Super Tuesday Super Updates

UPDATE 2:42 a.m: I think Mark Levin is too glum here:

There was an explicit anti-Romney vote in the south. ... Well, the heartland spoke last night and about the only message it sent was that, no matter what the talk radio guys say, they're not voting for a Mormon no way no how. The rationale for Romney continuing his campaign is that he's the conservative alternative to McCain. The message from Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee is that he will never be accepted as such by the conservatives' electoral base.

That's waayyy over-reading the data, Mr. Levin. Mitt's problem is that he's been tag-teamed by the Mack 'n' Huck show, sandbagged by Bill Kristol and the MSM's "increasingly likely" bullshit, and saddled with a team of mediocre communicators.

Mr. Levin, you're feeling discouraged because that's how the Elite Establishment wants you to feel. Don't give in.

Look at the Georgia results (still only 93% of precincts reporting, as we close in on 3 a.m.): You've got more than 10,000 morons in Georgia who voted for Rudy and Fred, to say nothing of more than 27,000 Paulistas. The Paulistas sure as heck don't want Senor Juan or the Huckster to win this.

Have hope, Mr. Levin -- it's a long way to Minneapolis.

UPDATE 1:30 a.m: Still 9% of precincts left to report in Georgia, and the fight for second place between McCain and Romney involves a margin of less than 12,000 votes. But I've got to get some sleep in order to get ready for CPAC.

Thanks for the link from Buzz Brockaway at Peach Pundit, as well as from Orit Sklar at Jews for Mitt, who reports:

While flipping channels, trying to escape the coverage, I wound up finding Tom DeLay commenting on the results. He believes we have a long way to go before the convention, specifically mentioning the states that are voting on March 4th -- Texas and Ohio -- and that John McCain won't be able to garner enough delegates. And, when asked about the most popular topic of the day -- James Dobson's comments -- DeLay had this to say about his former colleague, "McCain has done more harm to our party than anyone I know." And, he didn't stop there. "He's always been the anathema of the conservatives of the party." (Emphasis added.)

We'll have to wait and see what the delegate count after Tuesday's results. The strong showing by the Huckster could make things interesting. I remind you that it was Tony Blankley of The Washington Times who first made headlines by discussing the possibility of a brokered convention.

And to answer the commenter who wondered why Fulton County is taking so long to report its precincts: Fulton County is run by Democrats. It takes a long time to count the votes of dead Democrats, especially when they insist on voting in alphabetical order.

UPDATE 12:25 a.m: Just watched Bill Kristol on Fox pronouncing Senior Juan the "almost prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination" ... based on what?

McCain got 48% in Illinois, 51% in New York , 52% in Connecticut, and 56% in New Jersey -- all states that Democrats will carry easily in November. But in Florida he got only 36%, and today, he didn't even break 50% in Arizona.

These aren't the kind of numbers that indicate a strong Republican candidate. McCain is not a conservative, he will lose in November, and Kristol doesn't even seem to care.

Previously:

• Kristol: McCain opponents hate America
• The Decider has decided

UPDATE 12:05 a.m: Still 1/3 of precincts to be counted in Paulding County (a fast-growing suburb north of Douglas and west of Cobb) where so far Senior Juan is running third:

• Huckabee 42.6%
• Romney 28.1%
• McCain 25.2%

The pattern you're seeing is that, over and over, McCain does worst in the most-Republican areas. But we knew that already.

UPDATE 11:45 p.m: A commenter thinks I'm wrong about the chance that Crazy Cousin John will finish third in Georgia. With 86% of precincts counted, the margin between McCain and Romney is still about 12,000 votes (out of close to 885,000 votes counted so far).

OK, let's wait and see. I took a good nap this afternoon, so I'll be up a while. But the 14% of precincts remaining to be counted are likely to be more than 14% of the vote. (If you don't understand the difference, I won't bother explaining.)

As of 11:45 p.m., with nearly all the rural Hucktard vote counted, there are still 43 precincts to be counted in Cobb County, still 13 precincts to be counted in Gwinnett, and still 194(!) precincts to be counted in Fulton County. We shall see ....

UPDATE 11:30 p.m: Douglas County just reported 25 of its 27 precincts and ... Huckster was strong in my hometown:

• Huckabee 39.7%
• Romney 28.3%
• McCain 27.8%

Yet another third-place county for Senior Juan.

UPDATE 11: 15 p.m.: Look at the way Juan McCain is getting blown out in Gwinnett County:

• Romney 35.6%
• Huckabee 34.2%
• McCain 26.6%

One reason: Illegal immigration. Senor Juan's amigos in Gwinnett County are dealing meth that American dopeheads won't deal.

UPDATE 11 p.m: Still nothing from Douglas County, and both Cobb and DeKalb counties have more than 40 precincts each yet to be counted.

Orit Sklar of Jews For Mitt tells me that the Associated Press just called Georgia for Huckabee, and that's probably right -- Huckabee's in front by 35,000 votes. But the battle for second place is what I'm watching now. Orit got to sit with Mrs. Romney today, but says the election results are giving her a migraine.

Thanks for the links from Jeremy Lott at The American Spectator and Bryan Preston at Hot Air.
UPDATE 10:50 p.m: Forsyth County just came in:

• Romney 35.7%
• Huckabee 32.7%
• McCain 28.4%

This cuts the statewide gap between Romney and McCain below 11,000 votes.

UPDATE 10:25 p.m: Holy crap! As of right now, there are still zero precincts reporting in Republican powerhouse Forsyth County, an upscale exurb on Ga. 400. That could be huge. Will be back in a minute with demographics and political history of Forsyth.

Forsyth County, U.S. Census 2000:

• Bachelor's degree or higher: 34.6%
• Median household income: $68,890

It's upscale, like I said. The question is whether this will translate into votes for Romney, as it has in other upscale Atlanta suburban areas.

In 2006, Forsyth delivered nearly 33,000 votes for Gov. Sonny Perdue. As of 10:35 p.m., Romney's less than 12,000 votes behind John McCain statewide. Still nothing from Douglas County, either, and I also notice no results yet from Floyd County, where I lived from 1992-97.

UPDATE 10:10 p.m: Georgia counties where John McCain is currently running third: Cherokee, Coweta, Dawson, Fayette, Gwinnett, Henry, Rockdale. Except for Dawson County (which is in the mountains), all of these are suburbs or exurbs of Atlanta -- with lots more precincts to be counted. And there's still no numbers from Douglas County, where I grew up.

UPDATE 9:56 p.m: Allah's so gloomy, now he's even arguing with Michelle:

MM notes that McCain’s in trouble in a number of states he was supposed to win: Missouri, Georgia, Arizona, and Alabama (which he’s already supposedly lost). True enough — but it’s Huckabee, not Mitt, who’s knocking him off.

Dang it, Allah: Trust the Georgia boy to know Georgia. As of 9:54, with 56% of precincts reporting, and Romney's within 13,000 votes of overtaking McCain -- who looks likely to finish third in the state!

UPDATE 9:50 p.m: More county-by-county analysis ... As of 9:40 p.m., still nothing has been heard from Douglas County (the booming suburb west of Atlanta where I grew up) and that area's congressman, Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, endorsed Romney.

In Cherokee County, with 40 of 46 precincts reporting, it's Huckabee 37%, Romney 33%, McCain 25%. Very simple: McCain is unpopular where illegal immigration is unpopular.

UPDATE 9:40 p.m: If this trend continues, John McCain will finish third in Georgia. With 48% of precincts reporting, it's Huckabee leading, followed by McCain and Romney, but look at Cobb County where, with 108 of 177 precincts reporting, it's Romney 39%, McCain 30%, Huckabee 29%.

The rural precincts are mostly already county. Given Huckabee's dominance in rural areas and Romney's strength in Metro Atlanta, the trend we're seeing means that McCain will likely finish third, with Huckabee and Romney neck-and-neck for first place. What will be interesting is how the district-by-district delegates are allotted. Expect further updates ....

UPDATE 9:06 p.m: Look at Cherokee County (Canton/Woodstock -- northwest of Atlanta) where Huckabee campaigned Sunday. Huckabee's leading there, but McCain's running third.

UPDATE 9:02 p.m: Now, the first results from Cobb County come in. With 91 of 195 Cobb precincts reporting, it's Mitt 39%, McCain 31%, Huckabee 29%.

Note the way these big suburban districts are slowly shifting the statewide totals toward Romney: With 28% statewide precincts reporting, it's now Huckabee 36%, McCain 32%, Romney 29%. Hang on for a long night -- it's still too close to call.

UPDATE 8:48 p.m: Just doublechecked. No results yet from these Metro Atlanta suburban counties -- Forsyth, Cherokee, Cobb -- and only one precinct reporting in Paulding County. The results in Fayette County (posh suburb south of the Atlanta airport) and Gwinnett County (see below) are both showing Romney ahead. To repeat: Do not freak out.

UPDATE 8:38 p.m: As expected, Romney comes on strong in suburban Atlanta. With 56 of 165 precincts reporting in Gwinnett County (a GOP-heavy suburb east of Atlanta that's been hard-hit by Mexican meth gangs), it's Romney 37%, Huckabee 33%, McCain 28%. The question is whether the Metro Atlanta turnout for Romney will be strong enough to overcome the rural Hucktards.

UPDATE 8 p.m: With 1% of the official county-by-county vote reporting, it's mostly from mountain counties (e.g., Dade, Dawson) and South Georgia, while none of the Metro Atlanta vote is reporting. At this point, it's Huckabee (39%), McCain (37%) and Romney (21%), but that will change in Romney's favor. I repeat: Do not freak out.

UPDATE 7:50 p.m.: Malkin begins her night thread, and gives a link to the Georgia boy. Much obliged, ma'am. Hope to see you at CPAC.

(The photo is a little CPAC inside joke. Matthew Vadum of the Capital Research Center is my "running mate." Our platform? Be fabulous.)

UPDATE 7:35 p.m.: Don't let the early numbers in official county-by-county results freak you out. The early precincts reporting so far are all rural, which is why they're dominated by Hucktards (about 41%), McCain (about 37%), with relatively few for Romney (20%).

The Hucktards will dominate redneck districts. Romney's strength is in Metro Atlanta areas where more people are (a) under 70 and (b) have jobs and educations.

(Thanks for link, Dan Riehl.)

UPDATE 7:20 p.m.: Official county-by-county Georgia GOP primary results here.

BTW, the way the Associated Press reports exit poll data is pretty close to useless. We need charts of numbers with candidates names and percentages, on a state-by-state basis. Instead, the AP gives us this generic national crap.

UPDATE 7:10 p.m.: Polls close in Georgia -- "too close to call," which is good news. This means neither McCain nor Huck ran away with it in South Georgia. (But how come Allah don't link a Georgia homeboy for Georgia news?)

UPDATE 6:30 p.m.: Don Surber (who's gone over to the Dark Side), summarizes what happened in West Virginia:

Mittens had 41% of the vote, Huckster 33%, Mac 15% and Ron Paul 10%. Paul’s people left and Mac’s people basically went to the Huckster in an effort to shut out Mittens. This gave Huckster a majority of the votes cast on the second ballot, and he won the 18 delegates.

Not to "whine," Don, but the point is: Crazy Cousin John and the Huckster are tag-teaming as part of an anti-Romney plot that's been going on for months. Huck's only purpose for staying in the race at this point is to help McCain beat Romney. Maybe Huck's envy of Romney's wealth accounts for the personal venom in Huck's class-warfare rhetoric.

UPDATE 6:20 p.m.: Via Dan Riehl: "Independent" morons for Crazy Cousin John. Also: Hucktards hurting Romney.

UPDATE 6 p.m.: Still an hour until the polls close in Georgia.

UPDATE: Romney wins the Talk Radio Primary. Yeah: 20 million listeners can't be wrong.

Michelle Malkin's also doing the all-updates, all-the-time meme.

Did somebody say "meme"?

* * * * *

Crazy Cousin John joins forces with the Huckster to screw Mitt in West Virginia:

"Unfortunately, this is what Senator McCain's inside Washington ways look like: he cut a backroom deal with the tax-and-spend candidate he thought could best stop Governor Romney's campaign of conservative change. ...
"Sadly, Senator McCain cut a Washington backroom deal in a way that once again underscores his legacy of working against Republicans who are interested in championing conservative policies and rebuilding the party."

Via Riehl World View.) Sad, unfortunate -- that's what Republican Party officials will say if McCain gets the nomination and 1/4 of the party stays home (or votes for somebody else) in November.

More at Hot Air and Protein Wisdom.

Previously: Georgia Key for Romney.

Georgia key for Romney

Further updates here.

UPDATE 1:25 p.m. More analysis at Protein Wisdom and Liberty Pundit.

UPDATE 1 p.m.: Just got off the phone with veteran Georgia political observer Phil Kent.

"I think it's going to be close here with Romney and McCain," Phil said, citing the final Insider Advantage poll showing a three-way neck-and-neck race. Georgia "could be the upset that's going to buck this McCain trend."
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In case you haven't seen this (via Ace of Spades):

UPDATE 11:40 a.m.: Michael Barone analyzes Georgia:

The first state to close is Georgia, at 7 p.m. . . . Republicans have a close three-way race here. Romney needs to win the high-income Atlanta suburbs (I'll be looking at the Cobb, Fulton, Forsyth, and Cherokee County returns); McCain needs to stay even with or ahead of Mike Huckabee in south Georgia, as he did in most of South Carolina.

Barone's analysis very much tracks what I was getting from the Romney volunteers in Georgia last night: "If it was up to Metro Atlanta, Romney would win, but ...."

But, keeping Romney competitive in the more rural parts of the state depends on (a) overcoming anti-Mormon bias, and (b) getting evangelicals who support Huckabee to understand that a vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain (whom the evangelicals hate).

* * * * *

UPDATE: Super Tuesday roundups at Michelle Malkin and Hot Air, and Jim Geraghty handicaps Super Tuesday at NRO. Linked at Riehl World View -- thanks, Dan.

MORE UPDATES: The Dole-to-Rush letter is panned by Malkin. Notice what Rush says:

On his radio show Monday Limbaugh said that if McCain is elected president, he would destroy the Republican party by working with Democrats to pass liberal legislation.
"This is how he's going to get even with Republicans for defeating him in South Carolina in 2000," Limbaugh said. "The Republican Congress will effectively be neutered." ...
Limbaugh also suggested conservatives should be wary of media endorsements of McCain. McCain has won the endorsement of the New York Times.
"It was just six months ago that if a candidate was endorsed by the liberal media we were instantly suspicious of them," Limbaugh said.
Now he said, "we've got drive-by media organizations having orgasms about McCain."

The sounds very much like what I've said:

John McCain wants to lead something other than the Republican Party that elected Ronald Reagan to the White House 1981. He is in defiant opposition to the Republican Party that captured Congress in 1994. His campaign is one of unlimited personal vengeance against the Republican Party that rejected him in 2000.
John McCain is out to destroy the Republican Party as we have known it, and he certainly needs no advice on how to do that, given how much he's already done.

* * * * *

Georgia looks like the state to watch in the Super Tuesday battle for the Republican presidential nomination.

While Romney is surging in California, and McCain is comfortably ahead in winner-take-all New York, polls in Georgia show it too close to call, reports from my friends at Team Romney indicate a tough fight in a competitive three-way race for 72 delegates in Georgia -- the third-largest Super Tuesday state and the largest of the states with a proportional distribution of delegates.

The problem for Romney in Georgia is simple: Some voters are too stupid to understand that, at this point, a vote for Huckabee is effectively a vote for John McCain.

"They don't get it," a very tired Romney volunteer told me of her encounters with Huckabee voters. "They hate McCain, but they're voting for Huckabee, and it's the same thing."

Key endorsements may swing some undecided voters and "soft" Huckabee supporters toward Romney. Sadie Fields of the Georgia Christian Alliance came out for Romney on Monday, an important endorsement in a state where Romney's volunteers say they're encountering a lot of anti-Mormon bias.

Georgians for Romney lists the Romney endorsers in Georgia's House delegation: Rep. Jack Kingston, Rep. Phil Gingrey, Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, and Rep. Tom Price. As one of my Georgia sources told me with scarcely concealed disgust, the state's two Republican senators (Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isaakson) both endorsed McCain. "They both ran as conservatives, but as soon as they got up there, they both supported McCain on amnesty -- until they found out the voters were against it, then they changed their minds."

Romney held a huge rally at Georgia Tech on Monday:

Romney is running neck-and-neck with John McCain for the Georgia presidential primary, with Mike Huckabee trailing in third.
Romney said he expects to do well here Tuesday and in California and in many of the other 20-plus states where ballots will be cast.
"Georgia is going to have a big role in this," Romney said. "I keep hearing from my friends here that Georgia is going to come my way."

Here's CNN video from the Georgia Tech rally:

(Hat-tip: Jews for Mitt.) According to Peach Pundit, popular Atlanta radio host Herman Cain introduced Romney at the rally.

In the end, the story in Georgia comes down to those stiff-necked, thick-headed Hucktards, with polls continuing to show the Huckster at around 25%, despite his having zero chance of winning the nomination.

"I haven't had a full night's sleep since Thursday," a weary Romney volunteer told me Monday night, explaining she'd just had a 30-minute nap. "It's unbelieveable."

The Romney volunteer had joined a group of Evangelicals For Mitt supporters who went Sunday to Woodstock First Baptist -- one of the state's largest megachurches in a Cherokee County suburb north of Atlanta -- where the Huckster preached a "Jesus wants you to vote for me" sermon:

“I'm not here today to campaign,” said Huckabee, a former Baptist pastor during his visit to Sunday service.
But as Huckabee gave his testimonial at the First Baptist Church of Woodstock, there was little doubt about the conservative voters, who support him.

Attempts at "outreach" to the Baptists of Woodstock by the Evangelicals For Mitt crew were ... not exactly received with blessings and thanksgiving, let's put it that way.

The Romney campaign unleashed a last-minute round of robo-calls in Georgia on Monday. At Peach Pundit, former Fredhead Chris Farris endorsed Romney. (Remember, more than 200,000 Georgians have already cast their ballots in early voting.)

We'll keep an eye out on Georgia and update ...