Monday, November 3, 2008

Gallup: Obama 55%, McCain 44%

I'm thinking the popular vote margin will be less than that, but what's the difference? If it's 53%-47% . . . so what? You realize that any majority would make Barack Obama the first Democratic presidential candidate to get a majority of the popular vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976?

Note to GOP: Bald guys don't win elections.

UPDATE: Bill the Pundit blows what tiny tatters of credibility he had remaining:
What if the polls, for various reasons, are overstating Obama’s support by a couple points? And what if the late deciders break overwhelmingly against Obama, as they did in the Democratic primaries? McCain could then thread the Electoral College needle.
McCain would have to win every state where he now leads or is effectively even in the polls (including North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri). He’d have to take Florida and Ohio, where he’s about four points down but where operatives on the ground give him a pretty good shot. That gets him to 247 of the 270 votes needed.
McCain’s path to victory is then to snatch Pennsylvania (which gets him to 268), and win either Virginia, Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico (states where he trails by about four to seven points) — or New Hampshire, where he’s 10 points behind but twice won dramatic primary victories.
As for Pennsylvania, two recent polls have McCain closing to within four points. Pennsylvania is the state whose small-town residents were famously patronized by Obama as “bitter.” One of Pennsylvania’s Democratic congressmen, John Murtha, recently accused many of his western Pennsylvania constituents of being racist.
Perhaps Pennsylvanians will want to send a little message to the Democratic Party. And that could tip the election to McCain.
It’s an inside straight. But I’ve seen gamblers draw them.
This isn't an "inside straight," Kristol, it's fucking lunacy -- a pipe dream, the hallucinatory vision of a True Believer. It will not happen. And it is utter cruelty for you to foster such false hope.

1 comment:

  1. 'This isn't an "inside straight," Kristol, it's fucking lunacy -- a pipe dream, the hallucinatory vision of a True Believer. It will not happen. And it is utter cruelty for you to foster such false hope.'

    If you think Kristol is strange John, consider
    DeanDemocrat's diary
    over at Daily Kos. DeanDemorat discusses how McCain can get the electoral win, thus become president, if McCain can only win Virginia. It is a shorter route to McCains' presidency with DeanDemocrat's analysis than Bill Kristol's.

    I could comment this over at Free Republic but I won't because I don't want to be responsible for them all being on a suicide watch if Bill and Dean's analysis doesn't pan out.

    Agent Orange Peel

    ReplyDelete