Monday, November 3, 2008

Dept. of Wishful Thinking

Ed Morrissey offers this Electoral College map as his GOP razor-thin miracle victory scenario:

God bless ya, Ed, but that's just plain crazy. You've got Maverick winning Pennsylvania (RCP average Obama +7.6) while losing Virginia (RCP average Obama +4.3). You've got McCain a winner in Nevada (RCP average Obama +6.2) but losing Colorado (RCP average Obama +5.5). OK, maybe the polls are wrong, but why would they be so much more wrong in Nevada and Pennsylvania than in Colorado and Virginia?

Personally, I'd say it's a lead-pipe cinch that Obama wins three out of four of those states. There is a slight chance for McCain in Virginia, but I emphasize "slight." Pennsylvania? Gimme a break. Bush couldn't beat the charisma-challenged John Kerry in Pennsylvania four years ago, and Rick Santorum got an 18-point drubbing in '06. McCain hasn't led Obama in a Pennsylvania poll since April, and Obama's been outspending McCain 2-to-1 in advertising there.

If there is some undetected, inexplicable, last-minute shift that gives Pennsylvania to McCain, then he'll win Virginia, too. And monkeys will fly out of my butt.

A McCain victory this year wouldn't be just one miracle, it would require six miracles in different states. You're not merely hoping that one or two polls are slightly off, but hoping that all the polls are off by 5, 6, 7 points.

Well, don't worry. You can hope all you want, but you're not going to be hoping for long. By 10 p.m., the blue tsunami will have crashed ashore, and you can stop living in political fairy-tale land with the magical leprechaun Sean Hannity.

UPDATE: Oh, this is classic. For weeks, Karl Rove has been on Fox News spinning miracle-comeback scenarios but, when push comes to shove and his credibility as a prognosticator is at stake, his final Electoral College map says Obama 338, McCain 200. Rove's got Maverick losing Virginia and Pennsylvania, Colorado and Nevada, Florida and Ohio.

Given that Rove has an inside line with all the GOP operatives, he'd know about any secret internal polls showing a surprise upset, so the fact that his final bets are toward the high side for Obama means that the Republican insiders aren't expecting a miracle.


  1. I don't think Pennsylvania is such a longshot if McCain/Palin have been hammering the latest from Obama about coal.

    And surely you've seen how far off the polls were in 1980 and 2004?

  2. If McCain wins, it will literally be a miracle. And that miracle will come about because of prayer.

    Catholics have been praying the Rosary, fasting, going to Mass. Other Christians have been on their knees praying for mercy.

    At least two churches in my area had all-night vigils for the election; that's never happened before.

    We're not praying for a McCain victory, by the way! We're praying for God's mercy on us, we're praying for our nation to make a wise choice in this election, and we're praying for a return to a Culture of Life.

    This is interesting: McCain, whose adopted daughter lived in Mother Theresa's orphanage, is carrying both a Blessed Mother Theresa medal and a Miraculous Medal.

    Now, don't get me wrong: this is not superstitious; it's not about the medals having any power. But it does remind us of the spiritual nature of the battle unfolding in the political arena, and it reminds us to pray.

    No matter what the outcome of this election, we all need to pray more for our country. We're in rough shape.

    So whether there's a miracle or not, those prayers are most definitely not wasted. But I'm still hoping for a miracle!