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Talk of tightening polls in Oregon erupted everywhere Monday. Whether that's a real trend or a statistical illusion, James Antle points to a Michael Barone column from Friday arguing that Obama can't clinch tonight anyway:As this is written, RealClearpolitics.com has Obama at 1,891 delegates. Current polling gives him 58 percent of the two-candidate vote in Oregon and 34 percent of the two-candidate vote in Kentucky. That should give him, under the proportional representation rules, about 17 delegates in Kentucky and about 30 in Oregon. That puts him at 1,938. That means he needs to add 87 superdelegates between Friday and Tuesday night.Furthermore, Barone notes that Hillary's big win in Kentucky will be announced many hours before Oregon finishes counting its mail-in ballots, which might not be until early Wednesday morning, Eastern time.
So Obama's going to Iowa on Tuesday night . . . for what? He can't claim the nomination, and last-minute undecided Oregon voters might be put off by the weekend announcement that Obama wouldn't spend Election Night in the state he was supposedly counting on to put him over the top.
A quick roundup of Election Day news:
- Hillary emphasizes her lead in the popular vote, and declares "This is nowhere near over."
- Karl Rove says polls and the electoral map show Hillary stronger than Obama against John McCain.
- A nationwide poll of Democratic voters shows a strong preference for Obama over Hillary.
- A Hillary donor tries to buy a couple of superdelegates.
- Warren Buffett and Robert Byrd endorse Obama.
Politics is a game, just like football. You cheer for your team and it's always more fun if you bet on it. The difference is that when your team loses in football, the opponent doesn't get to raise your taxes or invade foreign countries.Think about it.
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