Palin for Senate: Bad idea

Allahpundit likes it, but I strongly disagree. Her hope as a presidential candidate in 2012 or 2016 is to present herself as an independent-minded conservative outsider. If John McCain has proved nothing else, he's proved that it's hard to be a Republican in the Senate and be conservative, and his "independence" usually meant taking un-conservative positions. "Outsider"? Oh, please.

Palin's best bet is to stick it out as governor, pushing hard on the fiscal conservative issues, cutting budgets, hiring freezes, etc. She probably shouldn't run for re-election in 2010, because to seek re-election, she might be required to pledge that she had no White House ambition in 2012. (Bush faced this in 1998 in Texas, and though he seemingly paid no price for breaking the pledge, Palin might not be so lucky.)

Palin doesn't need a Senate seat to command national attention from conservatives. She will get scores and hundreds of speaking invitations from GOP groups. If she did 50 of those in the next year, giving a standard speech emphasizing fiscal conservatism and energy policy, she'd do herself more good than she could by getting herself tied down in every issue that comes through the Senate. Then she can use 2010 to make campaign appearances on behalf of conservative Republican candidates.

Serving out her current term as governor in Alaska, she can spend the next two years picking her shots for disagreement with the Obama administration. She can speak out against "card check" and against tax increases, while continuing to urge the opening of ANWR to drilling. And if Obama actually does something that a conservative could praise, she can flaunt her non-partisanship by praising that specific policy. Once she's out of office in 2011, Palin can start spending time in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, while doing lots of talk radio, raising money, and collecting endorsements.

A seat in the Senate would actually put Palin in a worse position for 2012. There were those who urged Reagan to seek a Senate seat in the '70s, and he wisely decided against it. The "independent conservative outsider" candidate -- that's the ticket, and you can't get that ticket in the U.S. Senate.