Tsunami warning

A tidal wave of Hope:

Four large states McCain once seemed well-positioned to win -- Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida -- have in recent weeks shifted toward Obama. If Obama were to win those four states -- a scenario that would represent a remarkable turn of events -- he would likely surpass 350 electoral votes. Under almost any feasible scenario, McCain cannot win the presidency if he loses any of those four states. And if Obama actually captured all four states, it would almost certainly signal a strong electoral tide that would likely sweep the Southwestern swing states -- Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada -- not to mention battlegrounds from New Hampshire to Iowa to Missouri.

North Carolina still strikes me as an unlikely pickup for Obama, but the fact that he's even within single digits there (Bush won North Carolina by 12 points in 2004) indicates how bad the Maverick meltdown has become since Sept. 24.

(Cross-posted at AmSpecBlog.)