Is ObamaCare a done deal?

That's what the Politico implies, citing Arkansas Democrat Blanche Lincoln as the magic 60th vote necessary to bring the measure to a floor vote. Meanwhile, a lefty at Firedoglake suggests that Harry Reid is "planning to sell out the public option," whatever that means. (Both via Memeorandum.)

There are good reasons why I don't maniacally follow every blip of news about the legislative progress of ObamaCare. The main reason is that it's policy, and policy is the province of specialists -- the wonks -- who are forever arguing the arcane details of proposed legislation with their fellow specialists.

Having never craved a reputation for wonkery, I seldom even bother to discuss such things, which are by their nature beyond my expertise. But I am a conservative, and conservatism is the belief that liberalism is wrong. Liberals support ObamaCare, and therefore I oppose it with every fiber of my being. The rest is just details.

The politics of ObamaCare are another matter. Politics is about, "Do we have enough votes?" The supporters of ObamaCare say they have enough votes to prevent a filibuster, but whether they've got enough votes to guarantee passage is another matter.

The wily political types whose judgment I trust will tell you that the Democrats are now facing a basic question: "Do we want a bill or do we want an issue?"

That is to say, if Democrats can round up enough votes to pass the bill, they thereby forfeit the issue: Nevermore can they go to voters promising some nebulously wonderful "reform." On the day ObamaCare passes into law -- should it pass -- all the glittering generalities about more coverage and reduced costs become void, and the old Democratic "promise 'em anything" tactic will be permanently obsolete in regard to healthcare.

Whether ObamaCare could ever be repealed, once it were signed into law, is an interesting question. But I remain skeptical that Democrats will be able to muster enough votes for passage, if Senate Republicans can maintain party unity in opposition. (A mighty big "if.")

ObamaCare is a political liability for Democrats. Buried in that ungodly mishmash of legislative detail are enough stinkbombs to fuel a thousand different attack ads next fall, and if the Democrats don't see the danger, they're marching blind to their own destruction.