End of the Conservative Era

Why has such a feeling of hopelessness overtaken the Republican Party? Just look at the latest Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports (via CQ Moneyline):

HOUSE -- The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) finished May with $47.2 million cash on hand. Their GOP counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) finished May with $6.7 million cash on hand.
Net Democrat advantage: $40.5 million

SENATE -- The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) finished May with $37.6 million cash on hand. Their GOP counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) finished May with $21.6 million cash on hand.
Net Democrat advantage: $16 million

Republican campaign committees are staring down the barrel of a combined deficit of more than $56 million dollars, relative to the Democrats. Not only is it unlikely the Republicans can close that gap, but the Democrats -- leveraging their early-money advantage -- are actually likely to widen the gap as the campaign moves toward fall.

As bad as 2006 was for Republicans (when they suffered a net loss of 6 Senate seats and 30 House seats), 2008 is likely to be at least as bad. Further shrinkage of the Republican congressional minority this November would make it less probable that the GOP will be able to retake either house in 2010. Without any realistic prospect of regaining a majority any time in the foreseeable future, Republican fundraising will wither still more.

Unlike the 1980s, when Republicans in Congress in partnership with conservative Democrats formed a working majority coalition to push through much of President Reagan's agenda, the current Democrats are so liberal that the GOP minority is now powerless to shape legislation in the House. In the Senate, the threat of a Republican filibuster will cease to be credible if their numbers slip below 44 (a likely outcome in November), because liberal Republicans like Susan Collins and Olympia Snow will vote with the Democrats.

Whether or not John McCain wins the White House, the Republican Party is on the verge of irrelevancy at the congressional level. And considering that McCain won the GOP nomination over the strenuous opposition of Republican conservatives, one might well say that the conservative era that began with Ronald Reagan's election in 1980 is now effectively over.