Saturday, July 12, 2008

Obama +9% in North Carolina??

Hard to believe these Zogby numbers:
North Carolina
Obama 47%
McCain 38%
Barr 4%
Other polls have consistently shown McCain leading in North Carolina. Four years ago, Bush got 56% in North Carolina, and yet Zogby has McCain is at 38%? This is a bit puzzling, perhaps partly explained by the fact that Zogby has blacks at 33% of the sample, whereas blacks were 26% in the 2004 exit poll.

Elsewhere, Zogby has Colorado neck-and-neck (Obama 40%, McCain 38%, Barr 8%), but Obama significantly ahead in Virginia (Obama 44%, McCain 39%, Barr 5%). If Zogby's numbers are correct here, then these are two states where Bob Barr's Libertarian candidacy could have a real impact.

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