Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday Super Updates

UPDATE 2:42 a.m: I think Mark Levin is too glum here:
There was an explicit anti-Romney vote in the south. ... Well, the heartland spoke last night and about the only message it sent was that, no matter what the talk radio guys say, they're not voting for a Mormon no way no how. The rationale for Romney continuing his campaign is that he's the conservative alternative to McCain. The message from Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee is that he will never be accepted as such by the conservatives' electoral base.
That's waayyy over-reading the data, Mr. Levin. Mitt's problem is that he's been tag-teamed by the Mack 'n' Huck show, sandbagged by Bill Kristol and the MSM's "increasingly likely" bullshit, and saddled with a team of mediocre communicators.

Mr. Levin, you're feeling discouraged because that's how the Elite Establishment wants you to feel. Don't give in.

Look at the Georgia results (still only 93% of precincts reporting, as we close in on 3 a.m.): You've got more than 10,000 morons in Georgia who voted for Rudy and Fred, to say nothing of more than 27,000 Paulistas. The Paulistas sure as heck don't want Senor Juan or the Huckster to win this.

Have hope, Mr. Levin -- it's a long way to Minneapolis.

UPDATE 1:30 a.m: Still 9% of precincts left to report in Georgia, and the fight for second place between McCain and Romney involves a margin of less than 12,000 votes. But I've got to get some sleep in order to get ready for CPAC.

Thanks for the link from Buzz Brockaway at Peach Pundit, as well as from Orit Sklar at Jews for Mitt, who reports:
While flipping channels, trying to escape the coverage, I wound up finding Tom DeLay commenting on the results. He believes we have a long way to go before the convention, specifically mentioning the states that are voting on March 4th -- Texas and Ohio -- and that John McCain won't be able to garner enough delegates. And, when asked about the most popular topic of the day -- James Dobson's comments -- DeLay had this to say about his former colleague, "McCain has done more harm to our party than anyone I know." And, he didn't stop there. "He's always been the anathema of the conservatives of the party." (Emphasis added.)
We'll have to wait and see what the delegate count after Tuesday's results. The strong showing by the Huckster could make things interesting. I remind you that it was Tony Blankley of The Washington Times who first made headlines by discussing the possibility of a brokered convention.

And to answer the commenter who wondered why Fulton County is taking so long to report its precincts: Fulton County is run by Democrats. It takes a long time to count the votes of dead Democrats, especially when they insist on voting in alphabetical order.

UPDATE 12:25 a.m: Just watched Bill Kristol on Fox pronouncing Senior Juan the "almost prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination" ... based on what?

McCain got 48% in Illinois, 51% in New York , 52% in Connecticut, and 56% in New Jersey -- all states that Democrats will carry easily in November. But in Florida he got only 36%, and today, he didn't even break 50% in Arizona.

These aren't the kind of numbers that indicate a strong Republican candidate. McCain is not a conservative, he will lose in November, and Kristol doesn't even seem to care.

UPDATE 12:05 a.m: Still 1/3 of precincts to be counted in Paulding County (a fast-growing suburb north of Douglas and west of Cobb) where so far Senior Juan is running third:
  • Huckabee 42.6%
  • Romney 28.1%
  • McCain 25.2%
The pattern you're seeing is that, over and over, McCain does worst in the most-Republican areas. But we knew that already.

UPDATE 11:45 p.m: A commenter thinks I'm wrong about the chance that Crazy Cousin John will finish third in Georgia. With 86% of precincts counted, the margin between McCain and Romney is still about 12,000 votes (out of close to 885,000 votes counted so far).

OK, let's wait and see. I took a good nap this afternoon, so I'll be up a while. But the 14% of precincts remaining to be counted are likely to be more than 14% of the vote. (If you don't understand the difference, I won't bother explaining.)

As of 11:45 p.m., with nearly all the rural Hucktard vote counted, there are still 43 precincts to be counted in Cobb County, still 13 precincts to be counted in Gwinnett, and still 194(!) precincts to be counted in Fulton County. We shall see ....

UPDATE 11:30 p.m: Douglas County just reported 25 of its 27 precincts and ... Huckster was strong in my hometown:
  • Huckabee 39.7%
  • Romney 28.3%
  • McCain 27.8%
Yet another third-place county for Senior Juan.

UPDATE 11: 15 p.m.: Look at the way Juan McCain is getting blown out in Gwinnett County:
  • Romney 35.6%
  • Huckabee 34.2%
  • McCain 26.6%
One reason: Illegal immigration. Senor Juan's amigos in Gwinnett County are dealing meth that American dopeheads won't deal.

UPDATE 11 p.m: Still nothing from Douglas County, and both Cobb and DeKalb counties have more than 40 precincts each yet to be counted.

Orit Sklar of Jews For Mitt tells me that the Associated Press just called Georgia for Huckabee, and that's probably right -- Huckabee's in front by 35,000 votes. But the battle for second place is what I'm watching now. Orit got to sit with Mrs. Romney today, but says the election results are giving her a migraine.

Thanks for the links from Jeremy Lott at The American Spectator and Bryan Preston at Hot Air.
UPDATE 10:50 p.m: Forsyth County just came in:
  • Romney 35.7%
  • Huckabee 32.7%
  • McCain 28.4%
This cuts the statewide gap between Romney and McCain below 11,000 votes.

UPDATE 10:25 p.m: Holy crap! As of right now, there are still zero precincts reporting in Republican powerhouse Forsyth County, an upscale exurb on Ga. 400. That could be huge. Will be back in a minute with demographics and political history of Forsyth.

Forsyth County, U.S. Census 2000:
  • Bachelor's degree or higher: 34.6%
  • Median household income: $68,890
It's upscale, like I said. The question is whether this will translate into votes for Romney, as it has in other upscale Atlanta suburban areas.

In 2006, Forsyth delivered nearly 33,000 votes for Gov. Sonny Perdue. As of 10:35 p.m., Romney's less than 12,000 votes behind John McCain statewide. Still nothing from Douglas County, either, and I also notice no results yet from Floyd County, where I lived from 1992-97.

UPDATE 10:10 p.m: Georgia counties where John McCain is currently running third: Cherokee, Coweta, Dawson, Fayette, Gwinnett, Henry, Rockdale. Except for Dawson County (which is in the mountains), all of these are suburbs or exurbs of Atlanta -- with lots more precincts to be counted. And there's still no numbers from Douglas County, where I grew up.

UPDATE 9:56 p.m: Allah's so gloomy, now he's even arguing with Michelle:
MM notes that McCain’s in trouble in a number of states he was supposed to win: Missouri, Georgia, Arizona, and Alabama (which he’s already supposedly lost). True enough — but it’s Huckabee, not Mitt, who’s knocking him off.
Dang it, Allah: Trust the Georgia boy to know Georgia. As of 9:54, with 56% of precincts reporting, and Romney's within 13,000 votes of overtaking McCain -- who looks likely to finish third in the state!

UPDATE 9:50 p.m: More county-by-county analysis ... As of 9:40 p.m., still nothing has been heard from Douglas County (the booming suburb west of Atlanta where I grew up) and that area's congressman, Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, endorsed Romney.

In Cherokee County, with 40 of 46 precincts reporting, it's Huckabee 37%, Romney 33%, McCain 25%. Very simple: McCain is unpopular where illegal immigration is unpopular.

UPDATE 9:40 p.m: If this trend continues, John McCain will finish third in Georgia. With 48% of precincts reporting, it's Huckabee leading, followed by McCain and Romney, but look at Cobb County where, with 108 of 177 precincts reporting, it's Romney 39%, McCain 30%, Huckabee 29%.

The rural precincts are mostly already county. Given Huckabee's dominance in rural areas and Romney's strength in Metro Atlanta, the trend we're seeing means that McCain will likely finish third, with Huckabee and Romney neck-and-neck for first place. What will be interesting is how the district-by-district delegates are allotted. Expect further updates ....

UPDATE 9:06 p.m: Look at Cherokee County (Canton/Woodstock -- northwest of Atlanta) where Huckabee campaigned Sunday. Huckabee's leading there, but McCain's running third.

UPDATE 9:02 p.m: Now, the first results from Cobb County come in. With 91 of 195 Cobb precincts reporting, it's Mitt 39%, McCain 31%, Huckabee 29%.

Note the way these big suburban districts are slowly shifting the statewide totals toward Romney: With 28% statewide precincts reporting, it's now Huckabee 36%, McCain 32%, Romney 29%. Hang on for a long night -- it's still too close to call.

UPDATE 8:48 p.m: Just doublechecked. No results yet from these Metro Atlanta suburban counties -- Forsyth, Cherokee, Cobb -- and only one precinct reporting in Paulding County. The results in Fayette County (posh suburb south of the Atlanta airport) and Gwinnett County (see below) are both showing Romney ahead. To repeat: Do not freak out.

UPDATE 8:38 p.m: As expected, Romney comes on strong in suburban Atlanta. With 56 of 165 precincts reporting in Gwinnett County (a GOP-heavy suburb east of Atlanta that's been hard-hit by Mexican meth gangs), it's Romney 37%, Huckabee 33%, McCain 28%. The question is whether the Metro Atlanta turnout for Romney will be strong enough to overcome the rural Hucktards.

UPDATE 8 p.m: With 1% of the official county-by-county vote reporting, it's mostly from mountain counties (e.g., Dade, Dawson) and South Georgia, while none of the Metro Atlanta vote is reporting. At this point, it's Huckabee (39%), McCain (37%) and Romney (21%), but that will change in Romney's favor. I repeat: Do not freak out.

UPDATE 7:50 p.m.: Malkin begins her night thread, and gives a link to the Georgia boy. Much obliged, ma'am. Hope to see you at CPAC.

(The photo is a little CPAC inside joke. Matthew Vadum of the Capital Research Center is my "running mate." Our platform? Be fabulous.)

UPDATE 7:35 p.m.: Don't let the early numbers in official county-by-county results freak you out. The early precincts reporting so far are all rural, which is why they're dominated by Hucktards (about 41%), McCain (about 37%), with relatively few for Romney (20%).

The Hucktards will dominate redneck districts. Romney's strength is in Metro Atlanta areas where more people are (a) under 70 and (b) have jobs and educations.

(Thanks for link, Dan Riehl.)

UPDATE 7:20 p.m.: Official county-by-county Georgia GOP primary results here.

BTW, the way the Associated Press reports exit poll data is pretty close to useless. We need charts of numbers with candidates names and percentages, on a state-by-state basis. Instead, the AP gives us this generic national crap.

UPDATE 7:10 p.m.: Polls close in Georgia -- "too close to call," which is good news. This means neither McCain nor Huck ran away with it in South Georgia. (But how come Allah don't link a Georgia homeboy for Georgia news?)

UPDATE 6:30 p.m.: Don Surber (who's gone over to the Dark Side), summarizes what happened in West Virginia:
Mittens had 41% of the vote, Huckster 33%, Mac 15% and Ron Paul 10%. Paul’s people left and Mac’s people basically went to the Huckster in an effort to shut out Mittens. This gave Huckster a majority of the votes cast on the second ballot, and he won the 18 delegates.
Not to "whine," Don, but the point is: Crazy Cousin John and the Huckster are tag-teaming as part of an anti-Romney plot that's been going on for months. Huck's only purpose for staying in the race at this point is to help McCain beat Romney. Maybe Huck's envy of Romney's wealth accounts for the personal venom in Huck's class-warfare rhetoric.

UPDATE 6:20 p.m.: Via Dan Riehl: "Independent" morons for Crazy Cousin John. Also: Hucktards hurting Romney.

UPDATE 6 p.m.: Still an hour until the polls close in Georgia.

UPDATE: Romney wins the Talk Radio Primary. Yeah: 20 million listeners can't be wrong.

Michelle Malkin's also doing the all-updates, all-the-time meme.

Did somebody say "meme"?

* * * * *
Crazy Cousin John joins forces with the Huckster to screw Mitt in West Virginia:

"Unfortunately, this is what Senator McCain's inside Washington ways look like: he cut a backroom deal with the tax-and-spend candidate he thought could best stop Governor Romney's campaign of conservative change. ...
"Sadly, Senator McCain cut a Washington backroom deal in a way that once again underscores his legacy of working against Republicans who are interested in championing conservative policies and rebuilding the party."

Via Riehl World View.) Sad, unfortunate -- that's what Republican Party officials will say if McCain gets the nomination and 1/4 of the party stays home (or votes for somebody else) in November.

More at Hot Air and Protein Wisdom.

Previously: Georgia Key for Romney.


  1. I think in the case of Mike Huckabee is religious bigotry that is driving him to oppose Mitt Romney. Mike Huckabee hates Mormons.

  2. Good stuff Mr McCain.

    Thanks for the detailed updates.

  3. Wow, could you be more wrong. Romeny is done, coming 3rd, unlikely to even break 30%. The voters have spoken and Mitt is rejected.

  4. I live in Georgia and I can't believe the Huck vote. Actually I can believe it, I'm just too embarrassed to admit it.
    I agree, with so many votes left in Fulton, it ain't over yet for 2nd!

  5. What is taking Fulton so long? Geez. I agree, Romney will get the silver.

  6. Your comments about the mediocre communicators on Mitt's team are spot on.

    We have been given far too many broad platitudes without enough specifics (such as the ones you suggest). Even my 13 year old son picked up on the lack of specificity during the debates.

    His Michigan win was very focused on specific proposals and he clearly benefited from that.

    There is a reason why Mitt is losing to McCain on the economy, and it's because of the poorly communicated message.

  7. Found you thanks to MM. You point out what others have pointed out. Juan has not shown himself capable of getting the conservative, especially the evangelical conservative vote. His sham speech tomorrow at CPAC will be nothing more or less than a sham. Hope my pals at CPAC watch out for the knife he'll shiv you with down the road, as he's been doing to conservatives for years. His "reaching across the aisle" is nothing but giving up our (not his) conservative principles to his liberal buddies!

    A caution to those who say they cannot vote for him, and will stay home: We need to keep & elect conservatives to maintain our ability to filibuster those ridiculous proposals the new Democrap president will put in front of congress! VOTE, folks! You don't have to vote for the presidential candidate, but you need to VOTE! McCain will lose, if he's the candidate.