Monday, May 19, 2008

Obama overconfident?

Given that he drew 75,000 in Portland yesterday, Obama's probably feeling pretty confident of victory in tomorrow's Oregon primary. But is he too confident?
"I've been declared dead so many times, and luckily it's been premature, and I'm hoping it stays premature," Hillary said during a televised hour long town hall event Friday in Portland, Ore.
That Hillary had that hour to herself signaled the Obama campaign's confidence that they've got the nomination locked. Portland's KGW-TV had originally wanted to have a debate between the two candidates. When Obama refused the invitation, the station gave Clinton the whole hour.
Oregon has an unusual mail-in election system and, as of Friday, only 22 percent of voters had sent in their ballots for tomorrow's primary. When Obama ceded Hillary that hour of free TV time, polls showed him leading in Oregon by as many as 20 percentage points. However, an American Research Group poll taken late last week indicated the race might be tightening, with Obama leading Hillary by only a 50-45 margin.
Meanwhile, Clinton expects another West Virginia-sized landslide tomorrow in Kentucky, where polls show her leading by a whopping 30 percentage points. So even as Obama begins campaigning as the nominee-to-be, Clinton keeps winning primaries.
That's from my article today for The American Spectator and, please, read the whole thing.

The possibility of a Clinton win in Oregon is so remote as to be almost ridiculous, but I'm just superstitious enough to feel that you can jinx a sure thing by counting your chickens before they're hatched. So when I see Obama doing things like going to Iowa tomorrow to claim the nomination . . .

I don't know, maybe I've read too many Greek tragedies or something, but if that's not hubris, I've never seen hubris.


  1. Obamamama's hubris may have much more an effect on the November vote than the Dem Convention.

    Which is a good thing.

  2. Hubris? What's that??

  3. Let Florida and Michigan vote's count as US citizens they are and we'll see Hillary at the White House