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Dave Weigel of the Washington Independent just showed up. He says he's guessing Hoffman to win by 11%-12%. Two tables away from the National Desk, Jimmy Vielkind of New York Observer and Liz Benjamin of the New York Daily News are chatting with Jeremy Peters from the New York Times. Just a few pictures to set the scene:
Note the rich wood paneling and chandeliers in the historic banquet room where I'll be poaching free buffet food later tonight. Life is good. 
A CNN reporter prepares for her historic broadcast. 
A hotel maintenance man removes a historic chandelier to prepare for the historic occasion. 
The National Desk, 7 p.m., in the historic A.P. Smith Restaurant.
This will be relatively close, methinks. I believe that the Hoff will win, but it will be by something like five points.
ReplyDeleteRecessed filter!
ReplyDeleteDude, it must be totally awesome to be there right now. I'm happy for you guys and thank you for working so hard, all of you, to bring the story out. I'm in AZ and people are talking bout it.
ReplyDeleteAre those Parliaments!!! And Corona?!!!! Get ye a lime for that amigo.
ReplyDeleteToo bad you gave up drinking. I bet an glass of Northeast Applejack would taste real good in an old hotel like that (it was a favorite of General Washington when he was campaigning--as in fighting the British not running for office--in New Jersey). In fact, I may have one myself tonight.
ReplyDeleteAnd you were the boots on the ground ahead of them all.
ReplyDeleteCongratulations!
The last poll I saw had Hoffman 41% Owens 36% Dede 6% and 18% undecided.
ReplyDeleteThe combined 24% Scozzafava and undecided vote will - of course - be determinative. I figure it this way - If people are still saying they are undecided the day before - they really really hate the two choices they have left. So... They will either 1) Not vote, or 2) Waste their vote with a protest for Dede - or - hold their nose, flip a coin and cancel themselves out splitting between Hoffman and Owens. Lets say the Dede protest vote drops to 4%, and that leaves 20% to split. If we assume these undecided to be mostly fiscal conservative, I expect that will skew the split to Hoffman. Even if they agree with Owen's socially moderate positions, it'll be too hard for them to pull the trigger for another rubber stamp vote for the reckless and destructive fiscal policies of this president and congress. Owens needed to distance himself from Obama and Pelosi, just like McCain needed to distance himself from Bush. He didn't. Biden's last minute rally didn't help - he most likely reinforced tying Owen to the insane administration spending.
So I say the 20% remaining undecided splits 11% to Hoffman and 9% to Owens, and my final prediction:
Hoffman (I) 52%
Owens (D) 44%
Scozzofava (R) 4%
Whatever happens, remember what datatechguy wrote right above.
ReplyDeleteLinked to at:
23 SKIDOO XI: VOTE EARLY AND OFTEN Edition