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This is a big country, and the Libertarians may well get half a million votes. But out of 120 million or so cast, that's a drop in the bucket. In presidential politics, the Libertarian Party has established itself as nothing more than a party of protest.It's still five months to Election Day, and any "expert" who would quantify his predictions in such clear-cut declarative sentences at this point is a fool. Barr begins his campaign polling at 6%, which is a lot more than half-a-million votes.
BTW, some "expert" this guy is. He writes that "Barr . . . announced in December that he was leaving the GOP for the Libertarians" -- uh, no, Stu: Barr joined the LP in 2006.
I honestly can't remember, but at this time in the 1992 election cycle, what was Ross Perot polling?
ReplyDeleteOn my question of Perot and 1992, according to Wikipedia, in June Perot led the polls of the three candidates: "In June, Perot led the national public opinion polls with support from 39% of the voters (versus 31% for Bush and 25% for Clinton).[5](^ a b "The 1992 Campaign: On the Trail; Poll Gives Perot a Clear Lead", The New York Times. Retrieved on 2006-07-05.)"
ReplyDeleteThe election results after the polls closed some five months later saw Perot finish with less than 19%.
Winning a presidential election is a hugely monumental task. Clinton gained 18 points in five months to take the election. Perot lost about that same amount.
Can Barr make up 44 (FORTY FOUR) points in five months? Clinton had the backing of one of the two major parties, the MSM, a guaranteed debate participation, and the Democrat core on his side.
Barr has what, again? Is he even on all 50 state ballots? Even stretching the meaning of a political base or core to the breaking point, the biggest "base" he can claim is 6%.
With all of this you are disparaging another for predicting a Barr loss in the Fall? If Barr garners 10% of the vote he will have over performed.