and the (disproportionately male) superdelegates that she'd been denied the nomination.

Heh. Just you wait, buckos. Hillary's got about $30 million in campaign debt, and I'm thinking she'll get a lot more contributions for her debt-relief fund if Obama loses than if he wins. Then she'll be the "I told you so" candidate, the ticket to ride for 2012, and she's going to make you sexist swine crawl. And the same goes for turncoat sellouts like Patti.

So go ahead and cheer for Obama, fellas. If you're not cheering on Nov. 5, just remember how you dissed Hillary. Hell hath no fury . . .

UPDATE: Jason Horowitz:
A former bundler to Hillary Clinton just called in to tell me that Barack Obama's selection of Patti Solis Doyle as chief of staff to the campaign's eventual vice presidential nominee is the "biggest f--- you I have ever seen in politics."
The donor, speaking on background, said that everyone in Clinton circles knows the two have hard feelings towards one another and haven't spoken since Clinton removed Solis Doyle as campaign manager, and that Clinton loyalists view her with deep suspicion and believe that she is shopping around a book deal and acted as a background source for an extremely harsh Vanity Fair piece about Bill Clinton.
Hey, Patti, try to see if you can finish this sentence: "Payback's a b----."

Update: Col. West & FL22

UPDATED & BUMPED: Just got off the phone with LTC West himself, who told me he'll be interviewed Tuesday on The Laura Ingraham Show.

While talking to the colonel, I learned, among other things, that he's an Atlanta native like me. We talked SEC football -- he's a University of Tennessee alum, while I'm a University of Alabama fan. He said he'd be happy to give me a "Roll Tide!" When I accused him of pandering, he added, "Except on the Third Saturday in October."

PREVIOUSLY: Just got off the phone with a campaign staffer for Col. Allen West, the Republican challenger to Rep. Ron Klein in Florida's 22nd District. The staffer said the campaign’s baseline poll last month showed Klein "surprisingly weak" and that, despite Col. West's relatively low name-recognition, there was a lot of excitement because he is "such a compelling candidate."

The district "went heavily for Hillary" in the Democratic primary, which the West campaign feels is a good omen for their candidate, because Clinton voters were generally more hawkish than Obama's. The district, which extends along the coast northward of Miami, has about 12 percent Jewish voters, many of whom are "uncomfortable" with Obama, the staffer said. (Unless I'm mistaken, El Rushbo lives in the 22nd District.)
While West's fundraising so far is no match for Klein's $2 million war chest, the staffer said the record-setting 2006 campaign -- where Klein and incumbent Republican Rep.
Clay Shaw spent more than $3 million combined -- was an anomaly. Usually it doesn't take that much to win FL22, and "we feel we will have enough to be competitive," the staffer said.

Asked whether it was a possibility that the John McCain campaign might make an appearance with Col. West, the staffer said probably not before October, if then -- especially since Team Obama is making noises about ceding Florida to McCain. If there is a fight for Florida, however, the West campaign may help boost McCain more than vice-versa, the staffer said, because Col. West is such an "inspirational" candidate.

BTW, the staffer said the West campaign is very much aware of, and grateful for, their support within the conservative blogosphere. To quote See-Dubya, "hint, hint."

PREVIOUSLY:

New Obama theme song



(Via Hot Air.) Libertarians would respond, "Roll it fat like a cigar, and vote for Barr."

'Whitey'? Who me?

I'm nicely tanned, thank you very much, and never lighter than a medium beige. Still, the Chicago Tribune says that if you're "dumb" enough to take umbrage at being called "whitey," then you "deserve to be insulted."

Beyond the irony of being lectured on what people should or should not take offense at by those who constantly remind us that giving “offense” is commensurate with “hate speech,” and as such, is worthy of special remedies . . . what is especially astounding and galling about his piece of Foucaultean dross is that it seems to take its own cynical argument seriously . . ."
"Foucaultean dross" -- that there's some mighty fancy talk, coming from a po' white cracker like Jeff.

Eat your heart out, Charlie

Charlie Sheen's ex-wife, Denise Richards, says she's once again ready for her close-up, Mr. Hefner:
Reality television star Denise Richards is considering shedding her clothes for Playboy magazine once again.
The former Bond girl, who posed for Hugh Hefner's magazine in 2004, is thinking about a return to the men's mag. . . .
"I think that my niche is as a sex symbol. I'm never going to be the girl next door, so why not play up my niche?"
Please, Denise. You don't really want us to think about your "niche," do you? We prefer to fondly remember your youthful niche, back when your niche was fresh and innocent, before Charlie got hold of it, ruined it and moved on to explore new niches.

How come, now that you've got a 37-year-old mother-of-two niche, you're sporting your aging niche all over the place? You're lucky even to pass the Ace of Spades HQ Test anymore. For crying out loud, you're nearly as old as Jennifer Aniston, and at least halfway to being Nora Desmond:

Latest Gallup: Obama 46%, McCain 42%

Still not the "bounce," but McCain remains flat:
The latest release, based on June 13-15 interviewing with over 2,600 registered voters nationwide, shows Obama regaining a statistically significant lead overMcCain. Over the weekend, the race was slightly closer, but Obama still held an advantage. . . .
The percentage with no opinion is down slightly to 13% in today's release, though this is still higher than it has been for most of the tracking to date.
If Team Obama has cause for concern, McCain's stagnant numbers (he's been below 46% in Gallup's dailytracking poll since June 1) should be equally concerning for Republicans.

UPDATE: Ace of Spades:
No matter how much the MSM wants to present Obama as a unifying figure who can and should garner 85% of the popular vote, the fact is he couldn't even manage a majority of the vote in the Democratic primary.
Also via AOSHQ, Kate Beckinsale doesn't want to show her booty in a nude scene. Which doesn't have a lot of political significance, but I thought you might be getting bored with all this poll stuff.
Meanwhile, via the WaPo, my beginning Electoral College map:



Just six states -- New York, California, Illinois, Maryland, Washington and Vermont -- gets Obama to 130, while McCain needs 16 states (Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, Indiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Utah, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas South Carolina) to get to 146, leaving 261 undecided. I suppose I could go ahead and call Georgia for McCain, but don't want to discount the Barr factor.

Team Obama: Over their heads

Troubling news for Democrats:

Barack Obama's campaign envisions a path to the presidency that could include Virginia, Georgia and several Rocky Mountain states, but not necessarily the pair of battlegrounds that decided the last two elections — Florida and Ohio.
In a private pitch late last week to donors and former supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe outlined several alternatives to reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House that runs counter to the conventional wisdom of recent elections.
When your nominee's campaign manager starts talking about ceding the two biggest swing states to the opposition, that's some seriously bad mojo. The PUMA (Party Unity, My A$$) crowd won't be happy about this.

Just in case Democrats need another reason to worry, Team Obama is headed by a 41-year-old college dropout and a 53-year-old ex-journalist. Hey, I'm a journalist, too, but at least I graduated college.

UPDATE: From an open letter to DNC Chairman Howard Dean from PUMAPac:

During the nomination process, Senator Obama and his campaign did not support counting all the votes in Michigan and Florida, did not accept a compromise plan that would have allowed new primaries in those states, and completely ignored the voters in states like Kentucky and West Virginia. . . .
In effect, the party’s nominee was selected and advanced by means of a series of inappropriate actions and inactions. As a result, many deeply devoted Democrats, who, like me, have proudly called ourselves Democrats over the years and who have supported Democratic candidates with our votes and donations, are greatly distressed by a process that has amounted to abandoning our party’s principles of full democratic participation and fair reflection. . . .
To which I add: Denver! Denver! Denver!

UPDATE II: Commentary's Jennifer Rubin suggests that readers try their own hand at the Electoral College map, and says of Plouffe's notion of winning without FL/OH:
It is not impossible. But it is really, really hard for Obama to get to 270 in a credible way without these states. . . .
Did the Democrats manage to get someone who transformed a Democratic sure-thing into a nail-biter?

Well, duh. Read the Spectator!

PREVIOUSLY:

The Great Blogger/AP Panic

Some bloggers appear to be panicking about the news that the Associated Press will develop a policy for blogger usage:
The Associated Press, one of the nation’s largest news organizations, said that it will, for the first time, attempt to define clear standards as to how much of its articles and broadcasts bloggers and Web sites can excerpt without infringing on The A.P.’s copyright. . . .
Last week, The A.P. took an unusually strict position against quotation of its work, sending a letter to the Drudge Retort asking it to remove seven items that contained quotations from A.P. articles ranging from 39 to 79 words.
Don't freak out, bloggers. Look, I just used 86 words from a New York Times story. Am I worried that their lawyers are going to swoop down on me? Not in the least.

If and when you violate someone's copyright, it is the copyright holder's obligation to inform you of the violation. They're not going to file suit without notice.

Furthermore, quoting and linking a news story is kind of like quoting and linking a fellow blogger. Don't cut the guts out of it -- that is, don't quote it so extensively that there's no reason for the reader to click through the link and read more.

Speaking of clicking through the link, in the New York Times story, the AP acknowledges it goofed by freaking out over such small excerpts:
On Saturday, The A.P. retreated. Jim Kennedy, vice president and strategy director of The A.P., said in an interview that the news organization had decided that its letter to the Drudge Retort was “heavy-handed” and that The A.P. was going to rethink its policies toward bloggers.
In the Internet age, the AP (like everyone else) is all about the hits. Having spent more than a year working as unofficial blog liaison at The Washington Times, I know that news organizations want their stories to be linked and discussed by bloggers -- it drives traffic. (The Politico has been very savvy about this.) But you can't be reaping all that blog buzz is people are afraid to quote two sentences from your story.

So keep linking and quoting, and don't sweat it. Until you get that letter telling you to cease and desist, you're in the clear.

Russert's 'simple questions'

Remembering Tim Russert's influence on the 2008 election in my latests article at The American Spectator:
Polls in late October showed Sen. Hillary Clinton comfortably leading the Democratic presidential field. For all his talk of "hope" and "change," Sen. Barack Obama was trailing Hillary by ten points in the most recent Iowa poll, and the "inevitability" argument was still on the side of the front-running former First Lady.
And then Tim Russert asked a simple question.
"Senator Clinton, Governor of New York Eliot Spitzer has proposed giving driver's licenses to illegal immigrants," the NBC host said in an Oct. 30 Democratic debate at Philadelphia's Drexel University. "You told the Nashua, New Hampshire editorial board it makes a lot of sense. Why does it make a lot of sense to give an illegal immigrant a driver's license?"
Those three sentences -- 46 words -- arguably transformed the entire campaign. . . .
By all means, read the whole thing.

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Atlas interviews Col. Allen West

Somehow, I missed this earlier, but Pamela Geller interviewed the FL22 candidate during CPAC:



No doubt, I was too busy recovering from the previous night's party.

PREVIOUSLY:
6/14: FL22: Col. West vs. "Rookie of the Year"

Father's Day in Hollywood

Or, actually, Vegas:
Britney Spears and Kevin Federline were both in Las Vegas Friday night, but didn't hang out.
Federline nabbed a Father of the Year Award at club Prive, while Spears chilled with her dad Jamie and an assistant at the Cinevegas party at Palms Place.
Spears, 26, sipped just water while sitting in a poolside cabana, according to an Usmagazine.com eyewitness. She departed at 12:20 a.m. Saturday morning, after spending about an hour and a half there.
Meanwhile, across town, Federline was shocked at his Father of the Year award.
"I'm surprised," Federline said when asked how it felt to win the title.
Federline, 30, hit up the club with a group of male pals — including divorce attorney Mark Vincent Kaplan — just before 1 a.m. Saturday morning.
Celebrating with your divorce attorney -- you stay classy, Kev. Meanwhile in Mississippi, Britney's baby sister/baby mama Jamie Lynn is sweating:
Jamie Lynn Spears, who's feeling pretty uncomfortable now that she's nearing the end of her pregnancy.
"She's feeling so large and just feeling all the discomfort that comes with it," a source close to Jamie Lynn tells E! News.
The pregnant teen has also been hit with some mild cramps for the past two days, our insider says.
"Sounds like some false labor pains," says the friend. "But nothing serious enough to go to the hospital over. They called her doctor, but everything's fine."
At least the pregnant teen has plenty of support...
Daddy Casey Aldridge is doing his best to make her feel better, rubbing her back when the cramps kick up, says our source. And her mom is at her side, pitching in with last-minute nursery decorating.
Those "cramps" are called Braxton-Hicks contractions, a/k/a "false labour," and are routine -- basically, the uterus doing a sort of "workout" to get ready to squeeze out the baby. And, oh yeah, the mother of these two fine young specimens is putting the final touches on her own memoir. Should be very inspirational, I'm sure.

Obama: Still no bounce

UPDATED & BUMPED: The latest Gallup report shows the contest narrowing still further, with Obama at 44% and McCain at 42%. Notice that the change is entirely a function of an Obama decline (from a three-day Gallup peak of 48% June 8-10) while McCain has been more or less steady around 42% for more than a week.

6/16: Greetings, Instapundit readers! There's more bad news for Democrats today.

PREVIOUSLY: Still a statistically insignificant 3-point margin for Barack Obama in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll. Immediately after Clinton's concession, Obama "bounced" from 46% to 48%, and has since faded, now down to 45%.
Obama's three percentage point advantage remains slightly smaller than his average lead in the days after Hillary Clinton let it be known that she was suspending her campaign on June 4. This suggests that while Obama experienced a small "bounce" from the attention he received, the possibility exists that the bounce will be short-lived and that the race will settle back down to the close margin that has characterized it for much of the last few months.
John McCain hasn't really been able to take advantage of this bored-with-Obama factor, probably because McCain's pretty doggone boring himself. The important thing, however, is that the pet notion of the Democratic/MSM elites -- that Americans are "hungry for change" and that Obama is the answer -- hasn't been borne out by an instant tsunami of voters jumping on the Obama bandwagon.

If Obama doesn't open up a major lead soon, if the contest remains neck-and-neck throughout the summer, the likelihood is that Obama will be a loser in November. Keep an eye on Democrats and their MSM friends for signs that they're starting to sweat.

As I said yesterday, if the McCain campaign were smart (a mighty big "if") they'd move quickly to push Obama in key swing states. A new "positive" ad for McCain, a total ad buy of $1 million or more -- a newsworthy amount -- and targeting just a few markets: Philadelphia and Harrisburg, PA; Orlando, Jacksonville and Tallahassee, FL; Cincinnati and Columbus, OH; Louisville, KY; and Charleston, WV. (The Philadelphia market bleeds into southern New Jersey; Cincinatti similarly bleeds into northern Kentucky.) Reinforce the ad buy with campaign visits by the candidate.

A million bucks is chump change in a presidential race. If, in the next couple of weeks, the McCain campaign could develop significant leads in Florida, Ohio, Kentucky and West Virginia -- all "swing" states won by Hillary in the Democratic primaries -- and at least make Pennsylvania look competitive, they'd have a major strategic advantage over Obama in the six-week runup to the conventions.

Alec Baldwin: 'I'd boff Hillary'

Via JWF, you can't make this stuff up:
In "30 Rock," now in its third season, the characters play a game in which you have to choose whether to boff, marry or kill a random choice of three people. I ask Baldwin to choose between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John McCain. Who would he boff, marry or kill?
"I'd boff Hillary," he says, totally straight-faced. So that means he believes in gay marriage?
"Well I'd have to because I wouldn't want to sleep with Barack. Barack would just be my long-term companion, as they say. I'd have to have sex with a woman because I'm not gay. I wouldn't want to have sex with Barack Obama or McCain. Obama's wife, perhaps. Anybody's wife - Bush's wife, McCain's wife, but no men - not even operating the video camera."
He pauses, weighing up all the options with due seriousness.
"So I'd boff Hillary, marry Obama . . . and I wouldn't want to kill McCain," he says contemplatively.
"Maybe I'd lead him out into the woods and leave him there, and I'd come back and tell you that I'd killed him. But I'd lie. I wouldn't really kill him. And knowing McCain, knowing his past in Vietnam, he'd make it back, he'd survive."
Here is Alec Baldwin "contemplatively" cussing out his "stupid, thoughtless" 11-year-old daughter:

Happy Father's Day!

Today I'm working on an article for Monday's American Spectator Online, but when I'm finished, my kids are taking me to see the new "Indiana Jones" movie.

Fatherhood is cool. My wife and I have six children, ranging in age from 5 to 19. What's so cool is that my wife does nearly all the hard stuff parenting-wise, including bearing and delivering the babies. Our second pregnancy was twin sons who weighed a combined 13 pounds, and our three youngest each weighed more than 10 pounds, so my wife is obviously a battle-hardened, decorated combat veteran of motherhood.

Fatherhood, by comparison, is a walk in the park. One of the things a Dad does is invent family-fun traditions. One McCain family-fun tradition is "Star Wars." I always liked the first trilogy (especially the 1977 original "Episode IV: A New Hope") and so when "Phantom Menace" came out in 1999 (my oldest daughter had just turned 10 and her twin brothers were not quite 7), we made a big deal of going to see it.

We re-watched the original on VHS, and I really hyped up the opening-day trip to see "Phantom Menace": "We're going to see 'Star Wars' on Friday!" My wife got in on it, using the trip as leverage with the kids: "If you don't clean up your room, you're not going to see 'Star Wars'!"

It was very much a cool-Dad activity, a family-fun tradition that was repeated with the two subsequent sequels. "Star Wars" became kind of a family in-joke. The kids would do the "Jedi mind trick" on me: "He doesn't have to eat his broccoli. These are not the droids you're looking for. Move along." I'd call the house and one of my sons would answer: "May I ask who's calling?" I'd say: "I am your father." To which the response would be: "Noooooooo!"

So, this Father's Day, everybody join in and sing the Ewok celebration song -- in barbershop quartet style:



Nub-nub!

Three makes a survey

When I was a young reporter, the "survey" feature was a dread assignment: Get comments on some subject from a small sampling of people in the community. Often, the editor's idea was to "localize" some national story ("No impact here, officials say") and the writer who got the assignment was going to spend the whole day hassling people on the phone in order to write a story that was, in essence, artificial.

Generally speaking, you wanted at least five different sources quoted in a survey feature, but in a pinch, three would do. So there was a little newsroom joke, "Three makes a survey."

David Paul Kuhn of the Politico does much better than that, getting six academic sources into his survey of presidential historians, who agree: John McCain is doomed in November:
"It is one of the worst political environments for the party in power since World War II," added Alan Abramowitz, a professor of public opinion and the presidency at Emory University. His forecasting model — which factors in gross domestic product, whether a party has completed two terms in the White House and net presidential approval rating — gives McCain about the same odds as Adlai Stevenson in 1952 and Carter in 1980 — both of whom were handily defeated in elections that returned the presidency to the previously out-of-power party. "It would be a pretty stunning upset if McCain won," Abramowitz said.
What Dr. Abramowitz's model ignores, naturally, is that both Stevenson and Carter were ineffective liberals, running against "biography" candidates. Stevenson's opponent was Gen. Dwight Eisenhower, commander in chief of Allied forces in Europe; Carter's opponent was Ronald Reagan, former movie star and successful two-term governor of California.

But, gee, is there anything else that might make 2008 kind of a different presidential election? Help me -- I'm drawing a blank here.

By the way, to register a note of protest, I reject as illegitimate the expertise implied in the phrase "presidential historian." This is obviously a racket cooked up by academics itching to be booked as guests on C-SPAN's "Washington Journal."

(Via Memeorandum.)

UPDATE: Just to mention something from my days at The Washington Times, "The Larry Sabato Rule."

Wes Pruden hated the way that the Washington Post always quoted academics as "expert" sources in political stories. Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia was the most common source of this kind in those stories with the authoritative "political analysts say" in the lede. So what became colloquially known in the Washington Times newsroom as "The Larry Sabato Rule" was a more or less comprehensive ban on such sources; certainly, you couldn't hang a major story on a few quotes from Sabato, as the Post was sometimes wont to do.

Wes Pruden got his share of criticism over the years, some of it deserved, but "The Larry Sabato Rule" illustrates the basic soundness of Wes's news instincts. It is far more informative, in a story about politics, to quote sources who are directly involved in the process -- candidates, campaign staffers, state party officials and so forth. Relying on the "expert" political science professor as a source is a lazy excuse for reporting.

Recto-cranial inversion

Just saw this Ross Douthat item on ANWR:
McCain's embrace of cap-and-trade didn't happen in a vacuum: It was an attempt, albeit a misguided one, to break with the heads-in-the-sand approach to energy and climate change that far too many conservatives have been taking for far too long. And the right-wing zeal for drilling in ANWR has been part of the problem, not part of the solution: It's licensed conservatives to posture about energy independence while sidestepping the global-warming debate entirely.
What "debate"? Like the "debate" over whether JFK was killed by the CIA or the Mob? To expect conservatives to participate in a "debate" over global warming is to seek debate between truth and error, between fact and falsehood. Such debate serves no good purpose. Belief in manmade global warming is (a) non-scientific, and (b) of no political consequence.

As to (a), John Coleman -- the meterologist who founded The Weather Channel -- has called global warming "the greatest scam in history," a fraud perpetrated by "dastardly scientists with environmental and political motives manipulated long term scientific data to create an illusion of rapid global warming."

There seems to be general agreement that global temperatures warmed in the 20th century, but there is every reason to believe that this is just a function of a normal interglacial pattern. The claim that this pattern was caused by human carbon-fuel use was cooked using theoretical computer models and faked data. More than that, it is easy to recognize the global warming scare as a gussied-up retread of Paul Ehrlich's "Population Bomb" nonsense, a piece of misanthropic Malthusian hype.

Now, as to (b), global warming has no political consequence because as an issue it appeals only to elites, who are few in number and are overwhelmingly liberal to begin with. Global warming functions only as an argument for liberal elites to do what they would do anyway: raise taxes and impose punitive regulations to cripple economic growth.

Despite the success of Al Gore in getting grade schools to force children to watch his stupid science-fiction film, there is not now, and never will be, a mass constituency demanding Kyoto-type regulation: "Please, government experts, we beg you: Strangle our economy! Force us to drive crappy, underpowered little cars! Make our lives miserable with unnecessary austerity! We want to huddle up shivering every winter!"

Support for drilling ANWR is not a "heads-in-the-sand approach." Support for global warming theory, however, is a heads-up-their-asses approach.