Public Policy Polling started a brand-new NY-23 poll today and the early numbers show a blowout for Hoffman, but let's not get too excited here.
With about 200 interviews down we had Hoffman 45 Owens 26 Scozzafava 17...her withdrawal will just make it that much easier for HoffmanHere are your two Koh-I-Noor-sized grains of salt. First, the poll only includes 200 people, which is at least a third of what a solid poll should have. Second, the poll started before Scozzafava suspended her campaign and it's going to take a day or so for that news to propagate.
With Scozzafava out of the race, her 17-20 percent are going to be up for grabs and there's no good way to know right now how many will go to Hoffman and how many will roll over to Hoffman. Also, there is still a sizable number of undecided voters. If you add up the early PPP numbers, you come out with 12 percent undecided, who could break one way, the other, or both.
Stacy also just reported to me that a source has said that the NRA is going to flip its endorsement to Hoffman as well. That's not anywhere close to confirmed, but I'd expect it to be so in the relatively near future. Early Scozzafava endorsers like Gingrich and the NRA don't have anything to gain by letting their endorsement simply sit in a dead campaign, so I figure that the NRA will endorse Hoffman sometime today, if not tomorrow. Of course, if the confirmation does come through, you'll see it here.
Also, stay tuned for a tidbit from Stacy later today about the power of Hoffman with the local constabulary. I won't spoil the story, but it involves a certain carload of journalists going 87 MPH in a 65 MPH zone.
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