NY23: Travel Notes

Lord, I was born a rambling man,
Trying to make a living
And doing the best I can . . .
-- Allman Brothers Band

Other things being equal, whenever I travel, I prefer to stay at a Hampton Inn. They're ubiquitous, relatively standardized, and of a reliable quality. There will be a clean bed, a desk, good Wi-Fi, free coffee in the lobby and a decent continental breakfast in the morning.

Other journalists like Holiday Inn, and some of the big network hotdogs will fly in and bill their bosses for a really posh downtown Sheraton or Hilton, but when I'm driving several hundred miles to cover a story and free to choose my own accommodations, I'll always go for the Hampton Inn nearest the interstate exit. Accuse me of bias in this matter, if you wish. That’s just how I roll.

How, then, to explain why I spent two nights last week at the Parkview Hotel in downtown Syracuse?

When I'd laid out my itinerary for this trip to cover the Doug Hoffman campaign in New York's 23rd District, I'd been quite specific:

$145 gets me Wednesday night at a Hampton Inn near Syracuse, N.Y. $155 gets me Thursday night at a Hampton Inn near Plattsburgh, N.Y.

And that was honestly my plan. Dick Armey was scheduled to appear Wednesday night at a FreedomWorks meet-up in Cicero, near the Syracuse airport, and so I checked online and found that the nearest Hampton Inn was $145 a night.

When I called, however, I learned they were booked solid. What I hadn't anticipated was that Syracuse University was having "Parents Week," and nearly every hotel in town was full. So scratch the Hampton Inn.

Then, en route to the Wednesday night event, I talked to a source and learned Armey's schedule for his New York trip. After the FreedomWorks meet-up in Cicero, he'd travel Thursday morning to Watertown to announce his endorsement of Hoffman. They would then immediately travel back to Syracuse for a private luncheon, followed by an afternoon press conference where Hoffman would endorse the flat tax. (Syracuse is not in NY23, but is the regional media center covering most of the district.)

This schedule meant I'd have to scratch my itinerary. It made no sense to check out of a Syracuse-area hotel Thursday morning, travel to Watertown, travel back to Syracuse, and then drive several hours to Plattsburgh, arriving late Thursday night. No, clearly the thing to do was to make Syracuse the base for two days, then make a day trip to Plattsburgh on Friday.

An ability to improvise is essential to surviving in the news business. You make your plans for coverage, but then stuff happens and you have to be able to change your plans to fit the story. It's not the kind of business that is suitable to a rigid, uptight personality. How the heck David Brooks spent years as a reporter for the Wall Street Journal is therefore an interesting question, but not one I have time to contemplate now.

So, Wednesday I rolled into Cicero late for the Armey/FreedomWorks meet-up. The Google directions were wrong, and I had to stop twice to ask directions. At the second place, a Byrne Dairy convenience store, a clerk named Greg finally got me pointed the right way. (Greg is a retired Army captain and had a TomTom device in his car.)

Finding the location in Cicero proved maddeningly difficult. I decided to grab a sandwich, text-messaged two of Armey's assistants ("Please call me ASAP.") and waited for them to call. Finally, with one of the assistants directing me by phone, I reached the location, the courtyard of a mall/auto dealership called "Drivers Village."

After the meeting ended I interviewed a few people. When Armey and his crew were preparing to leave, I asked them about the Thursday schedule. Where were they staying? Could I ride with them up to Watertown and back or, failing that, follow them caravan-style?

Well, they had a full vehicle, so I couldn't ride along, but they were staying at the Parkview downtown. Although I figured it would be too rich for my budget, I had to ask, "How much are y'all paying for a room there?"

The answer surprised me: $105 a night. Wow. Forty bucks a night less than the Hampton near the airport, and $50 less than the Hampton in Plattsburgh. So I got directions, drove downtown, walked in the front door of the Parkview, asked the clerk for a room, and 10 minutes later was checked in at this fine hotel, built in 1926 and beautifully appointed in art nouveau style.

Why so cheap? Location, location, location. The lavish, massive, modern Renaissance Hotel is half a block down the street, and if you were a businessman booking a big conference, the newer facility has all the advantages over the quaint Parkview. Market forces thus required the Parkview to offer a lower rate in order to maintain a sufficient level of occupancy to assure profitability.

A free-market guy like Dick Armey could appreciate the beauty of this, as could I, since it meant that I'd spend two nights in elegant style for $90 less than what I'd have paid for accommodations at the Hampton.

No time to relate the whole trip now, as another midnight deadline looms. Here's the opening of my Monday feature article in The American Spectator:

State Route 3 runs through New York's 23rd Congressional District from Hannibal on the west end near Lake Ontario to Plattsburgh on the shore of Lake Champlain that forms the state's eastern border with the Vermont.
From Hannibal, it takes about an hour and a half to drive to Watertown (population 27,310, which makes it one of the district's largest towns). Drive another 115 miles east from Watertown, and State Route 3 crosses a bridge and becomes known locally as River Street. There's a pizza shop on the right as you cross the intersection with Main Street. Just past Church Street on the left, in the former location of a Nice 'n' Easy convenience store, is the main headquarters of the Doug Hoffman for Congress campaign.
Friday afternoon, two campaign staffers and a handful of volunteers were manning Hoffman HQ, stuffing envelopes, answering phones and handing out yard signs to supporters who occasionally dropped in. Unless you were already aware of the news surrounding the Conservative Party candidate in this three-way special election, you'd never suspect that this building in Saranac Lake, N.Y. (population 4,908) was Ground Zero for one of the biggest political stories of the year. . . .

Read the whole thing. It's your contributions to the Shoe Leather Fund that allow me to do this kind of stuff as a freelancer. Editors are happy to get original on-the-scene reporting, but trying to talk them into footing the bill for travel is a hassle. Thanks to you guys, this hassle can be overcome.

I've got some more photos from the trip I haven't posted yet, so we'll let the pictures tell more of the story:

What can the efforts of one reporter/blogger mean in a campaign like this?

Thanks in large part to bloggers like Erick Erickson and Robert Stacy McCain, the race has garnered national attention. In the modern media era, even the most obscure election can set the motion for a conservative comeback . . .

That's from CPAC Director Lisa De Pasquale's Townhall.com column. I'm planning to go back to NY23 Thursday or Friday, so please contribute to the Shoe Leather Fund.

NY23: Thanks to Newt Gingrich, I got quoted by Think Progress!

Kind of a Rule 4 bank shot, as Ben Armbruster writes:

Conservative bloggers are now going after Gingrich for lashing out at his critics, with the Other McCain writing, "I was disgusted just now to see Newt Gingrich's appearance on Greta Van Susteren's Fox News show tonight." "Newt Gingrich disappointed national conservatives again tonight," Gateway Pundit added.

Here's the video of Newt (who taught my mother at West Georgia College circa 1973):

Guess now Armbruster will be chastised by the White House, which claims that Fox News isn't really news . . .

HOFFMANIA: CATCH IT!

Our complete coverage of the NY23 special election

NY23: Report from Ali A. Akbar

Yes, that's his real name, says the grassroots conservative who was at the First National Beef & Brew Pub next to the Doug Hoffman campaign office on Court Street in Watertown, N.Y., when I reached him by phone just now.

Ali is traveling with Eric Odom, who reports that they're "Live From NY23."

According to Ali, he and Eric "just got kicked out of Dede's office" in Watertown, which he reports is "filled with NRCC and NRC staffers."

Ali says he and I actually met at CPAC, but he was too drunk to talk and I was too busy to bother oppressing him. (Maybe next time.) Ali and Eric are staying in Lake Placid through Saturday and say they might be able to provide sleeping-bag space for other volunteers answering the call for "boots on the ground."

Watch for their coverage at 73Wire.com's Campaign Trail.

UPDATE 5 p.m.: At AmSpecBlog, I just linked Eric Odom's report about Scozzafava HQ:

Not only is the NRCC pumping hundreds of thousands of dollars into the media campaign of Dede Scozzafava, they're also organizing and coordinating teams of GOTV volunteers in the district. And they're picking up the tab.
Our team just finished meeting with a NRCC volunteer named "James" who works out of the Watertown office for the Scozzafava campaign. James informed us that he was sent to Watertown, NY from Washington D.C. as a volunteer for the NRCC. We asked about expenses, and he said the NRCC was paying for everything. . . .

Read the whole thing. Your GOP contributions supporting an ACORN-backed Big Labor RINO?

NOT ONE RED CENT!

NY23 EXCLUSIVE: Hoffman to 'hit the road' in district, will NOT attend Conservative Party dinner in Syracuse

Last night I reported that the Doug Hoffman campaign was uncertain whether the candidate would attend tonight's Conservative Party dinner in Syracuse, where Mike Huckabee will be the featured speaker.

Now my source confirms that Hoffman will not attend the Syracuse dinner.

"Doug's hitting the road" to campaign in upstate New York's 23rd District tonight, the source said.

Huckabee's praise for Hoffman last week on the Neil Cavuto show was as good as an official endorsement, the source said and, with polls showing the Conservative candidate with momentum in the three-way race, it's more important for the candidate to do as much on-the-ground campaigning with the Nov. 3 election now just a week away.

An official statement should be out soon.

UPDATE: Doug Hoffman campaign official statement:

"This is a 10 month campaign compressed into 4 weeks. Our schedule changes numerous times every day. The Conservative Party is behind us 110% and Gov. Huckabee all but endorsed us last week on FOX TV. In the last week of the campaign we are focusing on winning over as many voters as possible. So we will be on the road doing just that."

Meanwhile, we have an update from conservative bloggers in NY23: "Ali and Eric's Excellent Adventure."

Not really, Dan

by Smitty

Dan Riehl, in response to a Tim Pawlenty quote on Hot Air:

If the post-World War II period was dedicated to fighting Communism, aren't we now even more fully engaged in fighting socialism, Euro or not, here in the United States?

Socialism is merely the symptom and sales pitch. The Jacksonian Party lays out the disease: aristocracy. This is built on three pillars:

1. 02Feb1913 Amendment 16, the Federal Government has eminent domain over your wallet.
2. 08May1913 Amendment 17, your State has no voice
3. 23Dec1913 The Cosmic Credit Card (which should be cut up)

As a bonus, you can blame McCulloch v. Maryland, where the "Necessary and Proper Clause" was sort of used to shoot the 10th Amendment in the face.

We can all sit around and decry Socialism on theoretical grounds. However, arguing about Socialism seems a bit like quibbling over whether to be in the left of right lane on I-10 as we go tearassin' West on I-10:

The mere presence of Foolish, Dumb-ass Requirements for federal entitlements, which even Ronald Reagan lacked the clout to reform (and I don't think anyone's accusing the Gipper of being Socialist) renders all of these discussions moot. It's not about whether the American experiment goes flying off the left coast into the Pacific. Rather, the question is when.

It may be that "we can't handle the truth." You've got clowns like Gingrich collecting their 30 pieces of silver for the soul of Conservativism. There are some really good signs right of the political middle. The internet has improved communication. Beck, Breitbart, bloggers.

But Socialism remains a bugaboo. You're already neck deep in it. Forget about controlling the flood. Let's talk about the agony involved in draining the swamp. Draining the swamp means restoring Federalism, load-shedding the three bullet points mentioned earlier, and fighting the economic war that dwarfs the global war on terror for seriousness. Large debt for a long time is sin. Call it such and let us repent.

Repentance means offering strong support to leaders who make decisions that are

• in keeping with the spirit and letter of the Constitution
• have the appeal of a bad hangover on an alcoholic

Because that is exactly what I'm talking here: cold turkey. We all know we need it, and we all know it will suck.

Sure, if you want to call that "fighting Socialism", go ahead. I call it "facing reality".

Girl, 15, gang-raped for two hours at California high school homecoming dance

California screaming:

A California high school student who police said was gang raped in a two-and-a-half-hour assault outside a homecoming dance remained hospitalized in stable condition Monday . . .
Nineteen-year-old Manuel Ortega, described as a former student at the school, was arrested soon after he fled the scene and will face charges of rape, robbery and kidnapping, police said.
A 15-year-old was later arrested and charged with one count of felony sexual assault. A third teenager was being interviewed, according to Lt. Mark Gagan of the police department in Richmond, California.
"Based on witness statements and suspect statements, and also physical evidence, we know that she was raped by at least four suspects committing multiple sex acts," Gagan said.
Investigators said as many as 15 people, all males, stood around watching the assault, but did not call police or help the victim, a 15-year-old student at Richmond High School in suburban San Francisco. . . .

Another argument for home-schooling, just in case there is any semi-intelligent parent (i.e., with the minimal IQ necessary to read a blog) who is still sending their children into the organized barbarism of America's dysfunctional government education system.

Lisa De Pasquale: Best. Column. Evah!

"The 23rd district of New York is a Petri dish for the future of the Republican Party. There are three candidates in the race -- Democrat Bill Owens, newly-crowned Republican Dede Scozzafava and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. Thanks in large part to bloggers like Erick Erickson and Robert Stacy McCain, the race has garnered national attention. In the modern media era, even the most obscure election can set the motion for a conservative comeback."
-- Lisa De Pasquale, conservative genius

Czar d'Oz Episode X: Dénouement

by Smitty



Start with the Czar d'Oz Announcement

Synopsis: In the year 2112, the characters retreated to a basement shelter to weather a monster tornado. Making an early trip to the local seat of government, they uncovered information pertaining to an experimental time machine located in Seattle. Making good their escape in the experimental TOTO vehicle, they have made it to the territory of the Southwest Czar. They've survived an encounter with two surreal characters en route Las Vegas. In Vegas they form an alliance with Jefe, the Southwest Czar, to take a short cut to the Emerald City. The trip lands them in Vancouver, Washington, slightly South of the destination. Driving North, they are greeted at the edge of Seattle with a large explosion. Saving the life of Czar d'Oz, they were given the keys to the kingdom, which they turned to their advantage.

[2121. Pike Place Market, in Seattle. A round table across the street from the original Starbucks, which forms the background. Summer. A player on ukelele is off to stage left.]

"America's my girl..."

Peter: We don't get together enough anymore. How are you guys doing?

Martin: Can't complain.

Zeda: Things just couldn't be better.

Julius: I've got something to go on about it, but let's hear from you all first. Peter: how is the election forecast? I heard our Vortex might lose some clout.

Peter: Oh, the usual. Only the candidate with the name 'Obama' seems to have any national credibility. The alternative parties seem to be a bunch of morons, overt criminals, or knuckle-dragging historical throwbacks, as always. The irony is that, for all the Obamas and the Czarocracy have held power all this time, those opposing ne'er-do-wells still manage to foil the best-planned lays of mighty mice and socialist men.

The Obama strategy seems to be (a) Fear the Army of Strawmen, and (b) re-conquer them every election. We've got a few new ploys to make the Flyover Czar and the Northeast Czar look more stupid than usual. And we just broke up another plot to infiltrate the social networking system, like those two Czars did last mid-term.

Julius: Yeah, but the legerdemain is so much more tolerable if you just join the Vortex and participate therein, as we've discovered, haven't we?

Martin: Yep. [Flexing limbs.] Got an iron fist on the supply chain. Staying in spare parts is a breeze. It's tedious, though. I keep having to explain 'fair' for the new meat. After a while, they figure out 'fair' is whatever works for me. They quit asking. Then they start working to arrange stuff. They figure out 'fair' can support them, too. Just as long as it supports me in the end. The chain of command is a beautiful thing. Once everyone is onboard. Eternals are Eternals, Brutals are Brutals. You try to leave the routes open for them to move up. Like we did. But mostly the Brutals are content.

Julius: Sweet, sweet patronage. It's what made Rome great, and it's the glue holding America together. Zeda: how is the acting career going?

Zeda: I'm enjoying it. Getting the scripts past the censors is tough sometimes--

Peter: Sorry to hear that. Are any of them getting too uppity? I can have them re-assigned to voter registration or some other task that will have them dealing with Brutals. That usually helps them be less full of themselves.

Of course, you do understand the need to keep the Brutals pacified, don't you? It's a delicate balance, making sure we hold what we've got. The less clever must be trained to buy into the various "justice" and "rights" myths that we perpetuate, while that entitlement choke-chain stays just loose enough.

Zeda: Yeah, sometimes I want to just do a classic work, like an Oedipus Rex or a Waiting for Godot without having it turned into a variation on the theme of "Beelze-Bush the Anti-Obama", or "opposing the Obamas is racism", or "America the guilty-ful".

Peter: Is there still room for artistic expression while remaining loyal to the group of 17 Eternal Czars?

Zeda: Oh, sure. Let's not look the gift whores in the mouths. Things could be so much worse. I'm just wondering if things couldn't be better if the outcome of all the novels and movies wasn't always predictable.

"...but she has lost her way..."

Julius: An interesting thought. What I wanted to tell you guys about is a cache of history books I found at a dacha in the Cascades. No more detail than that, lest there be repreisals against the original owner. Which should clue you that I'm only telling you this in the strictest confidence--we could lose everything if word gets out.

The thing is that American history is like a parabola. Freedom increased from the Revolutionary War to the Federal Reserve Act. By then, the US government had diminshed the power of the 50 States via income tax and direct election of Senators. Once they had their own bankers, the American aristocracy could germinate. It rose like bread on a yeast of debt and globalization.
The Tea Party movement of the first Obama administration was the last gasp of the original, independent American spirit. However, the neo-aristocrats had such a grip on the media that no amount of exposed scandal could shake their grip.

Too, the knowledge that the amount of debt was so staggering, the pain of facing the decades of systematic larceny, made the glib words and cheap assignments of blame very easy to accept.
Like Israelites in a desert of debt without a Moses, it was easy for the American people to reject freedom, to scuttle the rigors of preparing for a promised land, and to return to the predictable comfort and occasional whip of their overlord of old.

So that parabola of freedom peaked about 100 years ago. We came here from Topeka those years ago to try to escape this modern American debt slavery. The cache of books I found has writings from as late as 20 years ago discussing the efforts around the country to build a network of people dedicated to the spirit of the Founding Fathers, not the neo-aristocratic people who followed them. Are you interested in taking on some risk? Some adventure? Some action to resurrect the ideals upon which this country was founded, not this horrible, decadent Vortex of progressivism?

Peter: I've always felt that change must occur within the system through evolution, not revolution.

Martin: My oath is to support and defend the Constitution. That has been amended to include all of the writings and speeches of Barack Hussein Obama. Maybe you can show that the whole thing isn't working. But I doubt it.

Zeda: Look. I've made it big. I don't feel that guilty about it. And if I do feel guilty, I do an ad supporting the Obamas.

Julius: It was an idea. As adventurous as our road trip in TOTO those years ago. Forget I said anything. Are we allowed to ask how things worked out between you and Barry Cuda?

Zeda: No, but obviously you want more than that. Let's say that he was a slow thinker, in terms of that old lyric by that forgotten local band Heart: "If the real thing don't do the trick / You better think of something quick." Politicians: can't live *with* them, and the more kinetic alternatives will land you in jail.

"...so hear me now lament."

[The ukelele player at stage left picks up a lilting, sad little waltz tune and croons:]

America's my girl,
  but she has lost her way,
    so hear me now lament.

She only wants to play,
  to primp and toss and twirl,
    though all the cash is spent.

For all the wise would say,
  "You've got to pay the rent,
    before the hair you curl,"

To slavery she's bent,
  on sugar daddy day,
    though he be a squirrel.

That foolish element,
  the pig's snout with a pearl,
    still prattles on so gay.

What if she gave a whirl,
  and tried to leave a dent,
    by offering a NAY?

Let freedom's flag unfurl,
  facing fascist flambé,
    becoming confident.

Copyright 2009, Christopher L. Smith

NY23: Hoffman's NY Post endorsement Also: The GOP's Mondello Syndrome

Hat tip to Da Tech Guy for this one, with a succinct summary of the New York GOP's problem:

Scozzafava is the hand-picked candidate of former state GOP chairman Joseph Mondello.

Mondello had the magical ability to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory. Sort of an anti-Midas: Everything he touched turned to crap. Back in August, just before he was forced out of the chairmanship, the Democrats issued a sarcastic statement:

Democrats say they like Mondello' ability to lose state races, including the recent loss of an open congressional seat in the Albany area. Mondello backed Republican Jim Tedisco' failed candidacy.
"The recent chorus of Republican officials calling for Joe Mondello to step down as State GOP chair is disappointing and a step backwards for New York," said Shams Tarek, DSCC spokesman.
"With the New York GOP' recent loss of both the State Senate and the overwhelmingly Republican 20th Congressional District to Democrats, we couldn’t be more pleased with Chair Mondello's work."
"For the benefit of a population completely fed up with years of GOP cynicism and dysfunction in both Washington and Albany, Chair Mondello should remain in place and continue to remove Republicans from office in New York."

Everybody can recognize Mondello as that Peter Principle type of guy, the flawed mediocrity with a glory-hog tendency to take credit for other people's success, so that he keeps getting promoted until, at last, he's in charge of the whole shebang and then -- disaster!

You need to talk to New York conservatives about the Tedisco debacle in the 20th District, if you want to understand how tone-deaf GOP Establishment types like Mondello -- a tool of the old D'Amato Long Island machine -- have bungled away their opportunities and alienated the Republican grassroots.

It's all a backroom old-boys-network. A decade ago, the state GOP chairman hand-picked John Sweeney for the 20th District. A state party staff lawyer, Sweeney subsequently established a reputation as a drunken, corrupt womanizer -- NTTAWWT, in the view of the sold-out GOP hacks who supported him -- and went down in flames in 2006.

Mondello repeated that blunder by picking the clueless Tedisco for the 20th District this year, which one New York blogger summed up this way:

Few party activists are aware that Joe Mondello made the surprising decision to personally chair the meeting in which Jim Tedisco was selected to run for the vacant seat previously held by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. The move was unprecedented, as nowhere in the state election law or the state committee bylaws was the involvement of the state party mandated. . . .
Observers inside and outside the 20th Congressional district have reached a rare consensus about the ghastly display that was witnessed in the election. The Wall Street Journal summed it up neatly: "Republicans lost because they fielded a poor candidate who ran a lousy campaign."

People keep claiming the GOP loses elections by being "too conservative," but that misses the point. The basic problem is this old-boy network way of running campaigns -- the favor-swapping, back-scratching, let's-give-my-college-roommate-a-consulting-contract modus operandi -- that leads to tactical incompetence in the Republican electoral apparatus.

You could write a 50,000-word book and call it The Encyclopedia of Republican Stupidity, Volume One. Maybe 20 volumes would suffice to sketch the outline of what's wrong with a party which managed to fumble away, inter alia, the George Allen 2006 Senate campaign because Dick Wadhams didn't understand Virginia politics.

UPDATE 11:32 a.m.: New poll confirms the Scozzafava meltdown.

NY23: New York Times finally notices there's a congressional election upstate

Their staff writer Jeremy Peters discovers how difficult it is to summarize this thing in 1,100 words:

The conservatives who oppose Ms. Scozzafava have attacked her as they would a Democrat. They have tried linking her to Acorn because of her relationship with the Acorn-affiliated Working Families Party, and they have called her the candidate of big labor because of her endorsement from the New York State United Teachers Union.
The attacks have at times rattled the Scozzafava campaign. Last week, the campaign called the police after a reporter from The Weekly Standard, the conservative magazine, continued to press Ms. Scozzafava to answer questions after she declined to comment. Afterward, Ms. Scozzafava was mocked relentlessly in the conservative blogosphere. . . .

You can read the whole thing, but the most interesting part to me was this:

"The No. 1 victory will be to defeat Dede," said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B. Anthony List, which works to elect candidates who oppose abortion.
Ms. Dannenfelser, along with members of the National Organization for Marriage, which opposes efforts to legalize same-sex marriage, are helping to coordinate efforts on the ground in support of Mr. Hoffman.
At the Days Inn on Sunday, Ms. Dannenfelser, 43, of Arlington, Va., and three other organizers from the Washington area who have temporarily relocated to Watertown joined a conference call with conservatives from across the country. A small picture of Jesus and the Virgin Mary rested on top of the television, while the Pittsburgh Steelers game played with the volume muted. . . .

Very interesting that the New York Times guy got the inside tour of this pro-life HQ in Watertown, but none of my Hoffman campaign sources even mentioned it to me. (Note to self: Chew sources a new one.)

All along, I've figured that a big key for Hoffman would be the Catholic vote in this district. A lot of pro-life Catholics didn't trust John McCain (Episcopalian, IYKWIMAITYD).

Obama got support from some of those "social justice"-type Catholics who spend too much time reading Rerum Novarum. Now that the Obama/Pelosi/Reid axis has shown its true colors, there's a backlash.

Because of the GOP/Conservative split in NY23, this special election really isolates the bedrock conservatives. And I mean "isolate" in the scientific sense, as a chemist would isolate an element, separating it from a mixture. Separated from the Republican herd, Hoffman supporters constitute a profile of the grassroots conservative base: Lot of military veterans, Catholic laymen, small business people, technicians, grandparents worried about the debt that's being heaped on the next generation.

Oh, but you can't tell a story like this in 1,100 words!

UPDATE: Janet Hook of the L.A. Times takes her turn with 1,200 words and misses the point:

McHugh had been easily reelected in the district by wide margins, and Scozzafava's backers say a conservative like Hoffman does not fit the district.
"Her positions on a lot of issues are reflective of the electorate here," said Matt Burns, a Scozzafava spokesman. "If the idea is that every Republican that runs for office needs [to be] someone who fits in Georgia, then it's going to be very, very difficult for Republicans to gain a majority in the House of Representatives."

There's not much evidence from this story that the L.A. Times reporter, who filed under a D.C. dateline, has spent any significant time in the 23rd District.

It's a region of small towns. It has far more in common with rural north Georgia, in terms of culture and economics, than than the Scozzafava's team would have you believe. There are more Catholics than Baptists, but that's really the only major difference. Fort Drum is in the district, and you have a significant military/patriotic element up there.

Even the district's 52% vote for Obama in 2008 is deceptive. As one source pointed out to me, there are several colleges and universities in the 23rd District; Obama no doubt got thousands of his votes from liberal student-activist types who are unlikely to pay much attention to a special congressional election.

Like I said before: Don't believe the MSM.

HOFFMANIA: CATCH IT!

Our complete coverage of the NY23 special election

NY23: Iowahawk Endorsement

by Smitty

Iowahawk's endorsement would seem to be the '55 Chevy dusting the competition off the road at high speed, cruising Hoffman on towards a solid victory.

May the competition fare as well as my entry into the Steel Cage Art Death Match, my crushing loss in which has not left me bitter. Not me. No way. Uh-uh. Jerk.

STOP BUMMING ME OUT, MAN!

Excuse the all-caps shouting, but I just about blew a gasket tonight. I'm now past the 14-hour mark, I got scooped on the NY23 beat twice today -- on the Club for Growth poll and the Pawlenty endorsement -- and spent a lot of time on the phone this evening with my Hoffman sources.

Let me briefly explain the situation up in the 23rd District: Hoffman's got a relatively small paid staff and he's campaigning as a third-party candidate against both the Republicans and Democrats, in the largest geographical congressional district east of the Mississippi River. It ain't a walk in the park up there, OK?

While I generally have a low opinion of Republican campaign staffers -- who tend to treat reporters like crap -- these guys on Hoffman's team have my sympathy. They're spread thin, and working like hell all the time. They must be ordering Red Bull by the case.

Today was absolutely crazy for them, with news breaking faster than anybody could possibly keep up, new ads being produced, a new Democratic TV attack ad airing in the district, etc., etc.

Crazy for them, and crazy for me, too. So then, just after I posted the Fred Thompson ad video, I flip over to Instapundit and see him saying this:

Hoffman's kind of a special case. There's basically no downside. That's not true in 2010. I remember a blog commenter somewhere a while back worrying that Beck would turn out to be a Pied Piper leading people to Third Party self-destruction. In Hoffman’s case that's not really an issue, but a Perot-type candidacy might put the Dems back in bigtime.

And he's writing this irrelevant crap about third parties and 2010 while linking Allahpundit:

What is the endgame? There's a sense I get from watching Beck that he thinks there's a supermajority out there willing to return to Founders-style libertarianism if only he and other conservatives hammer the message hard and long enough. I don't think there is.

Well, f*ck what you think, Allah. We're talking about one congressional election that's now only a week away, and all your forward-looking "Big Picture" theorizing is just a distraction from the fight.

Today, I had the same reaction when I found a couple of commenters squabbling about Hoffman's position on immigration. Here's the thing: What's the deluxe enchilada plate we're looking at now? ObamaCare.

If that passes, we're doomed. Period. Good-bye, US of A. Hello, Sweden.

Doug Hoffman is a sworn opponent of ObamaCare. If a guy like that wins, in an underdog third-party bid where nobody gave him a snowball's chance two weeks ago, what's the message?

The message is that Democrats had better watch out in 2010. If a guy like Hoffman can win in a district that went 52% for Obama less than a year ago, it will be like a flare shot skyward from a ship on a moonless midnight. Add in a victory for Bob McDonnell in Virginia (which also went for Obama last year) and any Democratic senator or congressman with half a brain is going to start thinking, "Ruh-roh. This kinda looks like 1994 all over again."

If Hoffman can pull off a miracle upset victory in NY23, it would be a shot across the bow of Obama, Pelosi and Reid that they won't be able to ignore.

The Blue Dogs will freak out, and the RINOs will start wondering about the possibility of a Tea Party/Club for Growth/Sarah Palin convergence in their GOP primaries. They'll find an excuse to pull the plug on ObamaCare and start looking for opportunities to denounce deficit spending. Heck, you might even see some of them work up the gumption to suggest a vote to extend the Bush tax cuts.

All of this is possible, if Hoffman wins. But a Hoffman win isn't a random hypothetical we can postulate and discuss like we were in some damned poli-sci grad-school seminar. The battle for NY23 is the kind of desperate tooth-and-nail fight that doesn't lend itself to dispassionate theoretical discourse.

At such a time as this, to waste pixels pondering ridiculous fourth-bong-hit-in-the-dorm-room questions -- "Hey, wow, wouldn't a third party be cool?" -- is such a complete waste of time, it's almost a complete waste of time explaining what a waste of time it is.

You're bumming me out, man. Honest to God, you guys are bumming me out.

NY23 VIDEO: New Doug Hoffman TV ad features Fred Thompson

NY23: Newt does Dede's dirty work

I was disgusted just now to see Newt Gingrich's appearance on Greta Van Susteren's Fox News show tonight, when he hit Doug Hoffman with a cheap shot, saying Hoffman "doesn't live in the [23rd] District. (Hey, ask some Georgians if Newt has any room to talk about carpetbagging!)

OK, this is a non-issue, and has been explained several times. Doug Hoffman's hometown, Saranac Lake, is in the 23rd District. Hoffman's current residence is about a 15-minute drive away in Lake Placid, which was also in the 23rd District -- until the (then) GOP-controlled New York legislature gerrymandered the district!

Essentially, the corrupt Republican leadership in Albany were trying to make (then) Rep. John Sweeney's 20th District "safer" for the GOP incumbent. (Sweeney, a former state party staff lawyer, had himself carpetbagged into that district.) Sweeney was tainted by his Abramoff connection, had paid campaign cash to his wife, etc., was defeated in 2006. He alcohol problems landed him a DUI (he blew an 0.18!) in 2007, and another arrest in April of this year.

Class act, this Sweeney, then, the GOP hatchet-man for whom the districts were re-drawn in 2001, putting Hoffman's home in Lake Placid a few miles south of the 23rd District line. Hoffman has been up-front about this all along, and has promised to move into the re-drawn 23rd if he wins on Nov. 3.

So it's a total non-issue, and Dede Scozzafava won't raise it herself because it's a cheap shot and everybody knows it. Instead, she and the NY-GOP send surrogates out to spread this "doesn't-live-in-the-district" stuff against Hoffman.

To see Newt Gingrich playing errand boy for Dede on national TV is just astonishing. Meanwhile, a new press release from Hoffman HQ:

Congressman John Linder (GA-07), former Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (1996-1998), issued the following statement regarding his endorsement of Doug Hoffman: "The biggest concern I have with the Republican candidate in this race is that her long held positions on unions, taxes and spending incline me to believe that she will give Nancy Pelosi a Republican vote so that these many outrageous grabs for power and control will be called 'bipartisan.' I am confident that Doug will not do that."

Another Republican leader joins the conservative grassroots movement that's marching away from Newt.

NY23: It's your call, Mike

Erick Erickson at Red State scooped me today on the Pawlenty story, but that's OK:

With the news today that Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has endorsed Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the three-way congressional race in upstate New York's 23rd District, now the pressure is on former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee to follow suit. . . .

You can read my latest at The American Spectator, and let me call your attention to the real juicy stuff:

Huckabee finds himself in an awkward position . . . Huckabee is due to speak Tuesday night in Syracuse at a New York Conservative Party awards dinner but, as he told [Neil] Cavuto, he won't be giving "an endorsement speech."
Huckabee's speech was scheduled before the NY23 election became the focus of a national political maelstrom. Most New York media expect Hoffman also to attend Tuesday's dinner, although the congressional candidate has not yet publicly announced whether he will attend.
Some Hoffman campaign officials are concerned that, if Hoffman shows up at the Syracuse dinner, it might be viewed as distracting from Huckabee's spotlight. Conservative Party officials don't want to put pressure on their Republican guest of honor. Huckabee won't endorse Scozzafava, and he certainly wouldn't support the little-known Democratic candidate Bill Owens. Therefore, Huckabee's status as a "friendly neutral" in the three-way election may be the best the Hoffman campaign can hope for. . . .

You see the difficulty here for both Huckabee and Hoffman. Huckabee's now a Fox News superstar, and endorsing Hoffman might be a bit too much at a time when the network is fighting the Obama administration's charges that Fox lacks journalistic credibility.

Erick plays rough by including Huckabee together with Mitt Romney in his ultimatum to 2012 hopefuls. Although I've often criticized Huckabee for his political deviations, he seems like a nice guy who means well and, if the Hoffman people don't want to put him on the spot, I'm inclined to go easy.

BTW, my sources don't expect Romney to endorse Hoffman. Ain't gonna happen, I'm told. Still, to recall a famous phrase, do you believe in miracles?

UPDATE: Remind me to chew my sources a new one for not giving me the heads-up on this:

(Hat-tip: Hot Air.) So much for the Huckabee-can't-endorse-because-of-his-Fox-contract theory, I suppose . . .

HOFFMANIA: CATCH IT!

Our complete coverage of the NY23 special election

URGENT: Gingrich increasingly irrelevant!

OK, this isn't exactly news, is it?

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is warning conservative activists that their support for a third-party candidate in a key upcoming New York special election is a "mistake."
In a video captured last week and posted on YouTube Friday, Gingrich told tea party organizer Lisa Miller at a book-signing event that conservatives are inadvertently hindering the cause by backing Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman over Dede Scozzafava, the Republican Party's nominee.

The idea that the backroom boys at GOP-HQ can nominate anybody -- even an ACORN-endorsed liberal like Scozzafava -- and that Republican voters just have to hold their nose and vote for the "R," is the antithesis of a meaningful strategy of conservative reform. Being an unprincipled partisan hack may work for Newt Gingrich's 2012 presidential ambitions, but it simply will not do for grassroots activists.

Pragmatism, I understand. But there is a line across which no plea for pragmatism can cause a conservative to step, and Newt's on the other side of that line.

(Via Memeorandum.)

NY23: Club for Growth poll shows Hoffman (31%) now leading Democrat Owens (27%), Scozzafava third (20%)

Press release from Club for Growth:

A poll released today by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into the lead in the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district to replace John McHugh, the former congressman who recently became Secretary of the Army.
The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll's margin of error is +/- 5.66%. . . .

Read the rest. The poll details are online in PDF format. This could be considered an "internal" poll, but it's the only poll released to date that fully refelects the "call the cops" meltdown by Scozzafava and the Palin endorsement. We're still waiting for the Quinnipiac numbers and the Thursday release of the next Siena poll.

UPDATE: At The American Spectator, Jim Antle writes:

Important caveats: The sample size is small, the undecided vote is large, Hoffman's lead is well within the nearly 6 percent margin of error, and the Club for Growth has endorsed Hoffman.

Of course -- grain-of-salt time. The most important thing in these numbers, however, is the indication that the liberal Republican Scozzafava has slipped into third place.

Remember that NY23 has consistently voted 2-to-1 for the conservative Republican Rep. John McHugh. So if GOP voters in the district perceive Scozzafava as a likely loser, you can expect a decisive shift toward Hoffman by Republican voters whose main concern is not to give Nancy Pelosi another Democratic vote.

If such a shift occurs, and Hoffman gets 60% of the GOP vote, that would likely put him at about 40% -- neck-and-neck with the Democrat Owens in a three-way race, with Scozzafava getting about 20%.

UPDATE II: Filling in for Allahpundit on the pessimism beat, Ed Morrissey says:

Republicans usually win this district easily, so a 4-point lead over a Democrat is still worrisome -- and this is just one poll. Twenty-two percent undecided voters will make the difference.

"Worrisome"? Not really. Hoffman has low name ID, while Scozzafava is part of the GOP leadership team in the NY Assembly. Scozzafava is especially well-known in her legislative district, but that has only about a quarter of the voters in the congressional district. Once Republican voters get the idea that (a) Hoffamn is the conservative, and (b) Scozzafava is a loser, the vote-shift toward Hoffman should be decisive.

An outcome in the range of Hoffman 45%, Owens 35%, Scozzafava 20% is easily possible. There is a TV debate this week, but you aren't likely to have enough public polling afterward to be able to project the final Election Day numbers. Hoffman's had a solid week of good news, and his staff are optimistic, but working hard and keeping their fingers crossed.

Now a Memeorandum thread. We're linked by Reaganite Republican and by Fisherville Mike, who once worked for the guy who's now managing editor of the Watertown (N.Y.) Daily Times.

HOFFMANIA: CATCH IT!

Our complete coverage of the NY23 special election

Czar d'Oz Episode IX: Lab

by Smitty



Start with the Czar d'Oz Announcement

Synopsis: In the year 2112, the characters retreated to a basement shelter to weather a monster tornado. Making an early trip to the local seat of government, they uncovered information pertaining to an experimental time machine located in Seattle. Making good their escape in the experimental TOTO vehicle, they have made it to the territory of the Southwest Czar. They've survived an encounter with two surreal characters en route Las Vegas. In Vegas they form an alliance with Jefe, the Southwest Czar, to take a short cut to the Emerald City. The trip lands them in Vancouver, Washington, slightly South of the destination. Driving North, they are greeted at the edge of Seattle with a large explosion. Saving the life of Czar d'Oz, they are given the keys to the kingdom, which they turn to their advantage.

"...you're more resourceful..."

[A lab scene. A control console with lots of panels at stage left, a raised dias with four pointy gadgets at stage right. Big power panel at stage rear.]

Peter: This lab looks really clean.

Julius: I should hope so. The last experiment was just a few weeks back. It's the new quarter, and, as you might know, there is always a thumb-wrestling match getting all the funds to trickle down from the Treasury to fund the next go-round.

Martin: Is there a lightoff procedure?

Zeda: That would appear to be this. [Pulls out a fat binder from between the display panels at stage left.] Shall we?

Martin: Sure.

Zeda: Ok. Energize all power panels.

Martin: Ok. [He begins energizing breakers. A hum arizes.]

Zeda: Boot control software server.

Julius: That would be this box here. [Reaches under the panel to turn on a CPU box.]

Peter: Ah, Windows XXXVII. Some parasites manage to keep the host alive. We're fully booted, Zeda.

Zeda: Indeed. Run the calibration routine.

Peter: Calibrating.

Zeda: Now, we're agreed that we're escaping to Spring 2008, where we can warn the people that electing a Marxist-in-Centrist clothing is suicide?

Julius: It's already too late at that point. You're only popping a zit, not tackling the acne. We could also consider 1908, and warn the people that the Progressive movement threatens the complexion of American politics, and sets the stage for authoritarian pimples.

Martin: But that's before the electric guitar. Can we make multiple trips?

Peter: Absolutely no idea, but probably not. Ok, the calibration is complete. Everyone has their toothbrushes and valuables? We should assemble on the dias.

[They do.]

Peter: Right. We have a three minute timer, starting…NOW. [He walks from the control panel, across the stage, to join the rest. The timer on the big screen rolls ahead to the final ten seconds.]

(together): 9…8…7…6…5…4…3…2…1...?

Peter: Oh, for crying out loud. I followed the procuedure.

"…than I thought,"

[Enter Czar d'Oz, stage left.]

Czar d'Oz: Yes, Peter, the system worked exactly according to design.

Martin: Nothing happened.

Czar d'Oz: Oh, much has happened in the decades this project has run. Look at this equipment. Look at these buildings. Look at the budget, man. From a bureaucratic perspective, this project is a smashing success.

Julius: But that is a pure fraud!

Czar d'Oz: Fraud, shmaud. All the regional Czars have these pet projects, from warp drive to genetic editing, to artificial intelligence. They're the prime conduit for R&D earmark cash. None of them work, or will work. But we play our game, we do our dance, we take our cash, and then we spend it on more traditional prostitutes.

Peter: The dishonesty shown to the citizens is astonishing.

Czar d'Oz: Look, if everyone is a liar, then no one is. The only problem with the patronage system arises when somebody fails to understand the dichotomy between the written Constitution of the United States and the reality that there hasn't been a legitimate election in decades. This triggers outbursts of whining among youthful idealists.

Zeda: This country has been turned into a third-world hell.

Czar d'Oz: It's the triumph of capitalism. Everything is for sale, including the government. The question is not "should there be business". Rather, it is "should there be more than one real business." The answer, for the last century, has been "NO". Appearances are maintained, celebrated even. The election this November promises to be an outpouring of patriotic fervor unmatched by any previous one. The fact that none of the candidates or the legislation actually matter isn't something that will trouble the Brutals, who shall go on being fed, and receiving medical management until their utility to the Vortex expires.

"…to have escaped that trap."

[Enter a man on crutches, stage right. Barry Cuda, a.k.a. Captain Jacob Kleindrubble, a.k.a Raina Petkoff]

Cuda: I've found you, you bastard.

Czar d'Oz: Well, you're more resourceful than I thought, to have escaped that trap.

Cuda: Your other sons are foppish nitwits. Why don't you just recognize me?

Czar d'Oz: You're an incompetent gambler and a double agent for my foe, Czar Jefe. Admittedly, these are as much features as bugs, but I don't trust you.

Cuda: You've brought in four people from absolutely nowhere and given them massive responsibility!

Czar d'Oz: Oh, come on. These people have no real clout. The easiest way to figure out what they were doing was to appear to give them free reign. It turned out all they wanted was to see the time machine hoax.

I'll tell you what: come back tomorrow with a fresh attitude, and we'll see if you can find some means of regaining my good graces. Come up with a plan. Have it involve guiding the course of the elections this November. Let's increase the family power, shall we? That's the only thing we live for, you know: the power.

[Addressing the four]

So, there's the rub. This country has opted for increasingly centralized control for the last two centuries. It didn't happen over night. Creating the Vortex was a slow project, brought in incrementally for a sleeping, Brutal populace. They could have paid attention, and did not. Blame the victim? Damn right I do.

Your quest, like elections for the last century in this country, was a sham. But at least I got that TOTO car out of it.

Tomorrow: Dénouement

Copyright 2009, Christopher L. Smith

To Larry, the Objectivity Troll

"There have been numerous complaints, in fact, about the publisher allowing me to get away with calling our new Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist a 'swine.' . . .
"Objective Journalism is a hard thing to come by these days. We all yearn for it, but who can point the way? . . .
"With the possible exception of things like box scores, race results, and stock market tabulations, there is no such thing as Objective Journalism. The phrase itself is a pompous contradiction in terms."
-- Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing: On the Campaign Trail '72

At some point, "Larry," I figured out your game. Not just you and your crappy little "objectivity" schtick, but the whole phylum, genus and species of trolldom -- the vermin of the Internet.

You see something online you don't like and appoint yourself a sort of divine hall monitor, endowed with an almighty righteousness that grants you the right to act By Any Means Necessary.

Ah, but two can play at that game, eh? If you attack my career, "Larry" -- implying that my "biased reporting" is inaccurate unsubstantiated, or otherwise worthless -- when I have busted my hump to provide exclusive coverage of the NY23 special election, you must expect that I would be curious about your motives for doing so. Therefore, you sign yourself as "Larry" without any other identifier and with no explanation of why you have appointed yourself hall monitor on this story.

Well, I know your game, buddy. Don't know who you are or what your specific interest is in attacking my reporting on NY23, but I certainly know your game.

Since the Spectator switched online software and began permitting comments on articles, I've repeatedly asked the editors to do something about their troll problem, requests unheeded -- and that's OK. It's their publication and they are free to pursue whatever comments policy (or non-policy) they choose.

Here, I'm the boss. Comments are moderated, and for a specific reason. Readers are free to debate any issue they want -- "Christina Hendricks' breasts: Real or fake?" -- from whatever perspective suits them. However, unlike some other Blogs That Need Not Be Named, this site is not about me posting a few links, adding some snark, and then turning it over to the commenters.

If you don't appreciate what we do here, you are free to go elsewhere for your online amusement. Unlike those Blogs That Need Not Be Named, this isn't an exclusive club where commenting is limited to registered members, who must gauge their words so as not to run afoul of the Banning Stick. Nobody's ever banned, but some comments are rejected.

Me? I believe in freedom. You are free to call me an @$$hole, and I'm free to reject the comment. You are also free to start a blog called "Stacy McCain Is An @$$hole," and I am free to ignore it.

As I've often said, just because you don't know what I'm doing, don't assume that I don't know what I'm doing. There are plenty of places you can troll, "Larry," but you can't troll here.

Project Valour IT

by Smitty

Project Valour IT is sponsored by Soldiers Angels and is a very worthy cause. Little Miss Attila and Cassandra are pitching it rather heavily for the Marines.

Let's not kid ourselves: the country's chief engagements at the moment are quite land-intensive. However, I knew personally at least one Navy casualty, whose father was the Commanding Officer of USS MyFirst. God rest your souls, my classmates.

Remember the military in your thoughts and prayers, and let the Department of the Navy always lead the way.

Update: Another squid sited.

'I'm as happy to be here as Roman Polanski at a Hannah Montana concert'

So says Jonah Goldberg, about 56 minutes into the video of an Accuracy in Media conference about ACORN and vote fraud.

'Axiomatic' Andy

"Notice that for Buchanan in this column, it is axiomatic that America was once defined by its whiteness."
-- Andrew Sullivan

Really? Rather than trusting entirely to Mr. Sullivan's judgment, let us consult the Buchanan column whereof he speaks, and see how the subject of race is introduced. The column begins:

In the brief age of Obama, we have had "truthers," "birthers," tea party activists and town-hall dissenters.
Comes now, the "Oath Keepers." And who might they be? . . .

(I hesitate to answer "kooks," because I don't actually know any of these people, and Mr. Buchanan quotes as his source a columnist for a Las Vegas newspaper, so this is all third-hand anyway. Never mind, then. But it is not until Mr. Buchanan's ninth paragraph that the subject of race is introduced by reference to that notorious Southern bigot, Jimmy Carter.)

As with Jimmy Carter's long-range psychoanalysis of Joe Wilson, the reflexive reaction of the mainstream media will likely be that [the Oath Keepers] are militia types, driven to irrationality because America has a black president. . . .

(OK, the connection between phenomenon A -- the Oath Keepers -- and phenomenon B -- the remarks of former President Carter -- seems kind of tenuous here, but a few paragraphs later, Mr. Buchanan introduces other sources.)

[Progressives] cannot comprehend what would motivate Middle America to distrust its government, for it surely does, as Ron Brownstein reports in the National Journal: "Whites are not only more anxious, but also more alienated. Big majorities of whites say the past year's turmoil has diminished their confidence in government, corporations and the financial industry. ... Asked which institution they trust most to make economic decisions in their interest, a plurality of whites older than 30 pick 'none' – a grim statement."
Is all this due to Obama's race?
Even Obama laughs at that. . . .

Well, you can read the rest. What is declared "axiomatic" by Sullivan -- who goes on to accuse Mr. Buchanan of engaging in revisionist racial demagoguery -- is by no means evident from a straightforward reading of this column.

It is the liberal Mr. Brownstein (who has never been accused of hatemongering, except perhaps by Republicans) whose quote is the orange cone around which Mr. Buchanan's column pivots to discuss in depth the context wherein white voters are "anxious" and "alienated." And Mr. Buchanan then cites no less an authority than President Obama for dismissing this specific idea.

Obviously, given Mr. Buchanan's history, there are penumbras and emanations that might cause him to be suspected of "speaking in code." But is it not possible that Mr. Brownstein's reference to "anxious" and "alienated" whites was also a way of speaking in code, namely the Frankfurt School language that gave us Theodor Adorno's The Authoritarian Personality and Richard Hofstadter's The Paranoid Style in American Politics?

More to the point, however, whose basic analysis of the phenomenon -- the poll numbers cited by Mr. Brownstein -- is more factual and reasonable? Which of them addresses the topic with more accuracy, insight and authority?

While there are many Tea Party activists who would not welcome Mr. Buchanan as a speaker at their next event, I dare say if Andrew Sullivan attempted to speak at a Tea Party rally, no one would hear a word he said because of the cacaphony of boos and jeers from the crowd. They might even call him ugly epithets like "Limey."

But what do I know? All I've done is cover the largest rally of the Tea Party movement. I'm not a British expat with a Harvard degree and a beach house in Provincetown, so please ignore my opinion.

Mr. Sullivan is an expert, and surely I know even less about the motives of American populists than Patrick J. Buchanan, whom Mr. Sullivan so airily accuses of "hateful hackery."

(Via Ann Althouse.)

UPDATE: Speaking of posh Brits, it seems some people have decided they're generally a nuisance.

NY23: Ordinary Americans make miracles happen; start doing what you can

Letter to the editor, Watertown (N.Y.) Daily Times:

It has recently come to my attention that the Republican Party bosses met behind closed doors to select the candidate for the special election to fill the vacancy created by the appointment of John McHugh to the office of Army secretary.
They selected Dede Scozzafava, a liberal member of the state Assembly. She received the same Planned Parenthood award that was awarded to Hillary Clinton. With President Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi pushing an anti-life agenda through the House, we do not need another pro-abortion politician in Washington.
Let's send a message: both the Democratic and Republican candidates are pro-abortion, but the Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman is pro-life. On Nov. 3, pull the lever for Doug Hoffman on the Conservative line and cast a vote for life.
Ann Dougherty

To repeat what I wrote in "Memo to the Grassroots":

One of the problems that hinders grassroots activists from making a difference is that they see problems so big that they think to themselves, "What's the point? I'm just one person. I'm not important. Why waste my time? There's nothing I can do anyway." . . .
The reason the GOP national leadership is so out of touch is because too many grassroots conservatives don't know how to fight back against the RINOs and sellouts and self-serving GOP headquarters staffers who collect fat paychecks for screwing up over and over again. . . .

If you haven't read that essay yet, you should do so now. Because if all you're going to do is sit around whining, "What can I do?" you're part of the problem, not part of the solution.

Don't become discouraged and start telling yourself that you can't do anything to fight back. Doing the little things you can do -- like sending short, clear, well-reasoned letters to the editor of your local paper -- is the key to successful grassroots activism. "Steady licks kill the Devil," they say.

Ms. Dougherty's letter boiled down to its essence a key point about the NY23 special election, namely that it was the "lords of the backroom" who picked Scozzafava as the GOP candidate. How many people in the 23rd District are really aware of that dirty little secret? With that one letter, then, Ms. Dougherty may have struck an important blow for Hoffman by helping inform local readers about the real story of this election, namely the battle between the grassroots and the out-of-touch Republican elite.

That's just one example of the difference the Ordinary American can make, if you'll ignore those pessimistic Eeyores who are always spreading negative gloom and doom by telling you there's no point trying, because you're certain to lose. If Doug Hoffman had listened to that kind of advice -- when he was growing up poor, pumping gas at age 14 to earn money -- he never would have become a successful businessman, and he sure wouldn't be running for Congress today.

The Doug Hoffman campaign collected $116,000 online in a single day last week. This morning, I spoke with a campaign source who told me that the overwhelming majority of those donations were in the $20-$50 range.

Think about that. Raising a six-figure sum -- in one day! -- with the average donor contributing less than $35. If you haven't kicked in yet, what are you waiting for? And if you've already given the Hoffman campaign $20 or $50, how about another $10 or $20 just to say, "Keep up the good work?"

HOFFMANIA: CATCH IT!

Our complete coverage of the NY23 special election

(Cross-posted at Hot Air Greenroom and Not One Red Cent.)

NY23: Pawlenty and Huckabee MIA?

Rachelle Friberg points out:

Tim Pawlenty and Mike Huckabee have something in common other than the fact that they are prominent Republican men. The commonality these men share is the fact that they have yet to endorse the third-party Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd District Race. . . .

Read the whole thing. I don't know what Pawlenty's excuse is; perhaps Huckabee's Fox News contract might prevent him from openly endorsing candidates. But as TPM notes, Huckabee did everything but endorse Hoffman during an appearance last week on Neil Cavuto's show:

"Certainly his views represent more closely to mine," said Huckabee. "I'm not taking a role in that with my PAC, simply because I feel like it would be inappropriate with me at this point -- mainly because I'm already speaking to the Conservative Party next week. But it is not an endorsement speech, it is an awards speech, and I don't want to get the two confused."

Speaking of liberal Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava, Huckabee said he couldn't "support somebody who does not believe that every human life has value and meaning," and also criticized Scozzafava's support for the TARP bailout. Here's the video:

Huckabee will speak Tuesday in Syracuse at the Conservative Party's annual recognition dinner. I haven't spoken to Mrs. Other McCain yet about plans for further coverage of the NY23 special election, but if y'all want me to go back, please contribute to the Shoe Leather Fund.

Actually, I might need to start calling it the "New Tire Fund." This last road-trip was more than 1,300 miles, and the tires on the 2004 KIA Optima are starting to look a little worn, which could be risky when I'm making the Watertown-to-Plattsburgh run at 95 mph.

Y'all may think I'm kidding about how fast I drive when I'm in a hurry (and I'm always in a hurry) but I take notes while I'm on the road to help me keep track of where I was and what I was doing during my trips.

At 1:53 p.m. Friday, I left Watertown, N.Y., en route to Saranac Lake. At 2:41, I stopped at Nice 'n' Easy Shoppe #2802 in Harrisville, and 12 minutes later -- at 2:53 --was on the road again. By 3:46, I was at Tupper Lake, 60 miles to the east. Google Maps estimates the drive time as an hour and 31 minutes, but I did it in 53 minutes -- on a two-lane highway clogged with slow-moving morons and where some small towns have local speed limits as low as 30 mph.

And to the old lady in the burgundy Ford Probe who flipped me off when I blew past her on State Route 3: I forgive you.

HOFFMANIA: CATCH IT!

UPDATE: Just scored an exclusive for The American Spectator: Hoffman Campaign Seeks 'Boots On the Ground' vs. ACORN.

Linked at Memeorandum. Meanwhile the Reaganite Republican blog comments:

For the Republicans to offer such a liberal candidate as Dede Scozzafava -- thereby inspiring this competitor from the NY Conservative Party -- truly boggles the mind . . . and sure helps make the case that the GOP is often out-of-touch with the party's base

.Our complete coverage of the NY23 special election

Rule 5 Sunday

by Smitty

Prepping Rule 5 Sunday rather early this time, as I have a flight to catch this evening. Nevertheless, the faithful readers have provided copious input, for which Rule 5 Sunday is grateful.

• Bob Belvedere starts us off with a crucial message from Betty Page. Nearly as important is a roundup of Star Trek Rule 5-age. Where is the green one?
• Support Your Local Gunfighter has some hockey babes.
• Honesty in Motion features Victoria Silvstedt.
• The House of Eratosthenes followed up the Classic Liberal's Rachael Leigh Cook with some "Common Good" thoughts. Returning to his long-term Alphabet of Pulchritude project, he reaches for Kelly Brook and Leeann Tweeden. From where those bodyguards came is completely unknown.
• The Daley Gator was the first in the queue with linky-love for the Girl in a T-Shirt special edition.
• Yankee Phil is back with more Shakira. Sorry about last week, boss. He also payed homage to the great Katherine Hepburn.
• HotMES has politics and dudes in mind, featuring an Aaron Schock/Jeff Flake comparison.
• Instapundit reveals an interest in...pipe cleaners?
• Troglopundit touts his .040 batting average for the most-searched women on the web. Go ahead and try being a Great Lakes amphibian and beating a .040 average. He celebrates. Then he switches to the "we just haven't settled on the price" discussion.
  Rule 5 Sunday is saddened by the rampant moral decay present in Trogland. Or maybe he's just preparing for Winter.
• Fishersville Mike features Halloween costumed cheerleaders.
• Smash Mouth Politics does a fine job of mingling beautiful ladies and beautiful cars.
• Iowahawk achieves the same effect with more exotic cars and less famous women.
• DC Handgun Info has a post that crosses the Potomac, where it found Christy Turlington. Every post should be so clever.
• American Power reveals a cheeky fixation on Britney. He adds Camilla Belle to the mix.
• McEnroe has a tongue-in cheek cartoon, and a Jean Arthur clip.
• Boom Boom Boom weighs in with a potential threat to the Lingerie Football League.
• Daley Gator has a game show clip for your attention.
• Reboot Congress had a picture of Dana Loesch. Don't let the drop-dead gorgeous looks distract: she's an incredibly smart lady.
• Dustbury plays the Tina Turner card. Excellent choice, sir.
• Point of a Gun features a Liz Phair track. But has Liz ever stepped up to the plate and done a Metallica cover?
• Paco Enterprises features Eleanor Powell, in his classic way.
• Rightofcourse goes coast to coast with Florida and USC cheerleaders.
• Robert Pearson's Chess Blog has some chess chicks and finishes us off. RPCB was featured on the FMJRA and the Rule 5 Sunday, because the posts fit and he admitted to enjoying Czar d'Oz, in a private email. So there.

Please send updates and complaints to Smitty. Stacy handles the praise and the contributions.

NOTE (RSM): Smitty is en route to Ye Merry Olde this week, but promises to keep blogging even if he does have to eat boring boiled food and drive on the left side of the road. Speaking of contributions, however . . .

I'm serious about the need to hire a blog intern to help maximize efficiency around here. This past week -- me out on the road in New York, phoning in reports via Jimmie Bise -- was a perfect example of how having just a little extra help can come in handy.

Among other things, a blog intern would help keep up with the e-mail, phone and Facebook messages, do online promotion, assist with research and do occasional blogging. The pay would be low and erratic, dependent upon tip-jar contributions and other revenue, but the experience would be quite variable.

My home office is about 70 miles north of Washington, D.C., and -- at least for the first week or two -- the intern would need to work here for direct supervision. Once things were running smoothly, however, the work could be done wherever.

When I had Myers the Blog Intern, people made "Kramerica" jokes about the "Seinfeld" episode where Kramer had his own personal intern. All joking aside, however, this would be a real educational opportunity for a young (or not-so-young) conservative who wants to develop blogging skills. So send me an e-mail if you're interested or know someone who might be.

NY23: Hoffman says, 'Take back the party!'

In a column for the New York Post:

At this time, three months ago, I was wrestling with a decision. A decision as to whether or not to run in a special election to fill the seat vacated by the new secretary of the Army, John McHugh. If you had told me 90 days later I would be penning an op-ed piece for the New York Post, I would have laughed in disbelief. I would have laughed even louder had you told me that I would be receiving endorsement and support from political leaders like Fred Thompson, former Majority Leader Dick Armey, or Sarah Palin . . .
You see I’m not a professional politician; I've never sought elected office. I grew up poor in Saranac Lake, in the heart of the Adirondacks. My siblings and I were raised in a single-parent household by our mother. We worked to help her pay the mortgage. But, like so many others in this great land, I worked hard, got a good education, did a six-year stint in the military, married, landed a good job with a "big eight" accounting firm and started living the American dream.
It's funny what can happen in America, when you are able to dream and have the courage to follow your dreams. . . .

Read the whole thing. What Hoffman says about not being a "professional politician" is very important. Doug Hoffman's campaign has been likened to Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, but it could also be compared to Revenge of the Nerds.

Watching Hoffman get introduced at events Thursday by former House Majority Leader Dick Armey -- gregarious, extroverted, a natural-born Texas-style storyteller -- was a stark contrast. Hoffman is a quiet man who has never had any direct involvement in politics, and it shows. His speeches aren't a memorized list of talking-points and well-timed applause lines.

If it's slick speech-making and "charisma" you're looking for, that ain't Doug Hoffman. I've said before that some guys (e.g., Bill Clinton) go into politics for the same reason teenage boys learn to play guitar. IYKWIMAITYD. And that ain't Doug Hoffman, either. If he's elected to Congress, Hoffman will instantly become No. 1 on any list of "Washington Politicians Least Likely to Be Involved in a Sex Scandal." The guy's an accountant, for crying out loud.

However, if you study his life story -- Hoffman took a job pumping gas at age 14 to help support his family -- you understand that, beneath his nerdy exterior, there is a man of real character. And his willingness to step up to the plate and take on the GOP Establishment in this special election is another example of that.

Conservatives nowadays often complain that we don't have "another Reagan," but maybe that's not what we need. Maybe what we really need is a grassroots movement so powerful, so energized, that it doesn't have to wait around for the next Ronald Reagan to show up. (See "Memo to the Grassroots.")

Maybe what we need is a grassroots so fired up it can elect a real conservative, even if he isn't a telegenic media superstar or a dynamic public speaker.

HOFFMANIA: CATCH IT!

UPDATE: Linked by Pat Austin at So It Goes in Shreveport, by Donald Douglas at American Power, and by Al B. at Free Republic. Meanwhile:

• I blogged about Rachelle Friberg's question of where 2012 GOP contenders Tim Pawlenty and Mike Huckabee stand on the Hoffman campaign.
• The Politico reports that the national Republican Party "leaders" are planning to spend big bucks attacking Hoffman, with a "top GOP official" derogating the Hoffman campaign in a way that Erick Erickson finds insulting.
• Please see my latest Hot Air Greenroom post, "Ordinary Americans Make Miracles Happen -- Start Doing What You Can!"

Our complete coverage of the NY23 special election

NY23: Hanging with Jeremy and Tony; Can You Volunteer for Hoffman Campaign?

Just in case anyone didn't see the video I shot Friday in the Plattsburgh, N.Y., office of the Doug Hoffman campaign, I've now posted it in the Hot Air Greenroom. And here's a photo of Hoffman volunteers Jeremy Kain and Tony Maglione chilling out after Friday's meeting:

These two guys are buddies from Plattsburgh -- they know each other from attending St. Peter's Church -- and when Tony held a Hoffman fund-raiser at his house in September, Jeremy was one of the guys he invited. So now these two average citizens are at Ground Zero in a campaign of national significance.

When I arrived at the Hoffman headquarters in Saranac Lake earlier Friday, I was frankly surprised that the office wasn't swarming with College Republican volunteers and Tea Party activists from across the country. There were about a half-dozen people in the office. Phones were ringing off the hook, people were walking in to ask where they could get yard signs, and there was an obvious need for more volunteers to help out with the campaign.

The Hoffman campaign is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for people to get involved in an election that could make a huge national impact. Maybe you're a college student. Maybe you're a retiree. Maybe you're just an ordinary working American who's tired of watching the GOP Establishment run roughshod over the conservative grassroots.

The message is simple: The Hoffman campaign needs you. If you can take a few days off work to go help out in NY23, they'll find something for you to do -- answering phones, distributing yard signs, canvassing precincts, whatever. Just contact the Hoffman campaign and tell them you want to come help. Here's that video one more time:

HOFFMANIA: CATCH IT!

Our complete coverage of the NY23 special election