Friday, May 30, 2008

Gallup Poll on McCain, Obama, Hillary

Very interesting, if you look at the matchups:
Obama 52%
Clinton 42%

Obama 46%
McCain 45%

Clinton 47%
McCain 45%
In other words, while Democrats prefer Obama by a 10-point margin, this preference makes no difference in the matchups between the two Democrats and the Republican nominee, John McCain.

Qu'est-ce que c'est? The answer is simple. More than 90% of black voters are Democrats; nearly all independent "swing" voters are white. Therefore, the strong preference of black voters for Obama weights the Democratic survey toward him. But white "swing" voters (independents, who were not polled for the Democratic preference survey) are more anti-Obama, thus rendering him no stronger than Hillary against the Republican.

Obama wins the blue-on-blue matchup, but when it comes down to the blue-on-red matchup, it's apparently a wash. I say "apparently," because the so-called "Bradley effect" may conceal the level of white voters' resistance to Obama.

And the Rev. Michael Fleger's rantings aren't likely to improve Obama's standing among independents.

1 comment:

  1. Yup, the Bradley effect gives the election to McCain.

    Let's hope we do even better: A limited governmet plurality - McCain plus Libertarian Barr over 50%.