Damon Runyon, pundit

From my latest American Spectator article:

Perhaps the best description of what happened to Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign can be found in the words of Sky Masterson, the protagonist of "Guys and Dolls":
"One of these days . . . a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider."
There's no such thing as a sure thing, the crafty crapshooter was telling his buddy Nathan Detroit, and if Obama ends up with an ear full of cider instead of the Democratic nomination, he'll have only himself to blame. . . .

Read the whole thing. It's a column that actually began with a couple of thoughts I was pondering here yesterday, namely (a) Obama has been his own worst enemy, and (b) what a dumb idea it was for him to take that vacation to the Virgin Islands in March.

That vacation was a signal of overconfidence, which made me think of the line from "Guys and Dolls," and the column started from there.

Politics is a competition, and thus is like gambling or sports. You can't slack up or get cocky when you're winning. Obama had the chance to finish Hillary off in Pennsylvania, and blew it.

How many townhall events could he have done in the three days he spent on St. Thomas? It might have made the difference of a few thousand more votes that would have at least kept Team Clinton from claiming a "double-digit" victory.

Or think about Obama's visit to San Francisco on April 6 when he made the "bitter" comments that hurt him so bad. What the hell was he doing in Frisco? The California primary was over and done with. Why was there a need for him to go out there, buttering up those wealthy donors, when he was already so far ahead in fundraising anyway? Barely two weeks away from the Pennsylvania primary, and his staff thinks Obama needs to be in California?

Obama and his team got cocky. They were like a football team that goes into halftime with a two-touchdown lead, starts thinking ahead to the playoffs and then -- wham! -- the other team stages a second-half comeback.

Or, as Runyon would say, "an ear full of cider."

UPDATED: Team Clinton considers the "nuclear option."