Hubris Watch update

UPDATED & BUMPED: Obama doesn't have time to visit troops at U.S. bases in Germany. No wonder Joe Klein's getting nervous.

And, oh yeah, Obama's lead in today's Gallup daily tracking poll is 4 points less than what it was 3 days ago. And as Allah notes, Team McCain has slammed Team Obama for dancing in the end zone before they've gotten past midfield.

FLASHBACK: Has Team Obama lost it? -- the June 28 post in which I first expressed my shock that Hopey was planning this European excursion:

Pennsylvania? Ohio? Florida? No, forget about the stupid morons in those silly swing states -- let's campaign in foreign countries where there aren't even any eligible voters!

If this trip proves to be a mistake -- the fatal turning point at which everything starts going south for Obama -- I stand ready to stake my claim as first in line to say, "I told you so."

PREVIOUSLY: Team Obama is already measuring the drapes in the Oval Office, and picking out their dresses for the inaugural ball. Meanwhile a trio of liberal pundits explains why history proves that it's safe to ignore the fact that His Hopefulnness still hasn't gotten a poll bounce:

It is no exaggeration to say that the political environment this year is one of the worst for a party in the White House in the past sixty years. You have to go all the way back to 1952 to find an election involving the combination of an unpopular president, an unpopular war, and an economy teetering on the brink of recession.
Barack Obama is not a national hero like Dwight Eisenhower, and George Bush is no Harry Truman. But if history is any guide, and absent a dramatic change in election fundamentals or an utter collapse of the Obama candidacy, John McCain is likely to suffer the same fate as Adlai Stevenson.

Hmmm. I wonder if these liberal pundits have talked to any Obama organizers in Pennsylvania lately. (I have. To say that they've encountered some "unease with Obama" might be an understatement.) This liberal trio is guilty of trend-mongering: The assumption that general political trends render actual campaigns and actual candidates irrelevant to election outcomes.

In 1995, it was widely assumed that Bill Clinton had no hope of re-election. Conservatives told themselve, "Any Republican could beat Clinton!" But "any Republican" wasn't on the ballot in November 1996; Bob Dole was.

But please, Obamaphiles, don't let me rain on your (inaugural) parade.