Sunday, November 2, 2008

Grim forecast for Tuesday

Allahpundit breaks down the electoral battlegrounds and observes:
If McCain wins Indiana and Virginia, he survives and advances to the next round against Ohio and North Carolina. If he wins both of those, he moves on to the eastern regional championship in Pennsylvania and Florida. And if he wins both of those, he heads west for the Final Six [CO, NM, AZ, ND, NV, MT].
This is part of why I said it was over when Team Maverick pulled the plug in Michigan. With the Kwame Kilpatrick scandal in Detroit and an unpopular Democratic governor, there were "secular" reasons why Michigan could have been in play for the Republican. This was especially true in terms of Palin's "drill, baby, drill" energy push -- high gas prices have killed the U.S. auto industry's SUV/truck sales.

Once McCain pulled out of that "blue" battleground, it freed up Obama's campaign to pour resources into other states. People who don't live in the battleground states simply don't realize how Team Obama has buried McCain in TV ads. Here are the totals for Oct. 21-28 with ratios for each state:

VIRGINIA (3.8 to 1)
Obama $2,450,000, McCain $637,000

INDIANA (3.7 to 1)
Obama $1,248,000, McCain $336,000

COLORADO (3.6 to 1)
Obama $858,000, McCain $237,000

FLORIDA (3.3 t0 1)
Obama $4,615,000, McCain $1,441,000

OHIO (2.6 to 1)
Obama $1,984,000, McCain $753,000

MISSOURI (2.5 to 1)
Obama $1,105,000, McCain $437,000

NEVADA (2.4 to 1)
Obama $850,000, McCain $357,000

Obama $1,094,000, McCain $537,000

Obama $2,742,000, McCain $1,388,000

Ask anybody in politics what it feels like to be on the receiving end of a 2-to-1 ad ratio. You're getting busted in the balls every day. And 3-to-1? Fuggedaboutit. Even if McCain could match Obama dollar-for-dollar in Colorado, it would have been a nail-biter, but when he's getting buried 3.6-to-1 on TV ads? There is zero hope McCain will win there. Zero. And once you put Colorado in the Democratic column (along with Iowa), the Electoral College math just doesn't work for the Republican. You can sit and conjure up hypothetical miracle scenarios, but without Colorado, you can't realistically figure how McCain gets to 270.

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