Nice analysis

Political Lizard looks at the post-convention itinerary and sees evidence that Obama's in trouble:

If Obama can't close the deal in Michigan and Pennsylvania he will be unable to continue campaigning in Western States. If he pulls out of Colorado or New Mexico they will stay red. If Obama must stay in high cost areas like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania; McCain will be able to stay on the offensive and turn States like Minnesota and Wisconsin. . . .
In a Democratic year there should be no reason for Obama to be camped out in reliable Democratic States like Michigan and Pennsylvania. . . . It looks as if the 50 State campaign promise is already history.

Correct. In fact, keep an eye on the 18 "battleground states" named by Obama strategist David Plouffe in his June Power Point presentation and watch the next couple of weeks as more state polls start stacking up. You can scratch Georgia, North Carolina and Missouri off the list -- McCain and Palin will campaign Monday in Missouri, and that will likely be the last time during the campaign. Alaska was always a Plouffe pipe dream, and it just evaporated.

McCain led in Indiana all through August, so I think you can scratch off the list. New Hampshire loves McCain, and went for Hillary in the primary, so I'm betting that will turn red soon. A CNN poll of Colorado taken during the Democratic Convention showed McCain ahead, so Obama has a hard roe to hoe there.

McCain still being close in Michigan and Pennsylvania is very good news for the GOP, and presents a possible Electoral College backstop against Obama making Virginia competitive. I said "competitive," but barring a big overall shift to Obama, I still think McCain wins Virginia by 10 points.

All of which is to say that, at this point, Team Obama's idea of a 50-state strategy that substantially revises the 2004 map has been a spectacular flop.