Friday, June 27, 2008

Time poll: Obama 43%, McCain 38%

What's interesting here is the large (19%) undecided number:

Illinois Senator Barack Obama enters the General Election with a tight lead, 43% to 38%, over Arizona Senator John McCain, according to a new TIME Magazine poll of registered voters. The poll shows Obama gaining only a slight bounce from Hillary Clinton's departure from the campaign early this month.
When undecided voters leaning towards Obama and McCain are accounted for, the race narrows to a mere 4 percentage points, barely above the poll's 3.5% margin of error. Thirty percent of those who remain undecided said they lean towards McCain, 20% said they were leaning toward Obama with 46% citing no preference.

Ed Morrisey:

Obama has actually lost ground since February, which dovetails with his collapse in the final months of the Democratic primary. This tends to underscore the shakiness of the Obama phenomenon; it hasn’t translated into general-election enthusiasm, and the trends are going in the wrong direction.
Last night, a friend of the family -- who's not very political -- asked, "Who do you think will win?" I had to answer: "At this point, I don't have a clue." While the political environment generally favors Obama, that won't determine the outcome. The election will be decided by what happens over the next four months.

6/25: Gallup daily: Vindication?
6/24: Obama by 3? Or by 12?
6/24: BounceWatch Update
6/22: Gallup: No bounce

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