Thursday, May 1, 2008

Mo' mo' for Hillary?

More momentum from Rasmussen:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that Barack Obama’s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright, has had a significant impact on the race for the White House. The news is not good for Obama. . . .
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the Wright impact is especially evident. Clinton now has a statistically insignificant two-point edge over Obama, 46% to 44%. However, that represents a ten-point swing since Wright’s press conference. Before Pastor Wright appeared at the National Press Club, Obama led Clinton by eight points. . . .
In Indiana, Clinton leads Obama by five points. In North Carolina Obama leads. Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama continues to be the favorite for the Democratic nomination, but expectations have slipped significantly in recent days.
Via Hot Air, where Allahpundit discusses what might be called the "Anybody But Clinton" (ABC) Movement:
[A] late Hillary surge might force superdelegates out of the woodwork and, paradoxically, into declaring for Obama. They're worried about the race dragging on and the better she does, the more likely that is to happen. Coming out for [Obama] when he's in trouble is thus a way to blunt her momentum, essentially telling her, "Unless you win every remaining primary 80/20 he's going to be the nominee, so you might as well drop out."
Tuesday's primary results may put a stop to this kind of shenanigans, however. The three most recent polls in Indiana show Hillary ahead by margins between 5% and 9%, while Obama's lead in North Carolina has either dwindled or, according to Matt Towery's Insider Advantage poll, disappeared altogether.

A solid Indiana win by Hillary -- piled on top of her Ohio and Pennsylvania wins -- reinforces her argument about "electability" in swing states. She's unlikely to win North Carolina outright, but just wait until the TV talking heads get a look at the exit polls there; expect massive black-white polarization.

All of this means that Tuesday's results will be interpreted by the media as a referendum on Wright, and by this time next week, the "electability" question will be all over TV.

UPDATE: Meanwhile, a Connecticut superdelegate is coming out for Hillary today, while three Illinois superdelegates declare for Obama.

Looking ahead, Obama faces a problem in the primary schedule, with West Virginia on May 13 and Kentucky on May 20. Lot of bitter gun-clingers in those states, so within three weeks, the media narrative will be about Obama's losing streak.

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