Showing posts with label Larry Summers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Larry Summers. Show all posts

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Who's behind the anti-Bernanke stories?

Like this one in the New York Times:
In Washington and on Wall Street, it would be a surprise if President Obama did not nominate Mr. Bernanke for a second term, even though he is a Republican and was appointed by President George W. Bush.
But the White House has remained silent. And despite Mr. Bernanke’s credibility in financial circles, both he and the Fed as an institution have come under political fire from lawmakers in both parties over the handling of particular bailouts and the scope of the Fed’s power. . . .
While the White House keeps mum about Mr. Bernanke’s future, the leading Democratic candidates to replace him include Lawrence H. Summers, director of the National Economic Council; Janet L. Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; Alan S. Blinder, a Princeton economist and former Fed vice chairman; and Roger Ferguson, another former Fed vice chairman. . . .
You can read the whole thing, but what arouses my curiosity is why the editors of the New York Times felt the need to run this story at this time.

Stories like this don't "just happen" in Washington. Somebody covets the guy's job, either for themselves or one of their allies. The fact that Larry Summers' name is at the top of the list of candidates to replace Bernanke might make Summers the chief suspect.

On the other hand, Summers has enemies in the White House, and the idea may be to kill two birds with one stone: Get Bernanke out of the Fed, and replace him with Summers so as to remove Summers from the Economic Council.

So I suspect Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (or his friends) of pushing the anti-Bernanke meme to the press. Geithner obviously views Summers and Bernanke as rivals to his influence in the Obama administration's economic policy shop.

Oh, and all the praise for Bernanke in the Times story? Overdone and premature. When you cut the rate to zero, it's easy to look like a genius -- for a while. But what happens when the next wave of foreclosures and bank failures hits? You can't cut the rate lower. At some point, you reach the limits of monetarianism, and we've been at the limit for months now.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Economy: Up, Down or Sideways?

Just got back this morning from Atlanta, where the economy sucks. The ripple effects of the housing meltdown are being felt especially hard in my hometown, which is national headquarters for Home Depot, a regional hub of banking and transportation, and site of a large number of undeveloped developments.

When I got back, my first task was to prepare the Monday morning business report for NTCNews.com. Mixed signals from the markets, but there was this weird New York Times story about "underlying tensions" among Obama's economic advisers:
By all accounts, much of the tension derives from the president’s choice of the brilliant but sometimes supercilious Mr. Summers to be the director of the National Economic Council, making him the policy impresario of the team. The widespread assumption, from Washington to Wall Street, was that the job would be Mr. Summers's way station until the president could name him chairman of the Federal Reserve when Ben S. Bernanke’s term expires early next year.
But Mr. Bernanke’s aggressive response to the crisis has so improved his reputation that people close to Mr. Obama increasingly suggest the president could well reappoint him in the interests of financial stability -- just as Presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton retained Fed chiefs who had been picked by predecessors of the other party.
As for Mr. Summers, even as top administration officials acknowledge the occasional strains among economic advisers, they say the president is thrilled with the job Mr. Summers is doing in his current post.
Read the whole thing. Basically, it's a round-robin of anonymous leakers trying to get rid of Larry Summers. And I'm appalled that Bernanke's stock has actually risen in the past four months. I didn't like Bernanke when he was Bush's Fed chairman, and nothing he's done during Obama's tenure has improved my opinion of him.

That the anti-Summers cabal is praising Bernanke for being "aggressive" reminds me of my private-sector economist buddy who, two weeks ago, shook his head and said, "They're trying to re-inflate the bubble!"

It appears to me that Team Obama (which includes the MSM) is playing an expectations game with the economy, trying to convince us that a recovery is underway. Unemployment is nearing double digits, the bond market is signaling higher interest rates, and given what I saw during my Atlanta trip, I'm deeply skeptical about the near-term economic prospects.

However, those are merely my opinions, and the numbers are whatever the numbers are. The Nikei was up this morning, which usually signals a good day for U.S. stocks, so don't let my gloom spoil your day. Maybe I'm just suffering the opposite of "irrational exuberance."

UPDATE: Charles Lemos at MyDD says Summers " is viewed with suspicion on the progressive left" and describes him as "a right-of-center economist," which is to say he's not Paul Krugman or Robert Reich. Exactly what does an economist have to do before he's not "viewed with suspicion on the progressive left"? Maybe if Larry Summers decapitated a few bankers on YouTube . . .

UPDATE II: Jehuda says:
Looks like the Left is going to need a bigger Sorosphere.
Heh.