Lott on Barr

Jeremy Lott assesses the possibilities for Bob Barr's Libertarian campaign:

Analysts understand that Barr could hurt Sen. John McCain in November. But they mostly miss the extent of the damage the former congressman could inflict. In the Republican primaries, John McCain showed himself to be vulnerable in the South, where the socially conservative former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee trounced him. Since Republicans usually clean up in the South, that was assumed to be a non-issue.
Barr is now perfectly positioned to plunge an electoral dagger into that soft underbelly, starting in Georgia. If Sen. Barack Obama can max out black votes and Barr can peel off some white conservatives and antiwar voters, McCain will lose several Southern states. McCain is vulnerable in key Western states as well, including Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and possibly Montana, as Barr peels off some leave-us-alone votes that Republicans can usually count on.

As someone said at Denver, the really damaging thing from the McCain campaign's perspective is that a Barr candidacy could force them to expend campaign resources in states that would otherwise be a walkover for the Republican.

The Democrats will come into the general-election campaign with a big fund-raising advantage. Barr is already at 8% in Georgia and around 6% nationwide. If his campaign catches fire and he starts hitting double digits in some states, Barr's candidacy could make it very difficult for the McCain campaign to figure out where to invest their comparatively limited resources. Of course, the Democrats would face similar questions, but this year, the Democrats can afford to make mistakes that the GOP can't.