Thursday, August 7, 2008

Poll Watch

Gallup: Obama 46%, McCain 43%
Rasmussen: Obama 47%, McCain 46%

Rasmussen has a note about undecided voters:
If the race for the White House remains close, the final decision may be rest in the hands of voters who are not yet paying attention to the campaign. Each night, Rasmussen Reports asks survey participants to let us know how closely they are following the election using a 9-point scale. People answering "9" say they are following the race "on a daily basis." . . .
[A]mong the undecided voters, just 19% say they're paying that much attention. On that nine-point scale, most undecided voters say their interest in the campaign is a "6" or less.
This goes to a basic point: Elections always boil down to independent "swing" voters, who pay less attention to politics -- who are less informed -- than partisans.

UPDATE: Rasmussen also reports the influence of TV news:
Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Fox News viewers say they are likely to vote for John McCain, while those who watch CNN and MSNBC plan to support Barack Obama in November by more than two to one.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 65% of CNN voters plan to vote for the Democratic candidate versus 26% who intend to go for the Republican. Similarly, MSNBC watchers plan to vote for Obama over McCain 63% to 30%. ...
Among those who get their information on the presidential campaign from local television, the new survey finds that the amount of time one watches impacts how they plan to vote. Those who watch local news every day support Obama over McCain 52% to 42%. But for those who say they watch several days a week but not every day, it’s McCain over Obama 50% to 43%.
Not surprising.

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