Webb wants to have his progressive cake and eat his re-election, too

Brilliant foreshadowing of how multiple votes on the same bill provide political cover to a shifty Democrat:

Senator Webb has taken a number of tough votes in the last month-- always voting his conscience and without bowing to party politics. . . . During this debate, he has broken with his party six times, including four votes to prevent cuts in Medicare. At the same time, he appreciates that the need for health care reform is great. The status quo of our health care system burdens families and undermines the competitive position of American business."

In other words: Count Webb as a Democratic "yes" vote on cloture for ObamaCare, although his vote on final passage of the bill is purely a function of whether Harry Reid needs him to get to 51 (which is unlikely). Either way, if challenged about his votes in 2012, his votes on various amendments provide him with a chance to play it both ways.

Webb has shrewedly amassed a facing-both-ways record that can be used to fend off either a "progressive" primary challenger or a conservative Republican in the general election. The Conscience of a Centrist!

(Hat-tip: AmSpecBlog.)

Swing State Update

by Smitty

Quite an interesting survey of the political races:

• NY-23: Now that all the cool kids are endorsing Doug Hoffman, the floodgates are starting to open among the cognoscenti of the conservative movement: Rick Santorum endorsed, and so too did former presidential candidate Michael Steve Forbes. Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, who seems like he's still trying to decide whether to be establishment or movement in 2012, has his finger in the air but said he'll probably endorsed and gave a clue by saying he had issues with the way Scozzafava got the nomination.
• VA-Gov: It's grown exceedingly hard to see a path to victory for Creigh Deeds in Virginia's gubernatorial race. The polls aren't closing (if anything, the gap may be widening), and there's less than two weeks until election day. What's more, the highest echelons of the Democratic Party are now distancing themselves from Deeds, saying he rejected Barack Obama & Tim Kaine's "road map to victory." The Swing State Project is therefore changing its rating on this race from Lean R to Likely R. (D)
  Also, while the second-guessing has begun, PPP suggests that it's just a bad year for Dems and/or a strong opponent in Bob McDonnell: they found that if Tim Kaine had been able to run for re-election, he'd be losing too, 51-43. Nevertheless, 57% think that governors should be able to run for re-election in Virginia (which is the only state left that doesn't allow gubernatorial re-elections), with 35% opposed. Still, Kaine probably wouldn't be running anti-cap-and-trade ads as Deeds is doing in the state's southwest; with the public option already with the Deeds' bus treads all over it, it's one more reason for the Democratic base to lose interest in him.
• NJ-Gov: Two more polls split the difference between Jon Corzine and Chris Christie in New Jersey. Democracy Corps, who've usually been Corzine's most favorable pollster, finds a 3-point race, with Corzine at 42, Christie at 39, and Chris Daggett at 13. SurveyUSA, on the hand, has tended to lean toward Christie and continue to do so, giving him a 2-point lead, with Christie at 41, Corzine at 39, and Daggett at 19. Christie, for his part, is turning for help to the one Republican in New Jersey that most people still like: ex-Governor Tom Kean, who just cut a TV ad on Christie's behalf.

Virginia has McDonnell representing the conservatives. If NY-23 and/or NJ go blue, then the correct lesson for the GOP to draw is:

You can play to your base, or progressivism, but not both. If the latter, then the base sees no difference between the GOP and the Democrat candidate, and the GOP deserves to rot.

Our complete coverage of the NY23 special election

Race card played in Virginia?

John J. Miller at NRO:

Democrat Creigh Deeds, in yesterday's Virginia gubernatorial debate: "There's a hint of racism in some of the opposition to President Obama. That is crystal clear."
Republican Bob McDonnell disagreed: "I don't see it and I don't feel it. . . . I think these are ideas that are fought over public policy."

Miller also notes this intriguing news:

Black Entertainment Television network co-founder Sheila C. Johnson, who endorsed McDonnell in July, also rejected the idea that the anger seen in town hall rallies and conservative "tea parties" is race-based.
"I don't buy it at all. We've really got to stop doing this, stop bringing this up," said Johnson, who had been a major donor to Obama, Gov. and Democratic National Committee chairman Timothy M. Kaine and other Democrats through 2008.

Smitty and I were having a Twitter conversation about this year's Virginia campaign with another conservative activist, who like Smitty lives in Northern Virginia. If McDonnell wins, it will be despite the fumbling incompetence of his campaign team, who seem determined to repeat the disastrous performance turned in by Dick Wadhams in the spectacularly mismanaged George Allen catastrophe.

"Strategists," my left butt-cheek. These stupid Republican sons of bitches never call me . . .

Richmond Tea Party Report: Liberty 101

Among the Virginians I met at Saturday's "Liberty 101" event in Richmond was the charming Kayrn McDermott who files a report today at the Examiner:

[Richmond talk-radio czar] Doc Thompson . . . told the assembled throng how his political views were formulated after reading Ayn Rand’s tome ‘Atlas Shrugged’ whilst in his twenties. Thompson then went on to introduce over ten speakers . . .

. . . including some guy who gave "a fiery yet humorous address," so read the whole thing.

You meet the most fascinating people at these Tea Party events. The temperature was more than 90 degrees Saturday, so I went searching for ice water amid the vendor tents at the shade-deficient Chesterfield County Fairgrounds.

This thirsty quest led to a conversation with Patrick McSweeney of Restore the Founders' Vision, a Virginia-based grassroots organization, and Ben Marchi, Virginia state director of Americans For Prosperity.

Of course, my feelings were still sore that AFP's Erik Telford insulted me by leaving me out of next month's RightOnline National Conference in Pittsburgh with Michelle Malkin. When I mentioned Erik's name, Ben reminded me that Telford recently made No. 2 on Keith Olbermann's "Worst Person in the World" list. As usual, Olbermann gets the facts wrong -- Telford's No. 1.

That surge of registrations for RightOnline the past two days was caused by my friends signing up for a seminar Telford left off the Pittsburgh conference agenda: "I've Got T-Shirts Older Than You, Punk: Stacy McCain Explains Why He Just Beat the Crap Out of Erik Telford in the Sheraton Lobby." But I digress . . .

Among the folks attending the Richmond event was John Berlau, director of CEI's Center for Investors and Entrepreneurs and author of Eco-Freak: Environmentalism Is Hazardous to Your Health. Yesterday's blazing July sun was a health hazard, so John had slathered his face in sunscreen, but I told him, "Why bother with that stuff? If you get skin cancer, ObamaCare's got you covered!"

Gadsden Flags abounded at the event and the Second Amendment Sisters were out in force. Nothing like a woman packing heat to get a fellow's attention. And, yes, I finally got some ice water at the Protest Warrior tent, where I met the famous Concrete Bob of Free Republic.

Alas, as Pink Elephant Pundit Tabitha Hale informed me, At The Point of a Gun's Dave C. had a family emergency, so I didn't get a chance to meet him.

Glenn Reynolds has more on the Richmond "Liberty 101" event and other Tea Party events. Hey, professor, want to come up to Pittsburgh for the RightOnline conference? I noticed Telford left you off the schedule, too. If that punk's still conscious after I get through pounding on him, Jimmie Bise has called dibs on seconds, but you can have a shot if there's anything left when Jimmie gets done. Which isn't likely, but still possible.

Saturday in Richmond: Liberty 101

Got an e-mail this afternoon from Mickey White of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots, with details of Saturday's "Liberty 101" event at the Chesterfield County Fairgrounds, where I'll be speaking on the main stage, along with Edward Cline, Tito "The Builder" Munoz, Pat Webb, John Taylor, Jamie Radtke, Tabitha Hale, Benjamin Marchi, Dr. John Lewis and Adnan Barqawi.

There will also be educational seminars featuring Philip Van Cleave, Jeff Horgan, Ned Ryun, Donna Holt, John Taylor, Roger Pogge and Paul Saunders.

Don't miss this one, folks -- RSVP!

Why Terry McAuliffe lost

Look, I can't claim all the credit but . . .

Who needs opposition research? Just send me to hang out at your opponent's fund-raiser with a pink camera. I'm a one-man guilt-by-association smear. And then you can blame it all on the Brian Moran campaign. "No fingerprints," as they say, and I neither confirm nor deny . . .

Fisherville Mike did his part, too. A nod is as good as a wink to blind horse, eh? Nudge, nudge.

Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace

by Smitty

No, the title is not original with me. But my, my, the pointy headed operatives are out in force: "Five things the Virginia election results don't mean". Look at this bit of mental gymnastics:

Tuesday's three-way Virginia primary – between Creigh Deeds, Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran – and the general election to follow may not wind up saying much about anything except the specific candidates and issues involved. The same probably goes for New Jersey, where incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine trails Republican challenger Chris Christie in early polling. "Governors' races are about local personalities or local fucking road issues," one Democratic operative grumbled, on condition of anonymity so as not to contradict, in advance, the spin the party is guaranteed to be putting out in November if Virginia and New Jersey go blue.

So this jaded person doesn't really care, but intends to feign excitement on cue if we get another dose of Dem?
The article does conclude on an interesting note:

In private, Democrats concede that they are happy to see Republicans claiming the GOP comeback will begin this fall, but mostly because that provides a handy narrative if it doesn't. Republicans said more or less the same thing. "I expect that both parties have more than enough evidence to make the case that these state contests don’t have much bearing on national trends," said GOP strategist Kevin Madden. "But both parties also realize that the Washington media will take a magnifying glass to these contests and force a national assessment of the prospects of the Democrat and Republican parties as we head into 2010 mid-terms. Neither party likes it, and the party that wins may not entirely believe it, but both parties prepare for it."

It's pretty much do or die time for Conservatives. The GOP's continued treatment of politics as some sporting event plays to the Left's hand. The electorate is reduced to cheering for a team, instead of being "We the People".
Would that there was instead a focus on the Constitution, long-term questions like the debt, and a de-emphasis on personalities and toenails.
If the Tea Parties falter, if the gubernatorial races don't build momentum for the midterms, then we just need to switch concerns from toenails Nine Inch Nails:

Crackdown on illegals works

One of the most persistent excuses you hear to justify amnesty for illegal aliens is, "We can't deport 14 million people!" No, but a little bit of get-tough enforcement goes a long way, as one Virginia community has discovered:

Many illegal immigrants have left Prince William County or slid out of public view in the 17 months since the county's high-profile crackdown on them was proposed.
Student enrollment in the public schools' English as a Second Language program has dropped by several hundred students over the past year while increasing in surrounding jurisdictions, one sign that immigrants have left. fewer day laborers congregate outside the 7-Eleven on the corner of Route 1 and Prince William Parkway in Woodbridge. . . .
Indeed, Victor Rincon, manager of Michael's Restaurant -- adjacent to the 7-Eleven on Route 1 -- said the exodus of immigrants has practically decimated his business.
"My place has lost about 75 percent of the business," he said. "We have lost nearly everything. There's no immigrants anymore. They have gone to Maryland or another state."

An enforcement-oriented attitude tends to encourage "self-deportation," and if more effective interior enforcement were combined with more rigorous border security, the result would be a net outflow of illegals. No drastic or extreme measures are necessary. If only a few basic steps were taken, a substantial reduction of the illegal population could be achieved in a few years.

It's Kaine

The signs are waaaay too obvious:

"Kaine spent 20 minutes huddled in a backroom, where he said he was 'filming a little thing' for the Obama campaign," Tim Craig reports for The Washington Post. "The cameraman later followed Kaine to Henrico County, where he held a town-hall meeting for Obama. But campaign officials stress the 'filming' of Kaine has nothing to do with Obama's choice of a running mate."

You don't need a secret decoder ring to read this one, kids: When they send a camera crew to get footage for the candidate's convention biopic, it's a done deal.

Virginia is the new Ohio.

(Hat-tip: Hot Air. Cross-posted at AmSpecBlog.)

UPDATE: The big clue, of course, was when Kaine and Obama scheduled an invitation-only town hall event for Wednesday in Martinsville. Booman saw that as very suspicious.

"Invitation only" = "We want a hand-picked audience for the cameras."

I've already got calls in to Virginia sources.